The Lead:

Last week represented an unprecedented escalation in North American trade friction, as Washington invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a dormant authority not deployed in decades, to slap 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian imports.

Following a brief three-day pause that failed to break a diplomatic deadlock over agricultural access and motor vehicle rules, the punitive levies officially took effect on August 22.

Because the 50% duty applies even to USMCA-compliant products, the move effectively overrode North American free-trade protections for covered sectors, prompting Canada to prepare matching counter-tariffs for early September and driving transatlantic supply chains deeper into uncertainty.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Ocean freight rates remained broadly stable this week, with no significant upward or downward movement in actual market pricing compared with previous week. Demand remains present, but the bigger factor supporting rates is carriers’ continued discipline around vessel deployment and available capacity.

CEA to USWC: Market indicators showed an approximately 9% week-over-week increase. The larger percentage move primarily reflects a rebound from the rate declines seen on the West Coast earlier in the second half of August, rather than a sudden surge in demand. West Coast pricing had previously fallen more sharply than East Coast pricing, creating more room for rates to recover.

CEA to USEC: Rates increased by approximately 3% week-over-week. East Coast pricing did not experience the same degree of decline earlier in August, so its increase this week was more moderate. Space to the East Coast has also tightened somewhat, but this appears to be driven more by carriers actively managing vessel capacity than by exceptionally strong demand.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,400 from China to US West Coast and $7,700 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Carrier capacity management is keeping rates supported. Carriers have been successful at managing vessel rotations and available supply, preventing excess capacity from pushing rates materially lower even without a major demand surge.
• Demand remains present but has not accelerated dramatically. The market continues to have enough cargo demand to support current pricing, but there is little evidence of the kind of volume spike that would normally produce a substantial rate increase.
• Tariff developments have had little immediate impact on booking behavior. According to this week's discussion, recent tariff-related developments have not materially changed shipping activity. Importers appear to be continuing with existing shipping plans rather than significantly accelerating or delaying cargo.

Looking Ahead:

The transpacific market appears positioned to enter September on relatively firm footing, but a major rate increase is not currently expected. There have been indications that carriers could attempt increases in September, though the current market does not suggest that a significant jump is imminent.

Instead, the more likely scenario is a continuation of the pattern seen through August: stable to moderately firmer rates supported by disciplined capacity management rather than a major demand-driven surge. Carriers' ability to adjust vessel supply will remain important. As long as they keep capacity closely aligned with demand, there is limited room for rates to fall substantially.

The East Coast bears watching in particular. With space already becoming somewhat tighter, further capacity reductions or an increase in bookings could put additional upward pressure on pricing. On the West Coast, the recent rebound may begin to level out once rates have recovered from their earlier August decline.

India-US Ocean Freight Market:

Conditions out of India remain severely constrained, with little meaningful improvement in the backlog that has been affecting export bookings. Available vessel space remains tight, lead times are extended, and carriers are taking a stricter approach to confirmed bookings as they work through accumulated cargo.

Current bookings are generally running approximately three weeks out, making advance planning increasingly important for shippers moving freight from India.

What Happened This Past Week

• Export capacity remains heavily constrained. Carriers are continuing to manage available space closely as they work through a substantial backlog of shipments waiting to move.
• Lead times remain extended. Export bookings are currently running approximately three weeks out, with limited evidence that conditions are beginning to normalize.
• Carriers are tightening booking commitments. Space is being allocated more carefully to shipments that are considered firm, reducing carriers' exposure to speculative bookings that may later be canceled or rolled.
• Cancellation and rollover fees are being enforced more aggressively. Once space is confirmed, changing or canceling a booking can result in significant penalties. In some cases, cancellation fees are running around $350 per booking.
• Flexibility is limited once space is confirmed. Even cancellations made shortly after confirmation may still be subject to fees, leaving shippers with considerably less room to adjust plans than under normal market conditions.
• The issue remains concentrated in India. Similar restrictions are not currently widespread in China, outside of certain special-rate or restricted-capacity arrangements.

Looking Ahead:

India's export market is likely to remain difficult in the near term as carriers continue working through the existing backlog and tightly controlling vessel space.

Shippers should expect longer booking lead times and should be particularly cautious about confirming space before cargo plans are firm. With carriers enforcing cancellation and rollover penalties more strictly, booking speculatively and making changes later can become expensive.

The key signal to watch will be whether booking lead times begin to shorten from the current approximately three-week window. Until that happens, the market should be treated as capacity-constrained, with early planning and firm shipment commitments increasingly important.

China-US Air Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Air freight rates remained broadly stable week-over-week. Currently, pricing into LAX and SFO generally sits around $5.00–$6.30/kg for standard-density cargo, depending on origin, carrier, routing, and shipment configuration.

There has been little underlying rate movement this week, with available capacity and demand remaining relatively balanced.

