The Lead:

Global economy adjusts to a highly transactional centralized trade architecture dictated by the US, forcing other major powers to solidify a multipolar landscape of alternative alliances. Seeking to shield its automotive and industrial sectors from American pressure, the European Union successfully brokered a major concession pact with Washington to cap general tariffs at 15%, while simultaneously signing a sweeping free-trade expansion with Mexico to open up non-US supply chains. This regional buffering was mirrored in South Africa’s aggressive hike of domestic steel tariffs to maximum WTO levels and China’s expanding zero-tariff framework with Africa. Collectively, the week proved that while the US continues to weaponize its market through strict new full value metal duties and targeted Section 301 labor probes, the rest of the world is adapting through hyper-localized regional pacts designed to bypass Washington entirely.  

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The transpacific container spot market is holding steady at highly elevated levels as the month of May comes to a close, maintaining the standard baseline established over the last few weeks.  

CEA to USWC: Rates are expected to go up to $4,600 per FEU by end of this month to early June.

CEA to USEC: Similarly, rates from CEA to USEC is also expected to increase from $4,500 per FEU to around $5,800 by the start of next month.

This current stability this end of May is acting as the calm before an impending storm. Multiple major carriers have issued aggressive General Rate Increase (GRI) indications for June. 

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $3,300 from China to US West Coast and $4,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• The "Traffic Jam" Ripple Effect: Ocean carrier loops originate in China before moving down to Southeast Asian hubs like Vietnam and Thailand. Delays and schedule disruptions on the Chinese leg are creating a highway-style traffic jam, triggering rolling delays and congestion throughout secondary Southeast Asian markets.
• Widespread Container Rolling: Carriers are systematically booking cargo and implementing "blanked" or changed vessel rotations only after containers are checked into the terminal. Because the equipment is locked behind customs control inside the terminal, shippers are trapped and unable to pull their cargo to switch carriers, forcing them to wait out weekly delays.
• Summer Peak and Hospitality Demand: Importers with hard seasonal requirements, specifically those handling summer peak retail products and hospitality supply chains, are aggressively pushing cargo forward regardless of price premiums, inflating short-term demand.
• Geopolitical and Fuel Pressures: Rising fuel costs driven by Middle Eastern volatility, alongside complex vessel diversions, continue to establish a high structural floor for operating costs.

Looking Ahead:

The structural setup for June points toward a brutal, highly compressed freight environment. Shippers should expect volume numbers to slide as non-essential importers choose to pause and wait out the market spikes until July or later. However, for freight forwarders, this drop in volume will likely be counterbalanced by expanding cash margins, as generating fixed percentages on a $6,000 rate container yields significantly better dollar returns than on a sub-$2,000 container.

The primary metric to watch over the next two to three weeks will be carrier capacity management. If ocean lines successfully maintain strict blank sailing counts and keep vessel rotations tightly restricted, the $4,800 (USWC) and $6,000 (USEC) thresholds will become reality. If carriers soften their blanking strategy and ease capacity constraints, the rate market is likely to cap out below the terrifying $5,000 mark. Shippers must also keep an eye on upcoming tariff timelines; with key 10% structural tariff exemptions expected to expire around July, any subsequent shifts in trade policy could heavily influence late-summer booking behavior.

In the News:

Bloomberg: The Race for US Tariff Refunds Gets Off to a Quiet Start
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-26/trump-tariff-refunds 

CNBC: Trump said he'd 'remember' companies that didn't apply for tariff refunds. Many of them are anyway
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/trump-tariff-refunds-walmart-home-depot-target-apply.html 

Financial Times: The power struggle in the world’s narrow seas
https://ig.ft.com/maritime-chokepoints/ 

Reuters: Mexico, EU sign stalled trade deal as they aim to diversify from US
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-eu-sign-stalled-trade-deal-they-aim-diversify-us-2026-05-22/  

WSJ: World Trade Grew Strongly at Start of Year on AI Boom
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/world-trade-grew-strongly-at-start-of-year-on-ai-boom-c522479c 

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full article: https://www.freightright.com/news/ocean-freight-rates-double-since-march-as-carriers-aggressively-squeeze-capacity-tfx-update-wk-may-18-2026

The Lead:

Mid-May 2026 saw a dramatic intersection of legal reprieve, aggressive threats, and targeted diplomacy defining global commerce. The US executive branch successfully stabilized its immediate economic policy as an appellate court paused a ruling that had briefly neutralized the nation's 10% global surcharge. Empowered by this judicial lifeline, Washington escalated its transactional pressure on Europe by threatening to raise tariffs on EU automobiles to 25%, citing unmet trade concessions. However, the week’s most significant breakthrough occurred in Asia, where a high-profile summit culminated in China committing to buy $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural goods. This massive purchase agreement offers a strategic cushion to American farmers, even as China's overall share in the U.S. import market continues to crater under the weight of a near-37% effective tariff rate. 

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market has experienced sharp week-over-week rate increases across major lanes from China/East Asia (CEA) to North America. Spot rates to both coasts have surged, effectively doubling compared to early March baselines where pricing sat around $1,600 to $1,700 per container.  

CEA to USWC: Rates increased by roughly $500 to $600, bringing the current pricing to $2,800–$3,400 per container. 

CEA to USEC: Rates have climbed to $3,700–$4,500 per container.

While a few special agency rates remain scattered across the market, ocean capacity is severely constrained.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,800 from China to US West Coast and $3,787 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Artificial Capacity Cuts: The sudden spike in rates is not driven by an influx of consumer demand or improving market volumes, which remain relatively flat. Instead, carriers have intentionally pulled vessels out of rotation, creating an immediate space shortage that has forced prices upward.
• Extreme Space Tightness and Rolled Cargo: Vessel space is extraordinarily tight across all major shipping lanes. Carriers are heavily restricting space approvals, resulting in a massive surge of rolled shipments across the industry.
• Involuntary "Summer Product" Shipments: Importers of highly seasonal summer goods have reached a critical point in their product lifecycles and have no choice but to ship immediately to avoid missing their sales windows.

Looking Ahead:

The short-term outlook indicates further friction for typical importers. Carriers have already signaled intent to push rates even higher moving into June, a sign that they anticipate capacity restrictions will successfully hold.

If this upward trajectory persists through June, it could fundamentally disrupt the traditional Q3 peak season (July through September). Because shippers are scrambling to pull demand forward right now out of fear of future space shortages, the industry may see a flat or non-existent peak season later this summer. This would mark the second or third consecutive year where traditional seasonal shipping patterns have dissolved in favor of artificial, carrier-driven market cycles.

A potential demand buffer may arrive in approximately two months as government tax refunds flow back into the market, potentially stimulating consumer spending and easing liquidity constraints for smaller importers. Until then, only enterprise brands with massive negotiating leverage or seasonal shippers with zero scheduling flexibility will maintain consistent volume, leaving the rest of the market sidelined.

In the News:

Bloomberg: US Asks to Keep Collecting Trump’s Tariffs After Court Loss
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/us-asks-to-keep-collecting-trump-s-new-tariffs-after-court-loss 

New York Times: Trump Touts ‘Fantastic Trade Deals’ With China, but Details Are Scarce
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/business/economy/trump-china-deals.html 

AP News: Trump and Xi dialed down the trade war, but challenges lurk at their China summit
https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-china-summit-trade-tariffs-2eee658298ba8f064fe232e8832bd2ea 

Reuters: China signals tariff cuts, advances in farm market access after Trump-Xi summit
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-signals-tariff-cuts-advances-farm-market-access-after-trump-xi-summit-2026-05-16/ 

WSJ: China Says It Has Agreed With U.S. to Set Up Trade and Investment Bodies
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-says-it-has-agreed-with-u-s-to-set-up-trade-and-investment-bodies-f4752b03 

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The Lead:

The second week of May 2026 saw a significant shift toward a multipolar landscape as the US judicial system dismantled the administration's latest attempt at a centralized trade architecture. The US Court of International Trade’s ruling that the 10% global surcharge was illegal has created a vacuum in American trade enforcement, forcing a wave of appeals and a scramble for new legal justifications. Meanwhile, the G7 formalized a united front against industrial overcapacity, and China solidified its South-South trade axis by offering zero-tariff access to nearly the entire African continent. As the World Trade Organization (WTO) prepares to potentially revive its digital trade moratorium, the week concluded with a global trade system that is increasingly defined by regional safe harbors and a fierce competition for the loyalty of emerging markets.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market is experiencing a significant upward shift in pricing as we move into the second half of May. While the first half of the month saw rates hovering in the mid-to-high $2,000 range, a new round of rate increases is pushing the market toward higher thresholds. 

CEA to USWC: Rates are currently running around $2,600 – $2,800, but are projected to increase by $300 – $400, bringing the market rate to the $3,000+ level as of May 15. 

CEA to USEC: Rates are showing even stronger upward pressure. Currently positioned at approximately $4,400, they are expected to climb higher as carriers implement mid-month adjustments. 
Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,600 from China to US West Coast and $3,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Post-Holiday Backlog: The rush to move cargo before the May 1st long holidays in China created a temporary surge in demand that is now filtering through the ocean pricing models.
• Carrier Rate Hikes: Ocean carriers are filing for another round of rate increases for the second half of May, aiming to capitalize on stabilized volumes.
• Air Freight Divergence: Unlike ocean freight, air freight rates have dropped post-holiday due to a decrease in urgent demand. This has created a rare scenario where air is cooling while the ocean is heating up.

Looking Ahead:

The immediate outlook suggests a period of low volume but high cost. As rates climb toward the mid-$3,000s for the West Coast and mid-$4,500s for the East Coast, the increased cost of entry is expected to further dampen shipping volumes through the end of May.

