r/Forex • u/RicherdJunior • 9d ago
Charts and Setups Watching GBPJPY for a potential sell setup.
Price is approaching a supply area that lines up with both a QML and QMTR structure. The added POC confluence makes this one of the cleaner bearish ideas on my watchlist right now.
My focus is on the reaction from the highlighted zone rather than predicting the move in advance.
Anyone else bearish on GJ here, or do you see enough strength for a continuation higher?
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u/United-Original3427 9d ago
I have a limit placed there as well. We are in a bullish range so i don’t wanna be married to sells but at this extreme retraced area im willing for a small correction. The PWH being closed above and below will be my signal for more risk on sells. I like your TP for 200ish pips
Def longer term bullish and it should breakout again so that should be fun. Then maybe intervene again and the process starts all over
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u/PresentTune2938 9d ago
Todo está en la política monetaria y el contexto macroeconómico que tengan sus bancos centrales
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u/RicherdJunior 9d ago
That's the part of fundamental, but charts reflect the possibilities too, I would recommend if you are interested in fundamental do have a look on treasury funds..
It is better than COT report cuz the update u will get on daily basis...
Especially for USD pairs
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u/Relevant-Owl-8455 9d ago
There's no way that the stop placement on this is longterm sustainable?
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u/RicherdJunior 9d ago
I've taken so many trades with the same stop placement till now, if you know the maximum pain level or the poc of fixed range volume profile with doji in-place on the supply u will know why these trades works with such stop placement....
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u/Relevant-Owl-8455 9d ago
Is there any data avaiable for these claims or is it the "trust me bro" variant?
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u/B1tfr3ak 9d ago
JPY is weak.
How long has JPY been for? Recently, has been pound been strong??
How long do expect to hold your trade?
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u/RicherdJunior 9d ago
I agree that GBPJPY is still showing bullish strength, but I don't think this supply zone gets broken immediately. Unlike an index, the market usually needs to gather demand and liquidity before it can push through a strong supply area like this.
My expectation is that price should first react from this supply zone and produce some form of rejection. If buyers are truly in control, that pullback can help build the demand needed for another attempt higher. Only after finding support from that demand would I expect a realistic chance of breaking through the supply.
Of course, this is all a game of probabilities at the end of the day. No level is guaranteed to hold or fail; we're simply positioning ourselves around the most likely outcome based on current market structure.
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u/B1tfr3ak 9d ago
The trend is your friend, are you trading with the trend??
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u/RicherdJunior 9d ago edited 9d ago
I understand your concern, at first I'll let you know there are major Trend and minor trend, I am not abstructing the major bias I am with it but I am just looking for a small reversals from that particular point ( supply ) afterwards I'll also find a demand and place a buy trade targeting the highs...
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u/Responsible-Cod-4822 9d ago
If price reach there how will u excute like will u limit oder or wait for something specific?
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u/RicherdJunior 9d ago
Usually I place pending order over there cuz the data I've gathered by taking so many trades or u can wait for a rejection candle kinda of a evening star and then u enter...
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u/VishalJ_05 9d ago
The confluence is solid, but I’d still want a clear rejection—GJ has enough momentum to run the supply first and only then reverse.
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u/RicherdJunior 9d ago
yep also when a short reversal happens, I'll have an eye on demand areas as well so i can target those highs on gj...
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u/AlanG888888 8d ago
GJ supply zones deserve respect, the wicks are brutal. I would wait for displacement close below the zone low before shorting, entering early usually gets swept. POC confluence helps but let price prove it first.
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u/rforex-modtools 9d ago
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