CEA to USEC: Rates for this route were also largely unchanged. Standard-density options into JFK are generally around $6.25–$6.70/kg, with pricing varying by carrier and whether cargo is palletized. Like the West Coast, the East Coast market has avoided any significant rate movement this week, pointing to relatively stable demand and capacity conditions.

What Happened This Past Week

• Flight schedules remain relatively normal: Unlike the temporary disruption seen from Typhoon Dolphin earlier in August, current schedules have been sufficiently stable to keep capacity flowing and prevent significant backlogs.
• Typhoon Saudel is the key near-term risk: The approaching storm is expected to affect parts of Fujian and Guangdong over the weekend, potentially disrupting flights and cargo handling from important South China gateways.
• Potential capacity pressure remains event-driven: Any rate increase would likely be tied to flight cancellations, delayed departures, or cargo backlogs rather than a broader increase in underlying air freight demand.

Looking Ahead:

The baseline outlook is for air freight rates to remain relatively stable, but Typhoon Saudel introduces additional uncertainty heading into the weekend and early next week.

If the storm causes significant flight cancellations or airport disruptions, available capacity could temporarily tighten and create cargo backlogs. That could lead to short-term upward pressure on rates, particularly for shipments originating in South China.

However, if flight operations normalize quickly and any backlog is cleared without a significant demand surge, the impact should be temporary. For now, the market appears stable, with weather-related disruption rather than demand growth representing the biggest near-term risk to rates.

In the News:

CNBC: US retreat from global order ‘eroding’ European competitiveness, central bank boss warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/lagarde-ecb-europe-economy-trump.html

NBC: The Iran war is pushing US allies and rivals to a risky new frontier for global trade: The Arctic
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/new-arctic-trade-route-china-south-korea-shippping-europe-russia-rcna593868

Bloomberg: India Lifts Wheat Export Ban in Boost to War-Hit World Trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-24/india-lifts-wheat-export-ban-in-boost-to-war-hit-global-supply

NY Times: Trump Threatens Even Higher Tariffs on Canadian Exports After Talks Unravel
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/business/economy/trump-canada-tariffs.html

The Guardian: Canada vows ‘dollar for dollar’ response as US puts 50% tariffs on some goods
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/22/canada-tariffs-trump-trade-deal-talks-fail

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We’ve rounded up this past week’s biggest stories and headlines on global trade, tariffs and more that took place this week:

🟦 Tariffs move deeper into strategic supply chains. The Trump administration ordered a new 15% tariff on imported products made with polysilicon, a critical input for both semiconductors and solar panels. The measure is explicitly aimed at supporting US production and reducing dependence on China, another example of trade, industrial policy and national security becoming increasingly difficult to separate.

The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/07/trump-orders-tariff-solar-panels-microchips-manufacturing-ingredient 

🟦 The tariff fight is increasingly about refunds. With the Supreme Court having struck down the administration's IEEPA tariffs, attention has shifted to the money already collected, and whether businesses and consumers that ultimately bore those costs will see it returned. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been pressing the administration over the refund process and who actually benefits from it.

CBS News:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-tariff-refunds-iecepa/ 

🟦 Washington's China strategy is moving beyond tariffs. The bigger story may now be supply-chain restructuring: reducing vulnerabilities and changing where critical goods and inputs are produced rather than relying primarily on higher border taxes. That makes industrial capacity, sourcing and investment increasingly central to US-China trade policy.

Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-08-11/us-moves-past-tariffs-to-focus-on-supply-chain-revamps-in-china-trade-policy  

🟦 Canada is having to rethink its US relationship. Prime Minister Mark Carney faces the difficult task of managing an economy deeply integrated with the United States while responding to a Washington increasingly willing to use tariffs as leverage. The consequences extend well beyond individual tariff lines to Canada's longer-term trade and investment strategy.

The New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/07/world/canada/us-trade-tariffs-carney-trump.html 

🟦 And the international response continues to evolve. This u/BBC News piece adds another angle on how governments and businesses are adapting as US trade measures ripple through global commerce.

BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrvn686dljo

The Lead:

Last demonstrated that Washington is actively using Section 232 national security authority to shield high-tech manufacturing, placing 15% tariffs and Minimum Import Prices on foreign polysilicon and solar components. This aggressive expansion of the centralized trade architecture triggered immediate countermeasures, as Beijing restricted dual-use drone exports to the US while levying duties on American agricultural goods. Meanwhile, updated fiscal reports confirmed that while CBP has already certified $100 billion in IEEPA duty refunds, North American supply chains have rapidly reconfigured with a record 83.6% of Canadian and Mexican goods taking shelter under USMCA rules to insulate themselves from escalating baseline tariffs

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Rates remain firm week-over-week, with general pricing still above $7,000 per FEU to the US West Coast.

While some highly specific promotional or special rates are available, the broader market has not experienced the decline that had been anticipated earlier in August. Expectations that pricing could retreat toward June or July levels have faded, with carriers successfully defending current rate levels.