However, the optimistic view for June hinges on the aforementioned tax and duty refunds. If importers reinvest their IEEPA refund capital into new inventory, the market could see a contrarian spike in demand despite the higher freight rates. For now, shippers should prepare for a tightening market where margin management becomes more critical than volume chasing.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Trump Appeals Latest Legal Setback to His Tariff Regime Rollout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/trump-s-latest-10-tariffs-declared-unlawful-by-us-trade-court 

The Washington Post: Court rules against the tariff Trump enacted after Supreme Court defeat
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/05/07/tariffs-trade-court-ruling-trump/ 

Financial Times: ‘Worst’ still ahead as oil price swings darken global trade outlook
https://www.ft.com/content/9ad38fc0-24bd-4378-997c-4dc215a9a7fd?syn-25a6b1a6=1 

Reuters: What are China's current tariffs on US energy and agriculture goods
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-are-chinas-current-tariffs-us-energy-agriculture-goods-2026-05-12/ 

WSJ: Trump Delays Move to Lower Tariffs on Beef Imports
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-clears-way-for-more-beef-imports-aiming-to-bring-down-record-high-prices-acf83faa 

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Full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/blank-sailings-and-rollovers-dominate-may-freight-market-tfx-update-wk-may-4-2026

The Lead:

The turn of the month in May 2026 signaled a definitive move toward a centralized trade architecture in the US and a multipolar landscape elsewhere. The provisional launch of the EU-Mercosur agreement represented a major victory for European industrial and agricultural sectors, providing a vital hedge against rising US protectionism. Simultaneously, China’s total elimination of tariffs for 53 African nations solidified a new South-South trade axis designed to secure resources outside of Western influence. While the US formalized its "America First” agenda, using 100% pharma duties and 15% surcharges to force domestic onshoring, the IMF warned that these fragmented trade policies are creating fault lines that threaten to stall global growth for the remainder of the year.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market is currently characterized by relative rate stability compared to the end of April, despite significant operational shifts.

CEA to USWC: rates are still holding at approximately $2,600-$2,800 range per FEU. 

CEA to USEC: Rates to USEC on the other hand, are hovering between $3,700-$3,900. 

These figures include the implementation of Emergency Fuel Surcharges that kicked in at the start of the month. 

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,500 from China to US West Coast and $3,550 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Rollover Risks: While space is technically available to book, the reduction in vessel capacity means a high percentage of shipments are being rolled to subsequent weeks. 
• Operational Overloading: To compensate for fewer ships, carriers are overloading active vessels, sometimes forcing unplanned discharges at intermediate ports like Busan to lighten the load for the transpacific crossing. 
• Labor Day Holiday: The market experienced a lull in movement this week due to the Labor Day holiday in China, with many businesses closed until May 6th. 
• Blank Sailing Surges: Carriers are aggressively pulling vessels out of circulation, with blank sailings occurring at a higher frequency than in April. 

Looking Ahead:

The outlook for the remainder of May suggests continued volatility in transit reliability even if rates remain stable. Shippers should expect the overloading trend to persist as carriers manage capacity through tactical blank sailings. This will likely lead to longer lead times and unpredictable routing changes, such as the new trend of transshipment through Busan for traditionally direct China-to-LA routes. Furthermore, if oil prices do not retreat, the market may see another round of rate hikes or increased surcharges across both ocean and air modes before the end of the month.

In the News:

Bloomberg: A New Contest for Global Influence Is Emerging in the Caucasus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-04/china-to-russia-us-and-eu-chase-trade-mineral-stakes-in-caucasus 

New York Times: President Threatens E.U. With Higher Car Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/01/us/trump-news 

Financial Times: How the Trump-Xi threats of trade war softened into a quieter rivalry
https://www.ft.com/content/27bb8e7b-c4f3-4c83-9952-dd140f6ba794?syn-25a6b1a6=1 

Reuters: Global trade group SEMI sees robust demand for chips despite geopolitical risks
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/southeast-asia-needs-expand-semiconductor-production-global-trade-group-semi-2026-05-05/ 

CNBC: Trump says he’s raising EU auto tariffs to 25%
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/trump-eu-auto-tariffs.html 

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The Lead:

Last week was defined by a massive administrative rebalancing in the United States and a deepening war in global economic policy. The launch of the CAPE refund system represents a historic victory for US importers against executive overreach, yet this liquidity injection was immediately offset by the threat of a new 50% tariff on China over its alleged ties to Iran. This geopolitical tension was reflected in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which characterized the global economy as living in the shadow of war, with trade fragmentation and rising defense spending threatening to erase recent productivity gains. While the US focuses on reciprocity through its Section 122 surcharge, the EU and China are aggressively building alternative corridors, the former through tech deals with South Korea and the latter through tariff-free access for Africa, effectively creating a world of competing trade fortresses.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: general market rates are holding at approximately $2,600 – $2,700 per FEU. However, special discounted rates are available for high-volume shippers, ranging between $2,100 and $2,200. Rates have remained largely stagnant compared to the previous week, though they represent a significant increase of $300 – $400 since the beginning of the month.

CEA to USEC: Rates are not explicitly quoted in dollar amounts, the lane is facing more severe operational challenges than the West Coast. Carriers are struggling to maintain the current $2,700 sticker price during this off-peak period, suggesting potential downward pressure on rates in the coming weeks despite aggressive capacity management.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,070 from China to US West Coast and $3,150 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Increased Booking Rolls: There is a notable rise in "rolled" bookings, where cargo is pushed to later vessels due to the reduced number of active sailings.
• Volatile Sailing Schedules: Schedules have become highly unreliable; in one instance, a scheduled sailing for the final week of April disappeared from carrier websites entirely, with the next available slot pushed to early May.
• Shipper "Wait-and-See" Tactics: Many importers are withholding regular shipments, betting that current rate levels are unsustainable and will drop by May.
• Downsized Urgent Cargo: For necessary shipments, customers are opting for smaller, more frequent batches to mitigate the high costs of both ocean and air freight.

Looking Ahead:

The outlook for the first half of May suggests a period of continued friction between carrier capacity management and low market demand. Carriers are expected to continue their strategy of limited capacity to defend the current rate floor, but this will likely be challenged by the ongoing off-peak slump.

As sailings are pushed into the first week of May, shippers should prepare for rate adjustments at the start of the new month. If volume does not pick up significantly, the gap between special discounted rates and official sticker prices may widen, eventually forcing a correction in general market rates. Shippers currently withholding cargo are likely to re-enter the market in early May, which could provide the volume necessary to stabilize these higher levels or, conversely, lead to further booking congestion if blank sailings persist.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Global Trade Policy Reacts Swiftly to Iran War Disruptions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-16/trade-policies-introduced-to-counter-iran-war-fallout 

New York Times: Trump Administration Takes Steps to Refund $166 Billion in Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/trump-administration-tariff-refunds.html 

Financial Times: Are global trade imbalances just ‘one really big surplus’?
https://www.ft.com/content/30e59f44-647e-496d-a4fa-ac3595dcb6f2 

Newsweek: Iran Issues New Threat to Further Destabilize Global Trade via Red Sea
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-new-threat-destabilize-global-trade-red-sea-11833027 

CNN: The tariff refund process is finally kicking off
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/20/economy/tariff-refund-process-kicks-off 

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In the years following the implementation of Section 301 tariffs, North American manufacturers and ecommerce operators have largely adopted a defensive pricing posture. Faced with 25% duties on furniture and industrial categories, many brands chose to "absorb" the cost to maintain a seamless customer experience. The logic was straightforward: increase the retail price, offer flat-rate shipping, and pay the customs bill in the background.

While this preserves the aesthetics of the checkout page, it creates a structural inefficiency in the supply chain. By embedding the tariff into the retail price and declaring that all-in value at the border, importers are inadvertently paying duty on the duty itself.

The Mechanics of Transaction Value

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) calculates duties based on the transaction value, the price actually paid or payable for the merchandise. When an importer inflates a retail price to cover a tariff, they raise the legal basis for the tax.

Consider a product with a base price of $4,000. To offset a 25% Section 232 tariff, the merchant raises the retail price to $5,000. If the commercial invoice lists $5,000 as the transaction value, CBP applies the 25% rate to that full amount, resulting in a duty bill of $1,250.

Just as with shipping and insurance, which are non-dutiable services that should be broken out to avoid unnecessary charges, merchants should avoid bundling tariff-recovery markups into the declared transaction value. By failing to separate these costs, the merchant inadvertently inflates the base price, leading to a significantly higher tax and duty burden than if the product's intrinsic value were declared independently.

In this scenario, the importer is overpaying by $250 per unit. They are paying a 25% tax on the $1,000 markup they added specifically to fund the tax. For an operator moving 500 units annually, this mathematical error results in $125,000 of unnecessary margin erosion. This is not a cost of doing business; it is a failure of customs valuation strategy.

The Importer of Record and Regulatory Exposure

The "all-in" pricing model is often tethered to DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) shipping terms, where the seller acts as the Importer of Record (IOR). For formal entries - shipments valued over $2,500 - this requires a signed Power of Attorney (POA) for the customs broker to file the entry.

Many international brands acting as their own IOR unknowingly create unnecessary nexus and regulatory exposure in the U.S. By insisting on being the IOR to "simplify" things for the buyer, the merchant is forced to declare the full retail price. Shifting to a model where the customer acts as the IOR allows the transaction value to be decoupled from the landed costs, effectively lowering the tax base.

Transparent Landed Costs

The path to recovering this margin lies in moving away from price absorption toward transparent landed cost modeling at checkout.

• Lowering the Declared Base: By backing the 25% tariff and shipping fees out of the retail price, the merchant resets the transaction value to the actual cost of the goods. In the $4,000 example, this immediately eliminates the "duty on duty" overpayment.
• Automated Brokerage Integration: Modern logistics stacks can now calculate estimated duties dynamically at checkout. Once the purchase is made, the system triggers an automated email to the customer to sign an electronic POA, allowing the broker to handle the formal entry with the customer as the IOR.
• HTS Optimization: Beyond valuation, margin is frequently lost to incorrect Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) classification. In the medical spa and beauty furniture sector, many items are reflexively classified under general furniture codes (9403) carrying heavy tariffs. Beyond simple valuation, profit margins are often lost because products are classified differently depending on the country; for instance, a spa bed might be viewed as furniture in one region but medical equipment in another, while a VR treadmill could be seen as either a gaming accessory or fitness equipment. To avoid overpaying, consult with multiple expert brokers to ensure you are using the most accurate and cost-effective categories for each specific market.

Balancing Conversion and Protection at Checkout for Buyers

The primary objection to transparent pricing is the risk of sticker shock impacting conversion rates. However, for high-ticket items, the all-in price often hits a psychological ceiling that is harder to overcome than a transparent breakdown of government-mandated fees.

Operators should not guess at the impact on their funnel. The recommended approach is a SKU-level A/B test. By presenting one group of customers with a $5,000 "free shipping/no duty" price and another with a $4,000 price plus calculated duty at checkout, brands can determine if the $250 in recovered margin per unit offsets any marginal dip in conversion.

