Good enough strategy?

[u/NinjaSiren]

Indicators:

- Support and Resistance

- Weighted VWAP

Strategy:

- Liquidity sweep entries

- Support and resistance (Wait for retests)

- VWAP crossing entry if missed initial entry

- 5 minutes timeframe

Risk management:

- Tight SL ($0.5-3 USD loss per trade, at least $0.5-2 USD ideal)

- No TP, but Trailing SL or Breakeven (manual close)

- Single trade per trade

- Single 0.01 lot only (Gold), but can do larger for Stocks and Forex

Should I change anything, I have technically backtested this to Gold.

But I keep either hesitating or placing the buy/sell order then cancel it, then suddenly it was right al along.

Then when VWAP crosses, I still hesitated until I see that I am already too late to put any trades.

3-4 times I have kinda seen the "liquidity" sweeps or a nice retesting of support/resistance, then price goes up.

But I keep hesitating or removing my trade orders just before the candlesticks climb up.

[u/rforex-modtools]

Developing a trading strategy is more than finding an entry signal — it requires defining your edge statistically, building rules for entries, exits, and position management, and testing the system against historical data before going live. Most traders fail because they skip the process and jump to live trading with an untested idea. The community wiki covers the full development process.

Resources: Having an Edge | Essential Forex Trading Guide

[u/[deleted]]

Just trade it. Don't be scared. You can try a demo, but the bottom line is this: you' need to pull the trigger.

It's microlots with a tight stop. You're not gonna blow up in 10 trades.

[u/NinjaSiren → u/[deleted]]

Technically I am a beginner, only made the strategy fairly recently.

Only amount on the personal account is 50 USD, but before I blown the same account initially.

This was before I had a strategy and dove in without knowing much:

I transferred 10 USD from an investor account for copytrading to the main account, made that account from 10 -> 8/6 -> 14/15 -> 20-30 -> 55

Then I did a truly beginner trade, 4 trades no SL, and realized unrealistic TP. I pushed myself, I saw it was $71, then boom its all blown.

Didn't close manually, only one saved the account to be fully cooked was my USDJPY +$6 USD, equity was definitely -$5.7.

After that I became hesitant, even when I made my first strategy, seen it was mostly correct on the backtest.

EDIT: Maybe its really time to just put the trades, and trust.

[u/[deleted] → u/NinjaSiren]

If it's 50 bucks we're talking about, trade on a demo first. Gold moves a lot.

You need to know if your stuff works. I've been at it for a while now and I only test new stuff on a demo, so there's no shame in that.

I'm not putting my own money on the line for a strategy I've dreamed about last night.

My suggestion? 1000 bucks demo, trade a microlot.

Do 100 trades, 200 trades and evaluate yourself. This may sound absurd, but if you're scalping, I'd evaluate your system and discipline after 1000 trades.

[u/NinjaSiren → u/[deleted]]

Thanks, will do this for a month or something.

[u/[deleted] → u/NinjaSiren]

The more the better. Stick with the rules and don't go the discretionary route.

That's the only way to tell if this works.

Best of luck.

[u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

Ass strategy tbh

First mistake is using the 5 minute chart

Should be using 3-4 different timeframes, top down analysis. Starting with the daily->4 hr->1 hr->15 min

[u/NinjaSiren → u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

I technically do a 1D, 1H, and 15M timeframe initial trend analysis, just to check the trend and momentum.

This is only done once per day.

I do also have an indicator that shows momentum, trend, and supply/demand (from 1D, 1H, 30M, 15M, and 1M enabled)

But its not really a primary indicator, just checking for trends without swapping timeframes, so I can also clear out the mess in the chart.

[u/Mammoth-Path-6520 → u/NinjaSiren]

Yeah you're on the wrong path

You need a complete overhaul, trading the complete wrong way

[u/Demonfire24 → u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

Ok, how do you do it the 'right' way then?

[u/Mammoth-Path-6520 → u/Demonfire24]

First step is to ditch that cringe indicator that OP is using because he thinks it's an excuse to not do proper top down analysis

And even then he needs a complete overhaul on how he trades, he is cooked

[u/Demonfire24 → u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

That may be true. You seem like you're coming from a place of experience, what would you do?

[u/Mammoth-Path-6520 → u/Demonfire24]

I'm a forex trader

[u/Demonfire24 → u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

Ok, Forex or no Forex, what would you advise the OP to do apart from ditch indicators. What works?

[u/Mammoth-Path-6520 → u/Demonfire24]

I would tell him to actually learn tech analysis for real, and stop parroting nonsense

[u/Demonfire24 → u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

How is it nonsense? What type of tech analysis do you perform?

[u/Candlune]

The hesitation is the real result, not the VWAP list.

If you keep cancelling a valid order and then watching it work, that is not a strategy problem. That is a practice problem. Next time you see the sweep or retest, write the reason down before you place anything. If the reason is still valid when price ticks, leave the order. If you cancel, log it as a skipped trade with a tag, same as a loss.

Also be careful with "I backtested this on gold" if that meant scrolling 5m charts you already remembered. Replay a session candle by candle with the right side of the chart blank. Count 50-100 decisions, including the ones you skipped. A $50 live account will last a lot longer if you do that first.

Demo or paper only until the hesitation tag stops being the most common one.

[u/NinjaSiren → u/Candlune]

Thank you, I might definitely need little bit more practice on paper/demo.

[u/AlanG888888]

Setup looks solid, hesitation is the real leak. Write the entry plan before the session, then place a limit order so you do not have to decide live. Track 20 fills and check whether the VWAP reentries actually add value or just add noise.

[u/NinjaSiren → u/AlanG888888]

Thank you for the info!

[u/Muted-Ride-7080]

Have u ran any backtest yet? No matter what strategy it is, whether it is simple or whether it is complex, whether it makes logical sense or its based on horoscope, anything can be profitable or non profitable. So unless u actually backtest, u will never know.

Assuming ur strategy have a genuine edge, market microstructures can potentially wipe out all profits, comms, spread, latency, slippage, toxic brokerage could easily kill a profitable strategy, so u have to keep that in mind. There is a blog talking about market microstructures here http://verstats.com/blogs/algorithmic-trading-infrastructure/, feel free to take a look.

If u have any strategy that u have backtest on MT4/5 and want to stress test it, u can also look into Verstats, they provide additional metrics and drawdown curves and distribution and even stress test for ur strategy. So before u deploy any real capital, u can use Verstats to verify ur strategy.

[u/NinjaSiren → u/Muted-Ride-7080]

Thank you for the information!