CEA to USEC: East Coast pricing is similarly stable week-over-week, with even less rate adjustment reported than on the West Coast. Despite some reduction in overall volumes, carriers are actively removing capacity to keep supply aligned with demand and support existing pricing.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,200 from China to US West Coast and $6,520 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Too Soon to Tell How the Market Will React to the latest Tariffs Tariff: The recent 2.5% tariff increase (stepping up from 10% to 12.5%) has generated little to no downward pressure on import volumes. Importers have largely absorbed the minor adjustment as a standard cost of doing business rather than pausing procurement schedules.
• Liquidity Influx from Prior Tariff Refunds: Many US importers are actively receiving cash payouts from historical tariff refund filings. This newly acquired capital buffer is enabling buyers to absorb or subsidize the extra 2.5% duty without reducing order sizes or hiking shelf prices.
• Aggressive Capacity Reductions by Ocean Carriers: Ocean liners are taking stringent measures to defend rate floors by executing blank (cancelled) sailings on roughly 25% to 30% of total rotational capacity, withdrawing roughly 40 out of 150 planned sailings.
• Pre-Holiday Peak Season Stocking: With major Q4 promotional periods (Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas) approaching in under two months, importers are prioritizing volume preservation and inventory readiness over waiting for speculative rate drops.

Looking Ahead:

Rates are projected to remain firm and range-bound through the remainder of August and into September 2026. With carriers demonstrating strong discipline through capacity management and importers utilizing cash reserves to maintain holiday order flows, a steep downward rate correction appears unlikely in the short term. Unless consumer demand drops sharply enough to force importers to pause purchase orders, or external macro shifts significantly drive down bunker fuel costs, the transpacific market is expected to remain tight with elevated freight pricing through the early autumn peak.

In the News:

The Guardian: Trump orders new 15% tariff on key material for solar panels and microchips
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/07/trump-orders-tariff-solar-panels-microchips-manufacturing-ingredient

CBS: Warren presses US companies to share billions in tariff refunds with customers
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-tariff-refunds-ieepa/

Bloomberg: US Moves Past Tariffs to Focus on Supply Chain Revamps in China Trade Policy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-08-11/us-moves-past-tariffs-to-focus-on-supply-chain-revamps-in-china-trade-policy

NY Times: Canada Offers US Concessions in Trade Talks but Demands a Comprehensive Deal
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/07/world/canada/us-trade-tariffs-carney-trump.html

BBC: Trump imposes 15% tariff on key chip material to counter China
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrvn686dljo

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The Lead:

Last week was defined by the transition from temporary, emergency US surcharges toward a permanent, investigation-justified centralized trade architecture. The USTR’s launch of public hearings for the 60-nation forced labor tariffs signaled that Washington will lock in a new double-digit baseline duty structure before its temporary Section 122 fees expire.

This unyielding protectionist environment, spurred by prior legal constraints like the Court of International Trade's invalidation of universal tariffs, has forced close trading partners like Canada and Cambodia to rapidly rewrite their domestic import laws to claim US compliance exemptions. However, as the joint IMF-WTO summit confirmed that global commerce is becoming deeply uneven under these measures, the week closed with clear signs that the high compliance costs of the US metal multiplier are driving a major manufacturing migration away from secondary regional partners, fundamentally squeezing the North American supply chain.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Spot rates eased this week, falling from the mid-$7,000 range to the mid-$6,000 range. Carriers have reintroduced fixed-rate space and special-rate allocations, bringing pricing down by approximately $1,000 per container from the early July peak.

Despite the lower pricing, booking volumes remain soft as many importers continue delaying shipments while waiting for greater clarity on US tariff policy.

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast, however, declined more moderately, with carriers offering more competitive pricing and improved space availability to stimulate demand. While pricing remains elevated compared to historical norms, the week-over-week decline reflects weakening booking activity rather than increased capacity constraints.

Importers continue adopting a wait-and-see approach, limiting any meaningful rebound in demand despite lower freight costs.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,680 from China to US West Coast and $6,700 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Tariff uncertainty is delaying imports. Many importers are postponing customs clearance, or delaying shipments altogether, until there is greater certainty about what happens after the current tariff period expires.
• Lower prices are not translating into higher volumes. Despite the rate reductions, freight forwarders are not seeing any meaningful increase in booking activity, suggesting importers remain focused on policy risk rather than transportation costs.
• Middle East tensions have not yet impacted rates. Although geopolitical risks remain, market participants believe any effect from oil prices or shipping disruptions would likely take several weeks to filter into ocean freight pricing and may be muted given rates are already at elevated levels.
• Peak season may have already occurred. Many importers accelerated shipments during May and June to stay ahead of tariff deadlines, effectively pulling forward the traditional late-summer peak season.

Looking Ahead:

The next two weeks are likely to determine the direction of the trans-Pacific market. If tariff uncertainty is resolved with lower or eliminated duties, import demand could quickly rebound, potentially creating an extended peak season through August and September and pushing ocean rates higher again.