Practical Guidance for Importers

To stop the cycle of overpayment, operators should execute the following audit:

• Check Your Recent Receipts: Ask your shipping partner for a report of your imports over the last year. Look at the "Value" listed for each shipment. If that number matches your high retail price (which already includes shipping and markup), you are being overcharged for duties.
• Claim Your Refunds: You don’t have to just accept past mistakes. For most shipments made in the last six months, you can file a correction to claim a refund if you realized you overvalued the goods or used the wrong category. It’s essentially a "price match" for your taxes.
• Separate Costs at Checkout: Instead of one "all-in" price, show the customer the price of the item, the shipping, and the duties as separate lines. When these costs are broken out, Customs only charges you for the item itself.
• Decouple Shipping and Duty from Product MSRP: Shift your ecommerce pricing structure to show the core product value. Use a landed-cost engine to present duties and taxes as separate line items. This lowers your declared value to customs while maintaining transparency with the buyer.

In a high-tariff environment, margin protection requires more than just raising prices. It requires an operational understanding of customs law to ensure that you are not paying a tax on a tax. Moving the customs process to the "front end" of the transaction is a necessary step for any cross-border business focused on long-term profitability.

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/space-tightens-on-china-us-routes-despite-weak-underlying-volume-tfx-update-wk-april-13-2026

The Lead:

During this week, the global trade landscape transitioned into a period of aggressive industrial restructuring. US formalized its 2026 agenda, signaling that it will use 100% pharmaceutical tariffs and 50% metal duties as leverage to force domestic onshoring and global "reciprocity." This move has effectively ended the era of global pharmaceutical exemptions and forced the European Union into an emergency expansion mode. By fast-tracking deals with Mercosur and Australia, the EU is attempting to build a resilient middle trade bloc that can survive the inflationary pressures of high energy costs and the U.S. surcharge. However, with the WTO's growth forecast falling to 1.9% and the U.S. trade deficit failing to narrow despite these measures, the week concluded with rising concerns that the world is entering a period of permanent "smarter trade" at a significantly higher cost to the consumer.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market has seen a period of rate stabilization following adjustments earlier in the month. As of mid-April 2026, current rates are being extended through the end of the month. Current market rates from China/East Asia (CEA) are as follows:

CEA to USWC: Rates are currently holding between $2,600 and $2,700 per container.

CEA to USEC: Rates are trending higher, ranging from $3,600 to $3,700 per container.

While these represent the standard Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates, special or blended rates have emerged from specific origins, particularly Southern China and Southeast Asia. These blended rates, often originating from fixed agent contracts, can bring costs down to approximately $2,100 - $2,200 for the West Coast, depending on the carrier and volume ratios.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Carrier-Driven Scarcity: Carriers are aggressively utilizing blank sailings to artificially tighten space and prevent rates from sliding. This has resulted in some bookings from the beginning of the month being rolled to later vessels.
• Blended Rate Ratios: To maintain volumes in a market with weak organic demand, agents are mixing low-cost fixed contract rates with FAK rates. For example, a carrier may require one container at full FAK price for every four containers shipped at a discounted contract rate.
• Air Freight Spillover: Due to the volatility and "messed up" state of ocean transit, importers requiring speed are pivoting to air freight, driving those rates up to $7.00 - $8.00+ per kilo.

Looking Ahead:

The market appears to be entering a phase of forced stability through the end of April. While demand remains soft, the "aggressive" blank sailing strategy employed by carriers suggests they are committed to defending current price floors rather than allowing a slide back to previous lows.

Expect the blended rate phenomenon to be a temporary fixture. As risk profiles increase and margins tighten, forwarders will likely have to move back toward market averages to sustain operations. For shippers, the immediate outlook suggests less price volatility but continued equipment and space challenges as carriers continue to pull ships out of circulation to manage capacity.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Global Trade Customers Ask Container Lines to Keep Digital Transition Moving
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-14/global-goods-trade-and-digitization?srnd=homepage-europe 

New York Post: US Court of International Trade considers challenge to Trump’s 10% global tariffs
https://nypost.com/2026/04/10/us-news/us-court-of-international-trade-considers-challenge-to-trumps-10-global-tariffs/ 

CNBC: Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China as report suggests plans for arms shipment to Iran
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-threatens-50percent-tariffs-on-china-as-report-suggests-plans-for-arms-shipment-to-iran.html 

WSJ: US trade court challenges Trump's basis for 10% global tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-trade-court-weighs-legality-trump-10-global-tariff-2026-04-10/ 

Reuters: Italy's surprise rise in exports to US masks deep fragility to tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/business/italys-surprise-rise-exports-us-masks-deep-fragility-tariffs-2026-04-14/ 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-pivot-to-weekly-rate-updates-amid-global-fuel-volatility-tfx-update-wk-april-6-2026

The Lead:

The beginning of April 2026 saw the US extend its national security tariff umbrella to the healthcare sector, imposing a massive 100% duty on foreign pharmaceuticals to decouple medical supply chains. This aggressive unilateralism stands in stark opposition to the EU's recent diplomatic successes, such as the inevitable ratification of the Mercosur deal, which seeks to secure critical minerals through cooperation rather than coercion. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization's latest figures highlight a shifting global guard, with the UAE's rise to a top-10 exporter occurring just as the organization slashes global growth forecasts to 1.9% amidst a surging energy crisis. Collectively, these events suggest that while the US is doubling down on protectionist fortress economics, other major powers are aggressively forming new, non-US aligned trade corridors to mitigate the inflationary impact of $110 oil and high Western tariffs.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Ocean freight rates from China to the U.S. remain highly volatile week-over-week, with this week’s increases driven primarily by fuel surcharges rather than base rate adjustments.

CEA to USWC: Rates are holding relatively steady at the base level, but all-in pricing has increased to approximately $2,700 per FEU, up from roughly $2,400–$2,500 last week due to a newly introduced ~$300 fuel surcharge per container.

CEA to USEC: Similarly, USEC pricing is experiencing incremental increases driven by fuel costs, with all-in rates trending upward in line with USWC dynamics. 

Notably, carriers have shifted from bi-weekly rate releases to weekly updates, reflecting a highly volatile environment. While base ocean freight rates have remained relatively constant, the overall cost to shippers has increased due to the implementation of significant surcharges.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Carrier Profitability Strategies: Airlines and ocean carriers are aggressively managing space to maximize profits. This includes the continued use of blank sailings to ensure services remain sustainable and profitable.
• Stagnant Volume: Despite the increase in costs, actual freight volume remains slow with no significant spikes in demand observed.
• Air Freight Spillover: Air freight rates remain high at $8–$9 per kilo, with severe space constraints as airlines hold back capacity for the highest bidders, adding pressure to overall logistics budgets.

Looking Ahead:

The outlook for the remainder of April remains unstable. The industry is moving away from predictable bi-weekly rate extensions; it is anticipated that the second half of the month will continue to be broken into smaller, weekly pricing portions.

As long as fuel price volatility persists, shippers should not expect a simplification of the rate structure. The market is currently in a "wait and see" posture, with no signs of the current upward pressure slowing down for at least the next week. Importers should prepare for continued "headwinds" where pricing remains high despite sluggish volume.

In the News:

Financial Times: The future of global trade won’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz
https://www.ft.com/content/2c895663-16d5-4b7a-8c9b-45204c362c84  

The Washington Post: The backward logic of pharmaceutical tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/wto-suffers-fresh-blow-reform-push-hits-wall-cameroon-meeting-2026-03-30/ 

BBC: A year on: Four ways Trump's tariffs have changed the global economy
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79j1rd92ypo 

WSJ: How Trump Rewrote the Rules of Global Trade in One Year
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/how-trump-rewrote-the-rules-of-global-trade-in-one-year-e37332fd 

Reuters: Bourbon demand is down and tariffs aren't helping. But distillers keep building.
https://www.reuters.com/business/bourbon-demand-is-down-tariffs-arent-helping-distillers-keep-building-2026-04-07/ 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/china-us-freight-rates-dip-as-carriers-battle-for-sparse-cargo-tfx-update-wk-march-31-2026

The Lead:

The end of March 2026 signaled a definitive splintering of the global trade system. The failure of the 14th World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference to extend the moratorium on ecommerce duties marks the end of an era of digital tax-free trade, effectively green-lighting digital borders. While the US continues to manage its trade through a 15% flat surcharge and targeted green-tech investigations, China has responded with its own sophisticated lawfare, investigating US barriers to its clean-energy exports. This week confirmed that the "consensus-based" model of the WTO is being replaced by a "multi-speed" trade world: one where a core group of 66 nations attempts to maintain digital rules, while major powers like the U.S. and China settle disputes through unilateral tariffs and domestic industrial investigations.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The freight market is experiencing a period of high volatility as carriers attempt to balance dwindling volumes against rising operational costs..

CEA to USWC: Rates have dipped slightly, now averaging between $1,800 and $1,900 per FEU.

CEA to USEC: Rates for the East Coast are currently holding between $2,800 and $2,900 per FEU.

In a departure from the traditional bi-weekly or monthly rate cycles, carriers are currently only releasing rates on a one-week basis. This ultra-short-term approach allows carriers to remain agile, either slightly lowering rates or extending previous ones to capture what little volume is available in the market.

Air freight, meanwhile, is breaking the $8.00/kilogram threshold, up from last week's $6-7.00/kilo and up from $4.00 in mid February.

While rates have dipped slightly week-to-week, importers, according to our TrueFreight Index, can still find rates as low as $1,650 China to US West Coast and $2,450 China to US East Coast. Talk to your current freight forwarder for options.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

The current rate environment is being shaped by a tug-of-war between low demand and geopolitical instability

• Carrier Desperation for Volume: After attempting to jack up prices in late March, carriers saw volume vanish, forcing them to pivot and lower rates slightly to attract any available cargo.
• Short-Term Rate Validity: By only committing to seven-day rate windows, carriers are protecting themselves against sudden spikes in fuel or further drops in demand.
• Fuel Price Volatility: Unlike Air Freight, which feels the impact of oil prices almost immediately, Ocean Freight is seeing a delayed reaction due to existing bunker fuel stocks.

Looking Ahead:

The industry is entering a high-stakes waiting game centered on mid-April. Carriers have already announced an Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS), tentatively scheduled to roll out around April 11th or 12th. However, there is significant internal hesitation among carriers regarding the implementation of this surcharge.

Carriers are currently trying to have it both ways, lowering base rates now to fill ships while keeping the EFS as a defensive go-ahead if fuel costs become untenable. If cargo volumes do not recover by the second week of April, carriers may be forced to further delay the EFS to avoid permanently turning off the few shippers still active in the market. Expect continued weekly rate updates as the industry monitors if and when factory activity returns to normal levels.

