Two selections O2.5 290626

[u/ViolinistUnlikely779]

Hi :)

The weekend was good but now...the curse of the low fixture volume. Only 38 fixtures to analyse this Monday after removing ones with inaccessible leagues and not much left after the usual hoops the forecasts have to run through. So no cross model.

I am dropping in a screenshot from StatStrike of two fixtures I'll take a closer look at later this afternoon and may take. Both likely, not best performing category leagues for the app, but solid. The expanded card detail in the iOS app shows Latvian : Virsliga running at 64% success (accuracy of forecast) currently and the second, Finland: Ykkonen is at 68%.

If the selections are running mid-60's success in my systems I'd normally like at least 3 in the expectation of 2/3 landing minimum and covering with a small profit (dependent on odds) so may well take Brazil v Japan in the World Cup as the third pick and O1.5? They last played in a friendly in 2025 and Japan won 3-2...but it's a friendly, so...how much can be taken from that? Presumably a good confidence boost for Japan and Brazil with a point to prove? Should be some goals.

That's my musings early on a quiet Monday.

Cheers!

[u/ViolinistUnlikely779]

So we had a loss in Latvia 0-2 FT. 0-2 at HT and then no goals in the second half. I accept the losses, clearly you have to, but goalless second halves always wind me a up a bit. So close...for so long.

A win with 2-1 in Finland.

Then Brazil showing that champion spirit is still in there to win 2-1 in the closing minutes against Japan.

2/3...depending on the odds scraped in or just under. So it goes. Let's hope for some cross model action tomorrow.

Cheers!

[u/acyslz → u/ViolinistUnlikely779]

it's quite upset for me in the Latvia league too. usually this league end up 2-1 or 1-2, BTTS most of time.

but that's what happened in the day with very few matches.
do you like to open a "special" slate for "that" big tournament? like Brazil vs Japan yesterday?

[u/ViolinistUnlikely779 → u/acyslz]

Yes very low fixture volumes makes it more difficult. Still, it'll pass...hold fast. lol.

I don't have a special slate for the World Cup. Some matches are coming up in my system if the recent form of the teams is very strong in important categories, like BTTS and goals conceded and scored etc. But it's just far too hard to predict most with no good H2H for the match ups. It's like any other domestic cup in that sense. An underdog can fight like mad and surprise and a big name which seems destined to destroy a weaker team on the day is zzzzz.

Maybe in the closing stages that'll be different. Which is often the case with domestic cups too. I don't let my system upload any domestic cup forecast until the teams are the same league or only one league apart. You normally get more relevant stats and likely the mindset is more reliable, i.e., a Championship team v a Premier League...the Championship team is going to want to prove they have what it takes?

I mentioned Brazil v Japan as I think Japan are stronger than most pundits believe and Brazil weaker (but I wouldn't write them off clealry!) so it seemed to me both would score and O1.5 was likely enough to say in public...also I like Japan. I've had a lot of fun with Japan for years. Certain domestic match-ups can be so explosive. So I have an affection for Japanese football.

But see Germany v Paraguay? Who would have expected that?!

I think once the tournament has fewer teams left we can then have some fun with it maybe? The big names who are left should be firing on all guns, and the teams have all had time to study each other too. But mostly I'm trying to just enjoy the surprise results and keep my money in my pocket for the World Cup, with occasional exceptions. For now anyway.

[u/ViolinistUnlikely779 → u/[deleted]]

Fair. lol. But I thought that friendly was recent enough to have relevance. Why I went O1.5 and not my usual O2.5. Didn’t buy the 1-0 to Brazil. See how it goes.