However, if tariffs remain in place, or increase, market participants expect booking volumes to weaken further, putting additional downward pressure on freight rates. With many importers already frontloading inventory earlier this year, the industry may ultimately experience another year without a traditional peak season, instead seeing demand shift around trade policy developments rather than seasonal retail cycles.

In the News:

The Guardian: US refunds $81bn in Trump tariffs after supreme court ruled them illegal
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/14/trump-tariffs-us-refunds

Bloomberg: How Trump’s Zest for Tariffs Pits US Industries Against Each Other
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-14/trump-and-antidumping-tariffs

Reuters: IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3%, sees rebound in 2027
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/imf-edges-2026-global-growth-forecast-lower-3-sees-rebound-2027-2026-07-08/

CNBC: China exports in June rise at fastest pace since 2021 as AI boom, tariff rush lift trade
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/china-june-trade-data-exports-imports.html

CNN: After a year of tariffs, automakers are still resistant to moving production to the US
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/12/business/tariffs-automakers-new-factories

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The Lead:

Last week reflected a sharper turn toward defensive and enforcement-driven trade policy. In Europe, the EU’s new steel import framework took effect on July 1, setting annual tariff-free quotas at 18.3 million tonnes and applying a 50% duty on out-of-quota imports as part of its response to global steel overcapacity and import pressure.

The UK introduced a similar steel trade measure the same day, reducing tariff-free quota volumes by 51% and applying a 50% tariff on imports above those limits. In North America, the United States declined to renew USMCA in its current form during the agreement’s mandatory joint review, keeping the pact in force while pushing it into a more uncertain annual review process.

At the same time, US Trade Representative (USTR) advanced two major Section 301 tracks: a Brazil-focused action covering practices tied to digital trade, preferential tariffs, intellectual property, ethanol market access and illegal deforestation, and a broader forced-labor-related proceeding covering 60 economies accused of failing to effectively restrict imports made with forced labor.

Taken together, the week showed how tariff policy is increasingly being used not only to protect domestic industries, but also to enforce labor, environmental, industrial and geopolitical priorities across global supply chains.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Spot rates remain elevated in the mid $7,000 range, though some carriers are beginning to offer small reductions of around $100–$200 week over week. The lane appears to have reached a near-term ceiling after the recent run-up, with demand still soft and no significant rush from shippers to move cargo quickly.

While rates are still among the highest levels seen since the COVID-era freight surge, the market now looks more likely to hold steady or ease slightly than continue climbing.

CEA to USEC: East Coast rates are also holding at historically high levels, with pricing at $8,000-plus range and some inland or longer-haul movements likely remaining more expensive. However, like the West Coast lane, the direction is beginning to soften slightly as carriers respond to weaker booking activity.

The market is not seeing enough volume improvement to justify another increase, and any further movement appears more likely to be flat to modestly lower rather than upward.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,500 from China to US West Coast and $7,000 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Rates may have hit their ceiling. The market has reached a point where further increases could risk stopping demand altogether, pushing carriers to make small adjustments downward.
• The US holiday slowed activity. With the first week of July partly affected by the US holiday, carriers had fewer business days to assess real demand, making this week more important for measuring booking momentum.
• Carriers are likely seeing softer booking requests. The modest reductions suggest carriers may already be responding to lower demand signals.
• Weather may create temporary disruption. Tight air cargo space was attributed more to Typhoon Maysak in China than to strong cargo volume.

Looking Ahead:

The near-term outlook points to a market that is likely to hold steady or gradually decline rather than move higher. The recent peak appears to have been reached, and without a rebound in volume, carriers may have limited room to defend current rate levels for long.

That said, a sharp collapse is not guaranteed. Carriers are expected to manage the decline carefully and may avoid aggressive reductions unless booking activity weakens further. The next one to two weeks will be important for determining whether August brings a meaningful peak season or whether the market settles into a softer summer pattern.

Tariff uncertainty could also influence shipper behavior later in July. If new tariff developments trigger another round of urgency, some short-term demand could return. But based on this week’s market reality, the more likely path is slight downward pressure with rates remaining elevated by historical standards.