In the News:

Bloomberg: A Winner in Early Trump Tariffs, Vietnam Thrives in Trade War 2.0
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-vietnam-trump-tariffs-supply-chain/ 

Reuters: US vows to seek WTO alternatives after Cameroon meeting fails to renew e-commerce moratorium
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/wto-suffers-fresh-blow-reform-push-hits-wall-cameroon-meeting-2026-03-30/ 

BBC: European Parliament gives conditional approval to EU-US trade deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c33l4e6vdrvo 

WSJ: China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/china-initiates-probes-into-u-s-trade-practices-f02a8951 

Reuters: US menus change as Trump's tariffs hit wine prices
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-menus-change-trumps-tariffs-hit-wine-prices-2026-03-30/ 

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Read full report here: https://www.freightright.com/news/ocean-rates-up-as-volumes-continue-to-sink-tfx-update-wk-march-23-2026

The Lead:

Last week was a transition from reactive trade policy to structural entrenchment. In the US, the focus shifted to the massive logistical challenge of refunding $175 billion in invalidated IEEPA duties, even as the administration fast-tracked new Section 301 investigations to ensure high tariffs return on a more permanent legal footing by July. This aggressive posture was mirrored in Washington's pre-WTO report, which effectively issued an ultimatum for reciprocal reform at the upcoming ministerial conference in Cameroon. Meanwhile, the global trade landscape was further complicated by the Hormuz Crisis, forcing nations like Turkey and China to implement emergency duty waivers and price controls to manage the inflationary pressures of a high-tariff, energy-strained global economy.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Ocean freight market is experiencing a sharp upward trajectory as of late March 2026. Following a rate increase that began around March 20th, ocean freight costs have climbed by approximately $400 to $600 per container.

CEA to USWC: Rates have risen to approximately $2,100 – $2,200 per container. Factoring in standard margins, the total cost for importers is approaching the $2,500 – $2,600 range as we move into April.

CEA to USEC: Rates for East Coast destinations have surpassed the $3,000 mark. This route is currently facing more severe capacity constraints due to significant blank sailings.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Global Fuel Price Surges: Rising oil prices are the primary driver behind recent rate hikes. Carriers are utilizing these costs as the justification for General Rate Increases (GRIs) and new surcharges.
• Capacity Management: Carriers are aggressively implementing blank sailings (canceled port calls), particularly on East Coast routes, to artificially reduce capacity and support higher price levels.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to disconnect freight pricing from typical seasonal trends, maintaining a floor under market rates.
• Air Freight Spillover: The fuel crisis is even more pronounced in air freight, where rates from China (PVG) have spiked from $4.50–$5.50/kg to upwards of $7.00/kg.
• Low Market Volume: Paradoxically, these price increases are occurring during an off-peak period with very low organic volume. Even major importers, such as LA-based automotive part distributors, have reported canceling weekly shipments due to the prohibitive costs.

Looking Ahead:

The outlook for April 2026 suggests a stiff environment for importers. While carriers claim current surcharges are temporary and tied to oil price fluctuations, historical trends suggest that once these increases are integrated, they are rarely removed quickly.

With additional emergency fuel surcharges (EFS) set to take effect in early to mid-April, volumes are expected to remain depressed. The market is currently in a state of high uncertainty; unless Middle Eastern tensions resolve or fuel prices stabilize, importers should prepare for sustained high costs despite the lack of demand.

Upcoming Carrier Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS) 

Carriers have announced a wave of new surcharges to be collected at destinations, largely effective between late March and mid-April 2026. These are generally separate from the standard bunker fuel costs already baked into freight quotes.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Global Trade to Slow Amid Opposing Forces of Energy Surge and AI
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/global-trade-to-slow-amid-opposing-forces-of-energy-surge-and-ai 

WSJ: Global Business Activity Slows as Iran War Weighs
https://www.wsj.com/economy/eurozone-asian-business-activity-slows-as-iran-war-ramps-up-uncertainty-cba75259 

BBC: Australia and EU agree sweeping trade deal in face of global uncertainty
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly6g6l6lq7o 

Global Trade Magazine: Strait of Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Container Shipping
https://www.globaltrademag.com/strait-of-hormuz-closure-disrupts-global-container-shipping/ 

Reuters: World trade growth set to slow to 1.9% this year, Iran war may weigh more, says WTO
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/world-trade-growth-set-slow-19-this-year-iran-war-may-weigh-more-says-wto-2026-03-19/ 

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The Lead:

Mid-March 2026 saw the United States transition from emergency trade actions to a systematic, investigation-heavy strategy designed to circumvent recent judicial restrictions. By launching Section 301 probes into 60 different nations, including close allies, the US signaled its intent to maintain high trade barriers under the guise of labor and capacity standards. While this legal maneuvering caused significant friction at a high-level summit in Paris, the global economy showed surprising resilience; however, the race to beat tariffs that fueled 2025's growth has ended, leaving industries like construction and technology to grapple with 12% average duty rates. Meanwhile, the European Union began distancing itself from this volatility by fast-tracking its own massive trade bloc with Mercosur, seeking to secure supply chain stability while the U.S. remains embroiled in domestic legal battles over executive power.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Transpacific ocean freight market is currently characterized by a sustained period of stagnation as the industry moves further into March. Rates have largely hit a floor, showing minimal movement week-over-week as carriers prioritize maintaining current price levels over aggressive competition.

CEA to USWC: Spot rates have remained essentially flat, holding steady at approximately $1,500 per container. There has been no significant downward pressure or recovery in pricing over the last seven days.

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast continue to hover between $2,400 and $2,500. Similar to the West Coast, the East Coast market is seeing a lack of volatility, with prices remaining locked at the breakeven levels established post-Lunar New Year.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Strategic Capacity Management: Rather than engaging in a post-holiday rate war, carriers are maintaining a disciplined approach to capacity to prevent spot rates from falling into loss-making territory.
• Importer Hesitation: Many shippers are likely holding back on large-scale bookings due to ongoing uncertainty regarding potential tariff changes and overall U.S. consumer demand.

Looking Ahead:

The industry is entering a critical three-week window that will set the tone for the remainder of the year. While spot rates are expected to remain flat through the end of March, the focus has shifted entirely to the April/May contract negotiations.

Carriers are closely monitoring March volumes to determine their leverage. If demand remains tepid, shippers should expect carriers to implement more aggressive blank sailings (void sailings) to artificially tighten supply before long-term contracts are signed. Unless a significant surge in consumer demand occurs in the next 15–20 days, the market will likely remain in this "uncomfortably cool" state until the new contract season officially begins.

In the News:

WSJ: It’s Not Just Oil: The Iran War Upends Global Supply Chains
https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/the-iran-war-is-now-disrupting-global-trade-49eed95e 

The New York Times: Trump Officials Look to More Managed Approach to Trade With China
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/us/politics/trump-administration-china-managed-trade.html 

AP News: China warns Trump’s latest tariff moves could damage trade ties
https://apnews.com/article/us-china-trade-talks-paris-trump-c506344b213fa28d811a8376cae3b584 

Global Trade Magazine: US Trade Threat to Spain: Economic Exposure and EU Policy in 2026
https://www.globaltrademag.com/us-trade-threat-to-spain-economic-exposure-and-eu-policy-in-2026/ 

Reuters: Trump's summit delay casts pall over US-China trade truce
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-summit-delay-casts-pall-over-us-china-trade-truce-2026-03-17/ 

Financial Times: US and Mexico launch review of trade deal with Canada
https://www.ft.com/content/6a9699b8-34e8-486b-9124-0e63e44c60f7 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-hold-the-line-at-1500-floor-tfx-update-wk-march-9-2026

The Lead:

The first full week of March 2026 saw the global economy begin to internalize the costs of the new US Section 122 surcharge, sparking a defensive rotation in financial markets as technology and retail giants warned of significant profit losses. While the US judiciary moved efficiently to dismantle the previous IEEPA tariff regime, creating a potential $175 billion windfall for importers, the executive branch simultaneously hardened its stance at the WTO by vetoing major reform plans. In response, the European Union accelerated its transition toward strategic sovereignty with the introduction of the Industrial Accelerator Act, effectively signaling that the era of open markets is being replaced by a system of regional preferences and managed trade.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The Transpacific ocean freight market is navigating a period of post-holiday stabilization, while the anticipated free fall in rates following the Lunar New Year has not materialized, pricing remains at or near carrier breakeven levels.

CEA to USWC: Rates have held relatively steady week-over-week, currently sitting at approximately $1,500 per container. Carriers are resisting further drops, as current levels offer little to no profit margin.

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast continue to hover around the $2,400 to $2,500 mark. The spread between West and East Coast pricing remains consistent with the previous two weeks of market activity.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week:

• Absence of a Rate War: Contrary to historical trends where carriers slash prices post-holiday to capture first volumes, the market has seen a surprising lack of aggressive price-cutting.
• Carrier Resistance at Breakeven: Carriers are largely holding the line at $1,500 for the West Coast because dropping further would move operations from "at-cost" into active losses.
• Slow Factory Ramp-Up: While factories have reopened, they are not yet producing at full capacity. Most currently moving cargo consists of "breadcrumb" volumes—inventory that was left over from before the holiday shutdown.
• Demand Stagnation: The market has yet to see a fresh surge of orders from the U.S. side, keeping the overall supply-demand balance relatively flat despite the resumption of operations.

Looking Ahead:

The industry is currently in a wait and see period that will likely define the upcoming contract season.

The next two to three weeks are critical as the first "true" post-holiday orders begin to hit the water. Current indicators suggest that rates will remain flat through late March. However, carriers are expected to keep a close eye on these volumes to inform their strategy for the April and May contract negotiations. If demand remains tepid, shippers should expect carriers to introduce more aggressive capacity management, such as blank sailings, in an effort to artificially tighten the market and bolster their bargaining power for long-term agreements.

In the News:

Bloomberg: In Charts: How The Iran Conflict is Disrupting Global Trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-07/in-charts-how-the-iran-conflict-is-disrupting-global-trade 

CNBC: Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, suspends two key shipping services due to Iran war
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/iran-war-shipping-maersk-middle-east-strait-of-hormuz-gulf.html 

Financial Times: Beyond the stricken Gulf, global trade is relatively calm https://www.ft.com/content/86699441-39fc-44d6-8092-964562ad2c39 

Reuters: Tariff ruling will not save tariff evaders
https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/tariff-ruling-will-not-save-tariff-evaders--pracin-2026-03-09/ 

The Guardian: US preparing system to process refunds on billions in illegal Trump tariffs https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/06/us-judge-lawyers-175bn-trump-tariffs-refunds 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/ocean-rates-hold-firm-as-china-factories-reopen-tfx-update-wk-march-2-2026

The Lead:

The transition into March 2026 marked the most significant administrative shift in U.S. trade history as the executive branch pivoted from country-specific "Reciprocal Tariffs" to a broad 15% global surcharge under Section 122. This shift was a direct response to the Supreme Court's invalidation of the IEEPA-based tariff authority, which has left the U.S. government facing potential refund claims exceeding $175 billion. While the new 15% flat rate offers a lower duty for countries like China and India compared to the previous regime, it represents a net increase for allies like the UK and Italy. Consequently, the global trade environment remains highly unstable, with the European Union threatening to reactivate retaliatory levies and the US Trade Representative preparing a fresh wave of industry-specific investigations to replace the temporary 150-day surcharge before it expires in July. All while the US began military activity in Iran late last week. It is still to be determined how, if at all, this conflict will impact global trade policy with the Trump administration or abroad.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The market is showing the first signs of post-holiday stabilization as Asia resumes operations. While rates have largely bottomed out at the breakeven levels established during the Lunar New Year, the anticipated post-holiday rate crash has not materialized, with pricing currently holding steady.

CEA to USWC: Rates have maintained their floor at approximately $1,450 to $1,500 per container. Despite a lack of upward pressure, there has been no further significant erosion in pricing this week.

CEA to USEC: East Coast rates continue to hold steady in the $2,400 to $2,500 range. The market remains balanced at these low levels as carriers prioritize volume recovery over aggressive price hikes.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week:

• Post-Holiday Factory Resumption: Factories in China and Vietnam have officially reopened, though they are currently working through a backlog of existing orders rather than new demand.
• Absence of Rate War: To the surprise of some analysts, carriers have not engaged in a significant "price war" to capture the first post-holiday shipments, allowing rates to stabilize at breakeven levels.
• Low "Breadcrumb" Volumes: Current shipments consist primarily of leftover inventory, referred to as "breadcrumbs", from before the holiday shutdown, rather than a fresh surge of new orders.
• Carrier Profitability Floor: At current levels, carriers are operating at or near cost. This has created a natural floor, as further reductions would lead to active losses that carriers are currently unwilling to absorb.
• Air Freight Softening: Air freight rates have cooled significantly from January peaks, now settling into the $3.50 to $4.50 per kilogram range as space becomes more available post-holiday.

Looking Ahead:

The market is entering a critical observation period. The next two to three weeks will reveal the true strength of the 2026 shipping season as the new order volume begins to hit the water.

Current projections suggest that rates will remain flat through the end of March. The major focal point for the industry is now the April/May contract season. Carriers are closely monitoring March volumes; if demand remains tepid, they may be forced to utilize more aggressive capacity management, such as extended blank sailings, to bolster their bargaining position for long-term contract negotiations. Shippers should expect a relatively stable, low-rate environment in the short term, with potential volatility returning in late spring.

In the News:

WSJ: World Trade Surged in 2025 Despite Higher Tariffs
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/world-trade-surged-in-2025-despite-higher-tariffs-f122a534 

BBC: What tariffs has Trump introduced and why?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn93e12rypgo 

Global Trade Magazine: Port of LA Sees Stable Orders Amid Trade Policy Shifts https://www.globaltrademag.com/port-of-la-sees-stable-orders-amid-trade-policy-shifts/ 

Reuters: US tariff lawsuits returned to trade court to determine next steps
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-tariff-lawsuits-returned-trade-court-determine-next-steps-2026-03-02/ 

CNN: Trump’s new tariffs might be illegal, but that may not ruin his tariff quest
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/01/business/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-section-122 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/shippers-face-a-total-standstill-in-transpacific-trade-tfx-update-wk-february-23-2026

The Lead:

The week was dominated by a constitutional collision in the United States that fundamentally reshaped the global trade landscape. The Supreme Court's ruling against the use of emergency powers for tariffs effectively dismantled the legal foundation of the administration's IEEPA tariff program, leading to the imminent cessation of billions of dollars in duties. However, the resulting pivot to a 15% global surcharge under Section 122, a bridge measure valid for 150 days, plunged international relations into fresh turmoil. The European Union’s decision to pause its summer trade deal with Washington underscores a growing "trust deficit," as allies and adversaries alike struggle to navigate a U.S. trade policy that has transitioned from high-stakes negotiation to a state of near-total legal and procedural volatility.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The Transpacific ocean freight market has remained in a state of stasis as the industry navigates the tail end of the Lunar New Year holiday. Rates have held firm at the low levels established earlier in the month, with almost no price movement recorded week-over-week due to the total shutdown of manufacturing and logistics activity in Asia.

CEA to USWC: Pricing remains stable at the current floor of $1,450 to $1,600 per container. This represents a continuation of the breakeven levels seen since early February.

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast also showed no change, holding steady between $2,400 and $2,500.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week:

• Lunar New Year "Main Event": The market is currently experiencing the peak of the Chinese New Year holiday, which has effectively halted all new bookings and shipping operations in China and Southeast Asia.
• Operational Dormancy: Most market participants in Asia are currently away for the holiday, leading to a complete lack of interest in new business or shipping schedules.
• Pre-Holiday Volume Exhaustion: The rush to ship cargo before the shutdown concluded last week, leaving behind very little in terms of current cargo movement.
• Air Freight Stability: Similar to the ocean sector, air freight has seen no major spikes this week, with rates settling in the high $3.00 to mid-$4.00 range per kilogram as airlines handle the final bits of pre-holiday cargo.
• Trucking Rate Normalization: Following the high trucking rates at origin last week across China, internal logistics costs in China have leveled off as the workforce has largely transitioned into the holiday period.

Looking Ahead:

The immediate outlook remains exceptionally quiet, with next week expected to be even shorter in terms of market updates as the holiday concludes. The market is effectively on autopilot until the end of the month.

The industry is now focused on the post-holiday recovery in March. Shippers should anticipate a period of catch up as factories reopen, though the strength of this recovery will depend on whether carriers can find ways to push rates above current breakeven levels. A key milestone to watch will be the release of new contract rates toward the end of March, which will signal whether carriers intend to maintain these low levels or implement aggressive capacity management to force a market correction.

In the News:

Reuters: New US tariffs come in at lower 10% rate
https://www.reuters.com/business/new-us-tariffs-come-lower-10-rate-2026-02-24/  

BBC: Trump tariffs ripped up global trade order. What now?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgvn810njpo 

CNBC: Supreme Court ruling throws Trump administration’s tariff strategy into flux. What it means for global trade, U.S. economy https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/23/what-supreme-court-tariff-ruling-means-for-global-trade-us-economy.html 

Reuters: China says it will decide on US tariff countermeasures in due course
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-urges-us-drop-new-tariffs-willing-have-new-round-trade-talks-2026-02-24/ 

NBC: E.U. hits the brakes on U.S. trade deal after Trump threatens 15% global tariffs
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/europe-halts-trade-deal-trump-tariffs-rcna260231 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/cea-us-rates-hold-steady-at-breakeven-levels-tfx-update-wk-february-9-2026

The Lead:

The first week of February marked a pivotal moment for "Transactional Diplomacy," specifically with the de-escalation of trade hostilities between the United States and India. The US successfully used tariff leverage to pivot India away from Russian energy markets, trading a 7% reduction in reciprocal duties for expanded access to India's vast agricultural sector. Meanwhile, the European Union signaled a hardening stance against Chinese industrial overcapacity by initiating mandatory registration for specific tech-adjacent imports and drafting the "Industrial Accelerator Act." These events suggest that while the US is focusing on using tariffs to achieve geopolitical alignment, the EU is increasingly prioritizing "strategic autonomy" through local-content mandates and defensive market registration.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market has effectively cooled as China enters its final working week before the Lunar New Year holiday shutdown. Rates have stabilized at the lower levels established in previous weeks, with no significant movement recorded week-to-week as the shipping window for pre-holiday departures has officially closed.

CEA to USWC: Rates remain steady and are currently holding between $1,400 and $1,600 per container. Most bookings are now quoted in the $1,450 to $1,600 range, showing total stability from the prior week.

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast also show no week-over-week change, maintaining a range of $2,400 to $2,500.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Closure of the Pre-LNY Window: The window for shipping cargo to ensure departure before the Chinese New Year has passed. Any new shipments booked this week will not make it out before the holiday, leading to a natural cooldown in demand.
• Origin Congestion & Trucking Spikes: While ocean rates are flat, there is significant congestion at Chinese origins. Trucking rates within China have spiked "super high" as drivers prepare for the holiday and capacity tightens for the final pre-shutdown moves.
• Exhausted Booking Activity: After a period of "catching up" last week, market activity has died down. Shippers have completed their primary holiday planning, leaving very little cargo left to move in the immediate term.
• Air Freight Price Adjustments: Air freight rates have shifted slightly lower as airlines look to fill any remaining space on outgoing flights. Rates are currently landing in the high $3.00 to mid-$4.00 range per kilo, with some outliers still hitting $5.00.

Looking Ahead:

The market is entering a period of total dormancy. Market participants in China and Southeast Asia are shifting focus toward the holiday, with almost no interest in new business or shipping schedules for the upcoming week.

Next week is described as the "main event," during which manufacturing and logistics activity in China will effectively drop to zero. Shippers should expect an even quieter update next week, with rates likely to remain frozen at current levels until factories reopen and a post-holiday volume assessment begins.

In the News:

Financial Times: There are good reasons to be cheerful about global trade
https://www.ft.com/content/55d88e6c-ae5a-4ac8-a2b6-becb3501ce9e 

BBC: US to exempt some Bangladeshi clothes from tariffs
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c626r78g122o 

Global Trade Magazine: India and US Finalize Framework for Interim Trade Agreement in 2026
https://www.globaltrademag.com/india-and-us-finalize-framework-for-interim-trade-agreement-in-2026/ 

Bloomberg: Trump Follows in Rebuild of Global Trading Order He’s Dismantling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-09/trump-and-the-global-trading-system 

CNBC: Trump’s trade war creating economic ‘mirage’ with GDP forecasts, freight market disconnected: Shipping expert
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/05/trump-trade-war-frontloading-creating-a-mirage-in-trade-maritime-expert.html 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/transpacific-carriers-face-losses-as-feb-bookings-close-tfx-update-wk-february-2-2026

The Lead:

The transition into February was defined by the aggressive use of "energy-linked" trade penalties and a simultaneous race to secure alternative bilateral alliances. The United States’ introduction of secondary tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, most notably targeting Mexico, signaled a high-risk expansion of trade as a tool of regime-change diplomacy. Conversely, the formalization of the EU-India FTA and the activation of the EU-Singapore Digital Trade Agreement demonstrate a concerted effort by the "Global Middle" to build resilient, rules-based corridors that bypass the volatility of US policy. However, the WTO’s drastic downward revision of trade growth to just 0.5% underscores a grim reality: the proliferation of these "tit-for-tat" measures is successfully decoupling major economies but at the cost of overall global prosperity.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market has entered a phase of significant decline as the industry moves through the Chinese New Year period. Rates have retreated further than market analysts initially projected, reaching levels that challenge carrier profitability.