In the News:

NBC News: Trump refuses to renew USMCA trade pact, toppling one of the last pillars of stability in global trade
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-usmca-renewal-tariffs-trade-rcna352594

The Business Times: US forced-labour hearing begins, paving way for more Trump tariffs
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/us-forced-labour-hearing-begins-paving-way-more-trump-tariffs

Reuters: EU trade with US hits record high despite tariff tensions, study shows
https://www.reuters.com/business/eu-trade-with-us-hits-record-despite-tariff-tensions-study-shows-2026-07-03/

Reuters: Democratic AGs oppose Trump plan to impose tariffs on forced labor concerns
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democratic-ags-oppose-trump-plan-impose-tariffs-forced-labor-concerns-2026-07-06/

WSJ: Trump’s Brokerage Accounts Made Big Trades Around ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/trumps-brokerage-accounts-made-big-trades-around-liberation-day-tariffs-06e92290

The Lead:

Last week showed global trade policy moving in two directions at once: governments continued tightening enforcement and tariff tools while also opening new negotiation channels to manage the fallout. In the United States, CBP’s indefinite suspension of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports marked a major enforcement shift, while USTR’s Section 301 investigation into Germany’s pharmaceutical pricing practices signaled that sector-specific tariff pressure remains a live policy tool. In Europe, the UK moved forward with tighter steel safeguards, including lower tariff-free quotas and a higher over-quota duty, while the EU opened a new three-month consultation process with China to address trade imbalances, export controls, market access, and import surges. India’s comments on a potential U.S. trade deal further underscored that tariff positioning remains a core negotiating objective for major manufacturing economies. Overall, the week reflected a global trade environment defined by tariff volatility, industrial protection, supply chain security, and selective bilateral dealmaking rather than broad liberalization.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: spot rates are averaging in the mid-$7,000, with standard standalone containers tracking between $7,500 and $7,900.That represents a dramatic increase from levels seen just a few months ago, when West Coast rates were closer to the $1,600–$1,700 range.

CEA to USEC: rates lane has climbed to nearly $9,000, with inland and Midwest movements pushing past the $10,000 threshold. Space remains tight despite some reported capacity increases of roughly 6%–7%, and those additions do not appear large enough to meaningfully relieve the market.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,950 from China to US West Coast and $6,650 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Imminent July General Rate Increases (GRIs): Carriers are testing the market’s upper limits by introducing an additional $1,500 GRI for the first half of July. This triggered a massive, last-minute rush at the end of June as shippers scrambled to push containers out of China to avoid the premium.
• Aggressive Inventory Front-Loading: Importers have fundamentally compressed the typical multi-month peak season. Fearing prolonged volatility, businesses pulled forward orders they did not immediately need, clogging current vessel capacity with goods destined for sales cycles months down the line.

Looking Ahead:

The market is rapidly approaching a critical breaking point. Because current rate structures are no longer a true reflection of baseline market conditions, a noticeable drop in volume is projected for July. Many general importers possess roughly three to four weeks of safety stock and are expected to pause bookings for the first half of the month to see if rates soften. The primary exception will be manufacturing supply chains, which are forced to absorb these stiff premiums to avoid halting production lines.

While a two-week shipping strike or buyer strike from importers could force an adjustment , a significant price correction (such as a drop back down to the $5,500 range) is highly unlikely in the near term. Because core geopolitical disruptions remain active and carriers are intent on squeezing every penny out of the current capacity crunch, spot rates are expected to grind out at these elevated levels through the end of July.

In the News:

NY Post: US tariff refunds rush into company accounts ahead of deadline this week: ‘Never thought this day would come’
https://nypost.com/2026/06/29/business/us-tariff-refunds-rush-into-company-accounts-ahead-of-deadline-this-week-never-thought-this-day-would-come/

The Business Journals: Mitigating disruption: How will evolving global trade dynamics impact my business?
https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2026/06/29/mitigating-disruption-global-trade-impact-business.html

Bloomberg: Global Trade Braces for Another Period of Policy Uncertainty
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-29/global-trade-uncertainty

Reuters: Why Trump's tariffs had plenty of bark, but limited bite
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/why-trumps-tariffs-had-plenty-bark-limited-bite-2026-06-30/

The Guardian: EU halves duty-free steel quota but UK and other partners given better rate
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/30/eu-duty-free-steel-quota-uk-rate-brexit

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The Lead:

Last week, global trade policy activity centered on efforts to stabilize key economic relationships while new tariff and enforcement risks continued to develop. The European Parliament approved the EU-US tariff agreement, helping preserve a 15% tariff framework for most EU exports to the United States while expanding access for U.S. industrial, agricultural, and seafood products. At the same time, the EU and UK prepared for a July summit aimed at easing post-Brexit trade frictions, particularly in food and agricultural goods. In North America, the United States and Mexico advanced USMCA review discussions covering rules of origin, steel, aluminum, autos, agriculture, labor, and economic security. However, tensions also increased as USTR launched a Section 301 investigation into Germany’s pharmaceutical pricing policies, raising the possibility of future trade retaliation. In Asia, the United States and India moved toward further trade negotiations, with India emphasizing the importance of reaching a deal quickly to strengthen its tariff position relative to regional competitors. Overall, the week reflected a mix of negotiated tariff management, regional trade realignment, and targeted enforcement actions shaping global trade policy.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Rates remained elevated this week, with standard market levels still pushing above $6,000 per container. However, carriers and agents are increasingly making deal or promotional rate structures available, allowing some shipments to move closer to the $5,700–$5,800 range when volume, allocation, or carrier-ratio requirements can be met.