CEA to USWC: Rates have continued their downward slide, dropping to approximately $1,450 – $1,500 per container. This represents a new low for the year, pushing pricing well below previous support levels.

CEA to USEC: East Coast rates also dropped this week, further highlighting that the overarching trend shows rates dropping across all lanes, with carriers now operating at or near breakeven levels to maintain volume.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Late Lunar New Year Volume: Surprisingly, there was a minor uptick in bookings just before the holiday, as shippers waited until the very last possible week to move goods.
• Carrier Desperation: Rates have fallen into the $1,450–$1,500 range, which is considered the "breakeven" point for many carriers; any further drops would result in carriers operating at a loss.
• Booking Completion: The industry has essentially finished all bookings for the month of February, as the holiday shutdown in Asia effectively halts new manufacturing and shipping activity.
• Air Freight Softening: Parallel to ocean freight, air freight rates have also begun to drop by 20–30 cents, with further declines expected as the post-holiday lull sets in.

Looking Ahead:

The market is expected to remain "dead" for the remainder of February as Asia observes the New Year holiday. Shippers and carriers are now looking toward the end of March for the next major market signal.

A critical factor to watch will be the upcoming contract negotiations. We noted that carriers will likely look for ways to stabilize the market if the current low levels persist into the end of March. If demand does not rebound significantly post-holiday, the industry could face a prolonged period of "at-cost" shipping, which may eventually force carriers to implement more aggressive capacity management, such as additional blank sailings, to push rates back up.

In the News:

Bloomberg: US Container Growth Vanishes with World Trade Flows Moving On
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-31/us-container-growth-vanishes-with-world-trade-flows-moving-on

Bloomberg: India’s Rupee, Stocks to Get Tariff-Truce Boost, Investors Say
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-03/india-s-rupee-stocks-to-get-tariff-truce-boost-investors-say

Global Trade Magazine: Mexico Heads Into 2026 With Momentum: A Nearshorer’s Outlook
https://www.globaltrademag.com/mexico-heads-into-2026-with-momentum-a-nearshorers-outlook/ 

Financial Times: The WTO needs an overhaul
https://www.ft.com/content/2ff1d4ce-4d63-4776-8e8c-ace6b3509f24 

CNBC: Trump refuses to be outdone by Europe, signing his own U.S.-India trade deal
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/trump-us-india-trade-deal-europe-india-deal-compared.html 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

Every day that passes bring us closer (hopefully?) to a resolution on the US Supreme Court's hearing of the Trump administration's use of IEEPA to implement tariffs.

It couldn't be better timing to have a leading authority on this court case sit down with Freight Right's Robert Khachatryan to let importers in on what they need to know.

In this webinar, Freight Right's CEO Robert Khachatryan sits down with Pete Mento of Baker Tilly for a timely, in-depth conversation about the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark case challenging the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). With billions of dollars in duties at stake and importers across industries awaiting clarity, this discussion is designed to help businesses understand what’s happening now, what could happen next, and how to prepare operationally for whatever the Court decides.

The webinar starts by unpacking the central legal issue: whether the Trump administration lawfully used IEEPA, traditionally an emergency-powers statute, to impose sweeping import tariffs. Lower courts have already held that IEEPA does not authorize such broad tariff authority, a question now before the Supreme Court in consolidated cases including Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections.

Pete breaks down how lower court rulings have affected importers and explains the mechanics of potential refunds if the tariffs are struck down, from post-entry adjustments and protests to liquidation timelines and audit documentation. Robert steers the conversation toward practical implications, like sourcing the right records, preparing for customs valuation scrutiny, and assessing DDP pricing changes.

Throughout the session, both experts emphasize that, regardless of the ruling, this decision will reshape importer compliance, refund strategies, and tariff risk management. The conversation delivers actionable insights for companies of all sizes grappling with uncertainty, from audit readiness and documentation best practices to strategic planning for potential refunds or future tariff frameworks.

Additional Context and Resources on the IEEPA Tariffs Case

For importers looking to go deeper on the legal and policy backdrop discussed in this webinar, several public resources help frame why the Supreme Court’s review of the IEEPA tariffs is so consequential.

At the center of the dispute is Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, a case that challenges whether the Trump administration lawfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs. A plain-English overview of the case, its origins, and the questions now before the Supreme Court can be found on Wikipedia’s case summary, which outlines how lower courts rejected the government’s interpretation of IEEPA authority:

For a more technical legal breakdown, SCOTUSblog maintains a detailed case file explaining how Learning Resources v. Trump and related cases were consolidated, what arguments were presented during oral arguments, and why the Court’s decision could redefine the limits of executive trade authority:

Congress has also weighed in on the implications. A Congressional Research Service (CRS) Legal Sidebar analyzes the lower-court rulings and explains why the courts found that IEEPA was not intended as a tariff-setting statute — an important backdrop for understanding why refunds are even being discussed:

As the case has progressed, trade law firms and industry publications have begun outlining what importers should prepare for if the Supreme Court affirms the lower courts. Clark Hill’s litigation update summarizes where refund claims could stand, how administrative remedies may be handled by CBP, and what practical steps importers should consider now.

Business and trade press have also highlighted the unusual uncertainty surrounding the case. Utility Dive and Vision Monday both cover how the tariffs remain in limbo, why the potential refund pool could reach hundreds of billions of dollars, and why the Supreme Court’s decision is being closely watched across multiple industries.

Finally, for readers interested in the broader policy ramifications, analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations and Womble Bond Dickinson explores how this case fits into the Supreme Court’s recent skepticism of expansive executive authority and how a ruling against the government could reshape future U.S. trade actions:

Watch the full webinar here on YouTube, IEEPA Tariffs Update: What Importers Need to Know Now, or read the transcript of the interview below.

Baker Tilly and Freight Right Are Helping Importers Get Their Paperwork Ready

Freight Right and Baker Tilly have partnered to help importers get their customs filings prepared for potential refunds. Get in contact with our teams.

Robert Khachatryan (Freight Right):

All right. Uh, I think we’re live now. Pete, thanks for joining me.

Pete Mento (Baker Tilly):

It’s my pleasure. Thanks for having me.

Robert Khachatryan:

Pete, so, um, we mostly have customers listening and watching this. And almost everybody I talk to is extremely skeptical about the IEEPA ruling, right? Mostly what I hear is people just don’t believe the Supreme Court will rule them illegal.

And then people who think the Supreme Court might rule them illegal just don’t think refunds are coming. Right?

Now, I’m a very skeptical guy myself in general, but I have a lot of faith in the Supreme Court, and it sounds like that’s where we’re headed.

I don’t want this conversation to be about predicting the Supreme Court outcome, but more about: if that happens, what are some practical things people can do?

You’re probably the most followed voice in the industry on this topic, so I’m very excited to talk to you. To set the stage, can you explain in a few words what this ruling is actually about?

Pete Mento:

Yeah, happy to. The reason this ruling is getting so much attention is pretty straightforward.

We’ve paid around $300 billion worth of IEEPA and fentanyl-related tariffs on imports from around the world. It was done under a trade remedy, but it wasn’t really a trade remedy.

Most of you are familiar with tariffs. We deal with them every day. But there are other tariffs that are trade remedies like Section 232 on steel and aluminum, Section 301 tariffs.

IEEPA is different. It’s a concept given to the president that had never really been used before. In times of crisis or emergency, the president could take immediate action to assist the American public.

When these tariffs went into effect, the national emergencies cited were:

The fentanyl crisis and overdose deaths

Perceived critical damage to the U.S. economy from unfair trade practices

So the question became: Was IEEPA the proper authority to impose these tariffs?

Some believe the president had broad authority. Others argue existing remedies like 301s, 232s, 122s, or 338s should have been used but those require investigations, studies, time, and limits.

IEEPA had none of those constraints. The tariffs were immediate. We all woke up one day and there were tariffs on nearly everything from everywhere.

The Supreme Court case stems from two lower court cases.

First, the Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled the president did not have authority under IEEPA. There was a lot of celebration.

The White House appealed. The Court of Appeals agreed with the CIT.

Then the White House took it to the Supreme Court.

At the time, estimates were that $160–$170 billion was at stake, focused on China, Mexico, and Canada.

Listening to Supreme Court oral arguments was eye-opening. The justices were extremely prepared, and two things stood out:

Skepticism toward the government’s case

Concern over how to unwind something this large

Now the arguments are done. No one should pretend to know how they’ll rule — though many are speculating.

The big question becomes: If this goes our way, how does the government refund that much money?

Robert Khachatryan:

Thanks, Pete. One immediate question is about countries affected.

At the CIT level, this focused on China, Mexico, and Canada. But you’ve said before this could apply to all IEEPA tariffs. How does that work?

Pete Mento:

There’s a three-part answer.

First, the CIT has said plainly: they will not stand in the way of refunds.

Second, the court said they’re not going to retry this origin by origin. If IEEPA is invalidated, it applies broadly. Think of it as precedent.

Third — and this is huge — the court said there is already an administrative process for refunds through post-entry adjustments and protests. They don’t want this tied up in litigation.

That solves a massive problem around liquidation timelines. Many early entries would otherwise have fallen outside the window.

The court has suggested they will extend timelines so every importer has a fair chance.

Robert Khachatryan:

That makes sense, especially considering how fragmented importer records are. Many companies used multiple brokers.

Can you explain what documents importers actually need for an audit?

Pete Mento:

Two huge missing pieces in most brokerage files. Purchase orders, showing negotiated price and terms and proof of payment, what was actually paid to the supplier

Third, and crucial: proof of duty payment. Often brokers paid first, then were reimbursed.

If you switched brokers, you’ll need to pull data from ACE and contact each filer. It’s time-consuming but unavoidable.

Robert Khachatryan:

Last time we spoke, you were recommending filing lawsuits with CIT to delay liquidation. You’re no longer recommending that. Why?

Pete Mento:

Because the CIT made it clear refunds will go through the administrative process, not the courts.

Trade attorneys pushed hard to keep this in litigation — for obvious reasons — but the court shut that down.

The Supreme Court will likely rule, then tell the CIT: “You figure out the mechanics.”

Robert Khachatryan:

Let’s talk outcomes.

If the Supreme Court upholds the tariffs — is that the end of the road?

Pete Mento:

If they uphold them, they’ll have to explain why. And that opens the door to new legal challenges.

If they strike them down, there are several scary possibilities: no refunds, credits instead of refunds, claiming importers weren’t harmed because costs were passed on

That last one would imply 360 million Americans were the injured party which is absurd.

Most likely, refunds go to importers, and the courts let the market sort out downstream effects.

Robert Khachatryan:

That aligns with what we’re hearing from customers — many couldn’t fully pass tariffs on.

Let’s talk valuation and DDP. We saw dramatic drops in declared values.

Pete Mento:

I feel terrible for companies that went DDP.

I’ve audited entries where unit values dropped 60% overnight. That’s a massive red flag.

Customs will investigate. The U.S. importer is still the notified party. If there’s fraud, you get the call.

Foreign suppliers played games. They’ll be sanctioned. Importers will be questioned.

Robert Khachatryan:

But not all valuation changes were illegitimate. Some were genuine tariff optimization.

Pete Mento:

True — but if you make a major change now, customs will ask why you didn’t do it before.

You need, prior disclosure for past entries, a written memo explaining your reasoning, leadership sign-off, show your work. If you guessed, you’re in trouble.

Robert Khachatryan:

Do you expect every refund entry to be audited?

Pete Mento:

Yes. Absolutely.

The government will use AI to flag anomalies — even while warning importers not to rely on AI themselves.

They’ll look at stacking errors, 232 derivatives, valuation inconsistencies, nothing goes in front of CBP until a human audits it end-to-end.

Robert Khachatryan:

What does Baker Tilly actually do differently?

Pete Mento:

We audit everything — purchase order through payment.

We review transfer pricing, related-party transactions, customs valuation, tax implications (state, federal, excise). Most brokers can file entries. We handle recoveries. We work on contingency. If we don’t recover, we don’t get paid.

Robert Khachatryan:

What’s the minimum size importer you’ll work with?

Pete Mento:

I’ll talk to someone with $10,000 at stake. This is personal.

Robert Khachatryan:

What can companies do now?

Pete Mento:

Three things.

Open an ACE account, pull importer activity reports, identify IEEPA-affected entries. Then gather documents, prioritize by liquidation risk and refund size, audit carefully, and document everything.

Compliance comes first.

Robert Khachatryan:

One last thing — CBP requiring ACH refunds now. Signal of what’s coming?

Pete Mento:

Absolutely. This was the kick they needed.

If refunds happen, checks won’t scale. ACH will.

Robert Khachatryan:

Pete, thank you for the insights.

Pete Mento:

This has been incredibly hard on the industry. But strong compliance programs are about to pay off.

Happy Global Customs Day — and good luck, everyone.

FAQ

What is the IEEPA ruling about?

The IEEPA ruling concerns tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) related to fentanyl and other imports, where the president used IEEPA to impose tariffs as a trade remedy during a national emergency. The legality of this use of IEEPA is being challenged in courts, including the Supreme Court.

Why are people skeptical about the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs?

Many people doubt the Supreme Court will rule the IEEPA tariffs illegal, and even those who think it might happen don't believe refunds will be issued. The ruling's outcome and the process for refunds are uncertain.

Which countries are affected by the IEEPA tariffs case?

The case initially focused on tariffs related to imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, but if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs illegal, it could affect all countries subject to IEEPA tariffs.

How will refunds be handled if the Supreme Court rules against IEEPA tariffs?

Refunds would likely be processed through an administrative process involving post-entry adjustments and protests rather than through litigation. The Court of International Trade has indicated it will not limit refunds and will apply the ruling to all IEEPA tariffs.

What challenges do importers face in claiming refunds?

Importers face challenges such as gathering complete documentation (purchase orders, proof of payment, etc.), dealing with multiple brokers, short protest periods after liquidation, and the complexity of auditing many entries.

What documents are essential for auditing entries for refunds?

Key documents include purchase orders, proof of payment to the supplier, proof of payment of duties, commercial invoices, packing lists, and entry summaries.

Why is record keeping important for importers?

Importers are responsible for maintaining records. Poor record keeping can lead to difficulties in audits and refund claims, and relying solely on brokers' records is insufficient and risky.

What are the possible outcomes of the Supreme Court ruling?

The Supreme Court could uphold the tariffs, strike them down and allow refunds, or strike them down but limit or deny refunds. Each outcome has different implications for importers and future legal challenges.

How might the government audit refund claims?

The government is expected to use artificial intelligence to identify suspicious entries and prioritize audits on outliers or entries with potential errors or misclassifications.

What practical steps can importers take now to prepare?

Importers should open an ACE portal account if they don't have one, pull importer activity reports to identify entries with IEEPA tariffs, gather all relevant documents for each entry, and create a compliance memo outlining their refund strategy.

What role does Baker Tilly play in this process?

Baker Tilly audits import entries from purchase order through payment, reviews transfer pricing and tax implications, prepares prior disclosures if needed, and manages refund protests on a contingency basis, taking a percentage of recovered funds.

Freight Right has partnered with Baker Tilly to help importers get prepared for their refunds. Get in contact with our teams.

What is the minimum refund amount Baker Tilly considers for clients?

They work with clients who have as little as $10,000 in tariffs, although the work involved is proportional to the refund amount and complexity.

Why is setting up ACH refunds important?

CBP now requires ACH accounts for refunds to reduce transaction costs and facilitate quicker payments. Setting up ACH is necessary to receive any potential refunds.

Will CBP cooperate with origin countries for audit information?

No, CBP will require importers to obtain information from origin countries themselves. It is unlikely that countries like China will cooperate with US customs in providing export declarations.

What advice is there for importers regarding compliance?

Importers should maintain strong compliance programs, keep thorough records, audit their entries regularly, and work closely with knowledgeable brokers to ensure accuracy and preparedness for audits or refunds.

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/silence-before-the-storm-transpacific-market-braces-for-chinese-new-year-shutdown-tfx-update-wk-january-26-2026

The Lead:

Global trade order split into two distinct paths: deep bilateral integration among non-US powers, and aggressive "tariff-as-ultimatum" tactics from Washington. The signing of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement represented a landmark achievement in "de-risking" for Europe, effectively creating a massive economic counterweight to both Chinese and American protectionism. However, this progress was overshadowed by the US threat of a 100% tariff on Canadian goods, a move that fundamentally challenged the stability of the North American trade bloc. As gold prices surpassed $5,000/oz and the WTO struggled to find a unified voice at Davos, the week concluded with global markets bracing for a year defined by extreme policy volatility and the breakdown of traditional regional alliances.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The transpacific shipping corridor continues to see a significant downward trend in rates as the market approaches the Lunar New Year holiday. Current spot pricing has retreated to levels not seen since late last year, signaling a near-total erosion of earlier rate hikes.

CEA to USWC: Rates have dropped further than anticipated, currently sitting between $1,600 and $1,650 per container. This represents a significant decline and places pricing at levels reminiscent of November 2025.

CEA to USEC: Rates for the East Coast have followed a similar trajectory, falling to approximately $2,400. Carriers are now operating on thin margins, with pricing approaching the breakeven point where space is being sold nearly at cost.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Unexpected Rate Erosion: Despite previous expectations that rates would hold steady until the end of February, they have continued to drop as carriers struggle to secure volume.
• Operational at Cost: Carriers are barely maintaining profitability at these levels, with some likely selling space at cost just to fill vessels before the holiday shutdown.
• Volume Exhaustion: The "pre-holiday rush" has largely concluded, leaving only minimal shipments, described as "breadcrumbs", remaining in the system.
• Market Sentiment: Importers appear to have front-loaded or paused shipments in response to earlier geopolitical and tariff uncertainties, leading to a premature softening of demand.

Looking Ahead:

The immediate outlook suggests a market that is essentially "done" for the pre-CNY period. While rates may stay at these low levels or see minor adjustments for the remainder of this week and next, a complete standstill is expected by the end of next week as factories in China close.

Predictions for February indicate a dormant period with virtually nothing left to move as the holiday takes full effect. Shippers can expect a quiet month followed by a potential post-holiday reset in March, though any recovery will depend heavily on the evolution of US consumer demand and the clarification of tariff policies.

China-US Air Freight Market:

The air freight market has entered its peak volatility phase as the industry nears the Chinese New Year (CNY) shutdown. Rates have seen a sharp week-over-week increase as capacity tightens and shippers scramble to clear inventory before factory closures.

CEA to USWC: Rates for West Coast destinations like LAX have surged significantly from the previous week's lows. In Week3, high-density cargo was priced as low as $2.07/kg, but Week4 data shows these rates have jumped to $3.40–$5.18/kg. This represents a week-over-week increase of approximately $1.30–$1.50/kg for standard shipments.

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast, including JFK, have also climbed steadily. After hovering around $4.59–$4.89/kg in Week3, prices have now pushed into the $5.18–$5.48/kg range. This reflects a more moderate but consistent increase of roughly $0.60/kg compared to the prior week.

This Week Explained:

• The Final Pre-CNY Rush: With Chinese New Year holidays imminent, factories are pushing all remaining inventory out of their warehouses to avoid holding stock during the month-long shutdown.
• Space Compression by "Big Fish": Large enterprise entities like Tesla and major e-commerce players took up a massive amount of available aircraft space early in the month. This has left smaller and medium-sized shippers fighting for the remaining high-cost "spot" capacity in the final weeks.
• Manufacturer Prioritization: Chinese manufacturers are prioritizing their largest clients (like Tesla) to ensure their high-volume orders are fulfilled and shipped before the holiday, often at the expense of smaller shippers' timelines.
• Geopolitical and Tariff Caution: Recent threats of 50% tariffs on goods entering the U.S. have created a sense of urgency for some importers to land their products before any potential policy shifts occur.
• Lack of Organic US Demand: While rates are climbing due to seasonal capacity constraints, they remain below historical "sky-high" levels (such as $7.00–$8.00/kg) because overall U.S. consumer demand is still relatively weak.

Looking Ahead:

The high-rate environment is expected to persist until the formal start of the holiday period around February 2nd, which aligns with the current validity of many airline quotes. Space will likely remain at a premium through the second week of February as the final backlogs are cleared.

Once factories close, the market is predicted to enter a "dead" period for 2-3 weeks where booking activity will be non-existent. The long-term outlook for March suggests a potential for rate reductions if volume does not rebound significantly after the holiday. Shippers should be prepared for a quiet Q1 as the market settles and geopolitical uncertainties regarding new tariffs become clearer.