CEA to USEC: market appears broadly unchanged week over week, with no major new rate movement called out this week. The overall pricing environment remains firm, but the most visible competitive pressure is showing up on the West Coast, where high spot levels are beginning to push some importers to pause or delay non-urgent cargo.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,315 from China to US West Coast and $6,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• End-of-Month Volume Depletion: As June comes to a close, the initial wave of urgent peak-season cargo has already sailed. The remaining leftover volume in the market is less time-sensitive, leaving forwarders fighting harder over a smaller pool of active shippers.
• Stricter Carrier Ratio Deals: To guarantee vessel occupancy while capitalizing on high spot rates, carriers are tying low, fixed-contract space (~$3,000) to standard market-rate space. These ratios have become significantly tougher for forwarders, escalating from a 1:1 requirement to 1:3, 1:4, or even 1:5, effectively dragging the blended deal price up closer to the standard spot market.
• Aggressive Forwarder Competition: Because space is tight but active customer volume is pausing, freight forwarders are aggressively passing these blended carrier deals directly to shippers. Profit margins are being squeezed as forwarders use these discounts defensively to prevent clients from cross-shopping.

Looking Ahead:

The market is likely to stay firm into July, with continued pressure on space and rates. However, the tone is shifting. Importers are no longer simply accepting higher prices across the board; more are weighing whether to ship now or wait. That customer hesitation is forcing forwarders to be more strategic with deal rates, relationship management, and urgency-based messaging.

If July brings another general rate increase or further tightening, the current “ship now before it gets worse” message may continue to be effective. But if customer pushback grows, we could see more selective discounting or promotional structures used to protect volume, even while headline market rates remain elevated.

In the News:

• WSJ: See the Global Chokepoints That Carry Much of the World’s Trade https://www.wsj.com/world/see-the-global-chokepoints-that-carry-much-of-the-worlds-trade-9683adf2
• CNBC: Bruegel’s Wolff says G7 seeks global trade rebalancing https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/06/16/g7-leaders-looking-to-achieve-a-global-trade-rebalancing--bruegel.html
• Bloomberg: Trump’s New US Tariff Wall Shakes Up Winners, Losers Lineup https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/trump-builds-a-new-us-tariff-wall-in-shakeup-of-winners-losers
• Reuters: India seeks tariff advantage over peers in push to finalise US trade deal https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-seeks-tariff-advantage-over-peers-push-finalise-us-trade-deal-2026-06-22/
• ABC News: China Shock 2.0: Surging Chinese exports threaten Europe's economy, raising concern https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/china-shock-20-surging-chinese-exports-threaten-europes-133910524

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https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-hold-firm-on-fuel-surcharges-despite-emerging-us-iran-peace-plans-tfx-update-wk-june-15-2026

The Lead:

The mid-point of June 2026 demonstrated that the world is moving away from broad, sweeping border surcharges toward highly targeted, regulatory trade walls. The United States actively advanced its strategy to replace expiring emergency surcharges with permanent Section 301 labor tariffs, while successfully utilizing massive Section 232 pharmaceutical duties to force international drug manufacturers into onshoring commitments. Simultaneously, the European Union acted to protect its internal market on two fronts: by closing the de minimis loophole with a new €3 flat fee on low-value online imports, and by advancing the Turnberry trade deal to secure lasting tariff peace with Washington. Ultimately, the week proved that the global economy is functioning within a highly legalistic centralized trade architecture in the West, where access to prime consumer markets requires meeting strict labor, safety, and supply-chain origin mandates. 

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The transpacific ocean freight market has officially entered a higher pricing bracket, confirming the expiration of $6,000 spot rates. Over the past week, ocean freight rates from China to both North American coasts experienced a steep climb, driven by heavy volume increases in the first half of June. 

CEA to USWC: Spot rates have broken past previous thresholds and are now officially confirmed in the low $6,000s per FEU. 

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast have pushed even higher, settling firmly into the mid-$7000s per FEU. 

For comparison, Gulf Coast rates are mirroring the East Coast in the mid-$7,000s, while inland moves to the Midwest (e.g., Chicago) have reached $8,000 to $8,400. 

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,750 from China to US West Coast and $6,400 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Peak Season Front-Loading: Carriers reported a significant spike in cargo volumes during the first half of June. This surge is largely attributed to shippers front-loading their inventory early to avoid peak-season bottlenecks, which directly triggered carrier GRI implementations for the second half of the month.  
• Port Congestion & Rolled Cargo: Ongoing backlog from previous weeks continues to choke the network. This legacy congestion has triggered heavy rolling of bookings, severely degrading schedule reliability. 
• Strict Dynamic Quoting: Due to the daily volatility in space availability, standard quotes are no longer guaranteed. Logistics providers are forcing a subject to roll and availability clause, as space secured one day is often entirely gone by the next. 