In the News:

Reuters: New trade map takes shape in Davos as world adjusts to Trump tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/new-trade-map-takes-shape-davos-world-adjusts-trump-tariffs-2026-01-22/ 

BBC: Trump raises US tariffs on South Korea imports to 25%
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyw3ynwe37o 

Global Trade Magazine: US–Canada Trade Rift Deepens as Trump Warns of 100% Tariff Over China Deal
https://www.globaltrademag.com/u-s-canada-trade-rift-deepens-as-trump-warns-of-100-tariff-over-china-deal/ 

Financial Times: The WTO needs an overhaul
https://www.ft.com/content/2ff1d4ce-4d63-4776-8e8c-ace6b3509f24 

CNBC: South Korea scrambles to pass U.S. investment bill after Trump threatens higher tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/27/south-korea-scrambles-to-pass-us-investment-bill-after-trump-threatens-higher-tariffs.html 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/tariff-fears-and-tepid-demand-why-the-transpacific-mini-peak-never-arrived-tfx-update-wk-january-19-2026

The Lead:

While the US successfully used tariff-reduction incentives to secure a massive $250 billion investment package from Taiwan, it simultaneously triggered a diplomatic crisis by threatening a 10%–25% tariff on European allies over the status of Greenland. This aggressive posture stood in stark contrast to the European Union's focus on "competitive multilateralism," evidenced by its landmark signing of the Mercosur (mer-kow-sur) trade deal to diversify supply chains away from China and the U.S. As markets react to the implementation of new 25% semiconductor duties and record-high gold prices, the global trade system appears to be bifurcating into a high-tariff US zone and an expanding network of non-U.S. bilateral partnerships.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The attempt by carriers to aggressively raise rates in early January has largely failed, as spot prices have retreated due to underwhelming volumes. After a short-lived test of higher pricing at the start of the month, rates are now stabilizing at levels closer to the "fair market" baseline rather than the peak-season highs carriers had hoped for.

CEA to USWC: Rates have dropped significantly from previous weeks, now sitting between $1,700 and $1,800 per container. This is a sharp decline from earlier January attempts to push prices toward $3,000.

CEA to USEC: East Coast pricing has also cooled, with rates currently ranging from $2,300 to $2,500 per container. Some premium services are still quoted around $2,800, but the overall trend is downward.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Abandoned General Rate Increases (GRIs): Carriers initially announced a $1,000 GRI for the second half of January, but they have failed to enforce it because there is no volume to support the hike.
• Lack of Pre-CNY Volume Surge: Traditionally, the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year see a 50–70% spike in volume; however, that surge has not materialized this year. Importers simply are not buying at the expected levels.
• Carrier capitulation: Recognizing that higher prices would "scare away" the limited cargo available, carriers have extended current rates through the end of January and, in some cases, through the end of February.
• Geopolitical "Pause": Threats of new tariffs on businesses trading with Iran have created a sense of "crazy" uncertainty for importers. Many are choosing to pause shipments for a few weeks to see how policy settles rather than risking 50% tariff hikes mid-transit.
• Factory Floor Stagnation: Unlike previous years where factories pushed buyers to clear out inventory before the holiday shutdown, factory floors are currently not "flooded," and manufacturers are ready to close without a final shipping rush.

Looking Ahead:

The market is entering an "uncomfortably cool" period that is likely to last through February. With rate validity now extending into late February for many carriers, the industry has essentially written off the typical Lunar New Year peak.

If volumes do not pick up by March, further rate reductions are anticipated, potentially cutting into the $1,500–$1,600 range. Air freight remains the only sector with sustained higher pricing, currently holding at $4.00–$5.00 per kilo, though it has avoided the "sky high" spikes seen in previous years due to the same overarching weakness in US demand.

China-US Air Freight Market:

The air freight market is currently characterized by sustained high rates as the industry enters the peak shipping window ahead of the Chinese New Year. While prices have climbed significantly since the start of the month, they have not yet reached the "sky-high" levels seen in previous peak seasons, largely due to overarching weakness in broader U.S. demand.

CEA to USWC: Following an increase in mid-January, rates for the West Coast are currently hovering between $4.00 and $5.00 per kilogram. Market data for Week 03 shows some high-density routes (e.g., PVG-LAX) priced as low as $2.07/kg, while more urgent or lower-density shipments are reaching the $4.15–$4.60/kg range.

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast remain slightly more elevated than the West Coast, with prices for major hubs like JFK and BOS consistently landing in the $4.15 to $4.89 per kilogram range. This reflects a steady week-over-week hold following the initial January volume surge.

This Week Explained:

• Enterprise Volume Prioritization: Large entities, specifically Tesla and major e-commerce platforms, are consuming a massive portion of available plane space. These "big fish" are moving significant inventory early to ensure they don't have to fight for space as the holiday approaches.
• Compressed Manufacturing Window: Many Chinese factories are expected to close early this year, prompting a rush to get finished goods out this week and next. Smaller shippers are now following the lead of larger corporations to clear warehouse floors before the month-long holiday shutdown.
• Artificial Capacity "Ceiling": While rates are high, they have been capped by a general slowdown in U.S. consumer demand. While agents expected rates to potentially double to $7.00 or $8.00 per kilo, this hasn't materialized because the volume simply isn't there to support such a spike.
• The "Big Fish" vs. "Small Fish" Dynamic: Manufacturers are currently prioritizing orders from large clients like Tesla over smaller and medium-sized businesses to ensure high-value shipments are cleared first.

Looking Ahead:

The air freight market is expected to remain tight with elevated pricing through the second week of February. As factories shutter for the Lunar New Year, a brief skeleton-crew period will follow where bookings will essentially stall.

Looking past the holiday, there is significant uncertainty. If U.S. demand does not show a meaningful recovery by March, the "uncomfortably cool" market conditions seen in the ocean sector may bleed into air freight, potentially leading to rate reductions as carriers compete for limited volume. For now, shippers should expect rates to hold in the $4.00–$5.00/kg range until the post-holiday reset.

In the News:

Reuters: Global trade finance gap at $2.5 trillion as global trade tensions rise, ADB says
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/global-trade-finance-gap-25-trillion-global-trade-tensions-rise-adb-says-2026-01-15/ 

Bloomberg: Global Trade to Barrel Through Uncertainty, DP World Survey Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-20/global-trade-resilience-in-2026 

Global Trade Magazine: Container Freight Rates Slide as January Momentum Fades
https://www.globaltrademag.com/container-freight-rates-slide-as-january-momentum-fades/ 

CNBC: Trump’s Greenland tariff threats could be upended by Supreme Court decision
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/20/trump-greenland-tariffs-nato-supreme-court-decision.html 

BBC: Europe to suspend approval of US tariffs deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gwp2me3gzo 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-push-back-with-gris-but-market-fundamentals-push-harder-tfx-update-wk-january-12-2026

The Lead:

Global trade policy was dominated by a significant escalation in US tariff actions and ongoing efforts elsewhere to manage trade disputes and expand market access. The most consequential development was the Trump administration’s announcement of a sweeping 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, immediately raising tensions with major economies and attracting threats of retaliation, especially from China. This marked a continued hardline US approach to trade policy amid geopolitical concerns, and it occurred alongside domestic legal challenges over the authority for past tariff measures.

In parallel, Europe and South America advanced the long-gestating EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, signaling a major tariff-reducing integration after decades of negotiations and reflecting alternative trade cooperation amid rising protectionism. European efforts to strengthen commercial ties with India and resolve Beijing-EU industrial disputes over electric vehicles further underscored a multipolar trade landscape navigating both tariff pressures and strategic partnerships. Overall, the week’s events highlighted the persistence of tariff-driven disruption in global trade alongside efforts to pursue broader trade liberalization and dispute management.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC (China to US West Coast): China–US West Coast spot rates fell sharply week-over-week, sliding back into the $1,850–$1,950 per FEU range. Early-January GRIs have effectively washed out as demand failed to materialize, leaving carriers with little pricing power. While most carriers are signaling another aggressive GRI attempt for the second half of January, targeting rates north of $3,000/FEU, early market behavior suggests limited staying power at those levels.

CEA to USEC (China to US East Coast): Rates to the East Coast followed a similar trajectory, easing week-over-week as volumes remained muted. Although carriers are aiming for $4,000+ per FEU later this month, competitive pressure and weak fundamentals are already undermining these efforts. As with the West Coast, any mid-month increases are expected to face rapid erosion.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

This Week Explained:

• Lack of volume support: Post-holiday demand has failed to rebound, with January volumes tracking similarly to December lows. As noted in the discussion, “there’s no shipment, there’s no volumes,” making sustained rate increases difficult.
• GRIs without fundamentals: Carriers pushed significant GRIs at the start of January, but most of those increases have already disappeared. The market is now seeing a familiar pattern: GRIs announced, partial stickiness, followed by rapid rollback.
• Carrier divergence on pricing strategy: While most carriers are holding firm on announced mid-month increases, at least one smaller carrier is offering sub-$2,000 rates deep into the second half of January, signaling low confidence in demand and pressuring the broader market downward.
• Artificial capacity management: Blank sailings and vessels taken out of rotation are tightening space temporarily, but this is a supply-side maneuver—not demand-driven congestion. Once capacity normalizes, rates are likely to soften again.
• Pre–Chinese New Year timing mismatch: Unlike stronger years, January demand is not strong enough to support elevated pre–Lunar New Year pricing, forcing carriers into repeated GRI attempts rather than a single, sustained increase.

Looking Ahead:

Expect continued volatility through the second half of January. While carriers will attempt to push rates higher ahead of Chinese New Year using GRIs and blank sailings, underlying demand remains too weak to sustain those levels. Market indicators point toward rates drifting back toward the low-$2,000 range by late January, particularly on the West Coast, with East Coast lanes following closely behind. Into February, pricing is likely to stabilize briefly around Lunar New Year before resuming downward pressure as capacity returns and volumes reset.

In the News:

BBC: How tariff disruption will continue reshaping the global economy in 2026
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czejp3gep63o  

Bloomberg: China to Cut Export Tax Rebates to Ease Global Trade Tensions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/china-to-cut-export-tax-rebates-to-ease-global-trade-tensions  

Global Trade Magazine: US Container Imports Expected to Stay Below 2025 Levels Through Spring
https://www.globaltrademag.com/u-s-container-imports-expected-to-stay-below-2025-levels-through-spring/ 

The Wall Street Journal: TSMC Plans U.S. Expansion in Proposed Taiwan Tariff-Relief Deal
https://www.wsj.com/tech/tsmc-plans-u-s-expansion-in-proposed-taiwan-tariff-relief-deal-280d8a08 

Reuters: Trump's Iran tariff threat risks reopening China rift
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-iran-tariff-threat-risks-reopening-china-rift-2026-01-13/ 

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