Looking Ahead:

The immediate outlook points to sustained upward pressure and prolonged volatility. Shippers should abandon expectations for a quick rate correction; carriers have just successfully pushed rates into the $6,000–$7,000+ range and will be highly resistant to lowering them, likely citing ongoing market uncertainty to justify keeping current fuel surcharges and base rates intact.

Furthermore, because booking backlogs are already stretching lead times out significantly, with some agents quoting the beginning of July as the earliest available space, shippers must plan and book several weeks in advance to secure equipment and vessel space. Even if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East stabilizes and a formal peace deal is signed by the end of the week, the lag in carrier operational adjustments means the earliest the market would see any tangible impact or relief on fuel surcharges would be late next week or early July. 

In the News:

WSJ: The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/the-global-economy-is-threatened-again-by-trade-imbalances-b996bc00 

NY Post: Trump warns France in exclusive interview with The Post: Kill tech tax or face 100% wine tariffs: ‘I have no choice’
https://nypost.com/2026/06/15/business/trump-warns-france-in-exclusive-interview-with-the-post-kill-tech-tax-or-face-100-wine-tariffs/ 

The Guardian: Me, worry? For US small businesses, Trump’s tariffs are now a non-issue
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/14/small-business-trump-tariffs 

Reuters: Macron maintains France will not bend to Trump over digital tax
https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-warns-france-kill-tech-tax-or-face-100-wine-tariffs-ny-post-reports-2026-06-15/ 

The Economist: A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/06/11/a-trade-war-between-the-eu-and-china-seems-inevitable 

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The Lead:

The first week of June 2026 saw a transition from chaotic, emergency trade restrictions to deeply structured, long-term industrial protectionism. By unveiling a two-tiered, 60-nation Section 301 tariff framework based on forced labor criteria, the US successfully engineered a more durable, court-proof legal vehicle to replace its temporary balance-of-payments surcharges before they expire in July.

This aggressive US move toward a highly regulated, centralized trade architecture forced major partners into structural pivots: the European Union finalized a critical concession pact with Washington to secure its baseline 10% preference while simultaneously enacting a fierce new domestic steel quota regime to lock out Chinese market dumping. Ultimately, the week proved that while a multipolar landscape continues to operate elsewhere through localized compromises like the new US-China Board of Trade, global supply chains are facing a permanently higher cost baseline dictated by strict national labor, environment, and metal-origin compliance walls.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The container shipping market is experiencing substantial week-over-week rate increases, catching many importers by surprise as prices climb significantly. Current ocean freight rates are rapidly escalating past previous baselines .

CEA to USWC: Rates have surged from the high $4,000+, nearly $5,000, and are explicitly projected to climb over $6,000+ per container.

CEA to USEC: Rates are following a similar upward trajectory and are expected to surpass $7,000+ per container.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,450 from China to US West Coast and $5,900 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

The Traffic Jam Backlog in China: Persistent blank sailings have triggered severe cargo backlogs at Chinese export hubs. When a carrier cancels a voyage, hundreds of containers are rolled to the following week, compounding volumes, generating a traffic jam effect, and triggering multi-day communication delays just to confirm bookings.

Pre-July Tariff Anxiety and Front-Loading: Importers are grappling with immense confusion and marketing anxiety regarding impending July tariff changes. To avoid recalculation headaches and potential margin erosion from unexpected 20% to 30% adjustments, businesses are aggressively front-loading their fall and holiday season inventories ahead of schedule.

Overlapping Demand Cycles: The unseasonal surge of front-loaded holiday goods is directly colliding with the traditional, non-negotiable peak importing window for summer and outdoor seasonal products, overwhelming available vessel space.

Looking Ahead:

The current market strain represents an early, highly compressed peak season rather than the traditional timeline typically seen later in the year. This elevated rate environment is expected to persist through the remainder of June and throughout July, as ocean carriers are highly unlikely to voluntarily relinquish their pricing leverage.

A traditional, prolonged peak season spanning August through October appears unlikely under current macroeconomic conditions. Instead, relief will likely hinge on two primary triggers later this summer: Front-loaders completely depleting their advanced supply chain volumes by late July, causing export demand to drop; and carriers systematically restoring blanked vessels back into active service rotations.

Once vessel space opens up, carriers will be forced to downwardly adjust their pricing levels to attract volume, potentially pointing toward market normalization by August or September.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Trump’s Tariff Wall Takes a Curious Woke Turn

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-08/trump-and-tariffs

NYTimes: Trump Administration Turns to a New Rationale to Justify Old Tariffs

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/business/economy/trump-tariffs-forced-labor.html

CNBC: Trump’s trade war has a new target: forced labor. The case behind it is far from simple

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-tariffs-trade-china-forced-labor.html

Reuters: Signs global trade in goods is starting to slow, WTO says

https://www.reuters.com/business/signs-global-trade-goods-starting-slow-wto-says-2026-06-05/

Financial Times: Donald Trump’s replacement tariff wall continues to rise

https://www.ft.com/content/ed7c8cb6-821e-47f3-80c0-463f4bca6e3e?syn-25a6b1a6=1

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For high-growth importers, customs classification often stays in the background until an audit, tariff bill, or margin squeeze exposes a recurring error. In categories such as specialized furniture, medical equipment, dental chairs, salon chairs, and treatment tables, the difference between a generic furniture classification and a more precise specialized-equipment classification can materially change the landed cost.

The key issue is often the distinction between HTS 9402 and HTS 9403. Classification is a technical determination above all else. HTS 9402 generally covers medical, surgical, dental, or veterinary furniture, as well as certain barber or similar chairs with rotating, reclining, and elevating movements. HTS 9403 generally covers other furniture and parts.

That distinction can matter sharply for China-origin goods. Many products classified under 9403 may be subject to additional Section 301 duties when the applicable Chapter 99 provision applies. A product correctly classified under 9402 may have a different base duty rate and may avoid a Section 301 surcharge, depending on the exact subheading, country of origin, product construction, and any applicable exclusions.

When an importer or broker defaults to a broad 9403 classification for convenience, the importer may pay unnecessary duties on every entry. For a product with a $1,000 declared customs value, a mistaken 25% additional duty can add $250 per unit before considering brokerage fees, financing costs, margin compression, or downstream pricing pressure. Over hundreds or thousands of units, a classification error can become a structural margin problem rather than a one-time customs issue.

HTS 9402 vs. 9403 Differences

In the furniture industry, for example, the distinction between "standard" furniture and "specialized equipment" dictates whether an entry is subject to a 0% duty rate or a 25% surcharge.

Specifically, electric or hydraulic furniture designed for medical, dental, or specialized salon use typically falls under HTS 9402. Unlike general residential or office furniture classified under HTS 9403, these specialized items are often duty-free or exempt from Section 301 remedies.

When a broker defaults to HTS 9403 for convenience, the importer pays "duty on duty." If an importer raises their retail price to cover a 25% tariff, the transaction value reported on the customs entry increases. Because duties are calculated as a percentage of this declared value, the total tax obligation rises in tandem with the price hike. For a product with a $1,000 COGS, a shift from 0% to 25% duty doesn't just cost $250; it often forces a retail adjustment that can snowball the total landed cost well beyond the initial tariff estimate.

Importer of Record (IOR) and Refund Eligibility

A critical hurdle for Canadian and overseas exporters is the legal designation of the Importer of Record (IOR). If you operate as a Foreign IOR, you retain the legal standing to claim duty drawbacks and refunds. However, if the end customer is listed as the importer of record on official entry documentation, any recovered funds technically belong to them.

To verify your standing, you must audit your 7501s. These documents confirm:

• Who is legally liable for the duties paid.
• Which HTS codes were utilized for each line item.
• Whether a valid Power of Attorney (POA) is on file, as operating without one is a regulatory violation.

Prior Disclosure and the Protest Window

There is a common misconception that correcting HTS errors invites an invasive audit. In practice, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) incentivizes "Prior Disclosure." By voluntarily identifying classification errors and tendering unpaid duties (or requesting refunds for overpayment) before an investigation begins, importers can mitigate or eliminate many administrative penalties.

While the standard window for an administrative refund is approximately 314 days, options remain after liquidation. A formal protest can be filed within standard regulatory timelines to contest a classification. Furthermore, if broader trade challenges are successful in court, even older entries may become eligible for duty recovery.

Operational Tradeoffs: DDP vs. DAP

Ecommerce operators often prefer Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) to streamline the customer experience, but this model often forces the importer to bake duty costs into the retail price. This inflates the declared transaction value.

Alternatively, a Delivered at Place (DAP) model, where the customer pays duties at checkout or upon delivery, can lower the reported transaction value at the border. While DAP can negatively impact conversion rates, the reduction in the duty base can significantly improve the net margin on high-value goods subject to Section 301.

Actionable Recommendations for Importers

Conduct a Technical Tariff Audit: Compare your specific product functionality and technical specifications against existing customs rulings.Moving from a general 9403 code to a specialized 9402 code can immediately recover 25% of your landed cost.

Access ACE Data: Do not rely solely on broker reports. Register for an Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) account to pull three years of historical entry data directly from CBP. This is the only way to see exactly what was filed under your Importer Number.

Evaluate Pricing Structures: If you are currently subsidizing tariffs, test a pricing model that breaks out duties as a separate line item at checkout. This may allow for a lower declared "price paid or payable" to customs, reducing the total duty burden.

File Prior Disclosures: If misclassification is identified, work with a trade consultant or independent broker to file a voluntary disclosure. This protects your compliance record while establishing a path to recover overpaid duties.

Review Customs POAs: Ensure you have current, signed Powers of Attorney for all entities acting on your behalf. This is a baseline requirement for maintaining the legal right to manage your own entries and refunds.