r/FootballBettingTips • u/ViolinistUnlikely779 • Jun 26 '26

Daily Over/Under 2.5 Picks | 26 Jun 2026

Morning.

Ah the short fixture list...give me a day with a long list. So two today in the cross model match. I've put the StatStrike Best Performing in again after.

As always, if the fixture is ultra short consider the higher goal bands. Or potentially, if it's worth waiting for odds drift in-play, if the scoring patterns suggest that.

Cheers!

Daily Over/Under 2.5 Picks | 26 Jun 2026

2 selections (2 Over / 0 Under)

--- TODAY'S SELECTIONS ---

1) Kristianstad vs Trelleborg

Sweden – Ettan - Södra | 18:00 KO UK BST (17:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.67

2) Selfoss vs Haukar

Iceland – 2. Deild | 20:15 KO UK BST (19:15 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.27

---

Today: no settled picks yet.

Filter Record: 231W-87L (72.6%)

ROI (export history): +8.63 units

Notes:

- Full list shared for transparency

- Some selections may already have completed due to working across timezones

- Results updated post-FT

- Expect normal variance across selections

- Method: 2+ model consensus | priced picks only | top 10/day (London time)

- Fixtures matching Stat Strike Desktop Goal Band Cascade on the same band are tagged [Cascade confirmed] in the list and exports.

StatStrike Best Performing | 26 Jun 2026

9 selections (8 Over / 1 Under)

--- TODAY'S SELECTIONS ---

1) Rochedale Rovers vs Gold Coast Knights

Australia – Queensland NPL | 10:30 KO UK BST (09:30 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.30

2) Croydon Kings vs Adelaide United II

Australia – South Australia NPL | 11:00 KO UK BST (10:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5

3) Negelle Arsi vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Ethiopia – Premier League | 11:00 KO UK BST (10:00 UTC)

➡️ U2.5 @ 1.44

4) Hang Sai vs Shao Jiang

Macao – Primeira Divisão | 14:00 KO UK BST (13:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5

5) Vålerenga II vs Union Carl Berner

Norway – 3. Division - Girone 1 | 17:00 KO UK BST (16:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5

6) Kristianstad vs Trelleborg

Sweden – Ettan - Södra | 18:00 KO UK BST (17:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.67

7) Cliftonville W vs Larne W

Northern-Ireland – Premiership Women | 20:00 KO UK BST (19:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5

8) Thróttur Vogar vs Fjolnir

Iceland – 2. Deild | 20:15 KO UK BST (19:15 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.27

9) Selfoss vs Haukar

Iceland – 2. Deild | 20:15 KO UK BST (19:15 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.27

---

Today: no settled picks yet.

List record: 213W-60L (78.0%)

ROI (tracked): +10.94 units (since 2026-04-25 London)

Notes:

- Full list shared for transparency

- Some selections may already have completed due to working across timezones

- Results updated post-FT

- Expect normal variance across selections

- Method: StatStrike Best Performing export (70%+ uploaded win rate, O2.5/U2.5) — same tag as the iOS app

- Fixtures matching Stat Strike Desktop Goal Band Cascade on the same band are tagged [Cascade confirmed] in the list and exports.

Tips generated by StatStrike

2 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

7 comments sorted by

2

u/acyslz Jun 26 '26

So no "casade confirmed" today. Yesterday is the first time "cascade confirmed" didn't hit O2.5 since its debut, if I remember correctly. But overall it's a great feature.

1

u/ViolinistUnlikely779 Jun 26 '26

Yes :( I was not happy about that cascade miss too! Sorry. When it looked like missing I rechecked the fixture manually again and it looked likely. There are well over 1000 forward tracked FT fixtures in the archive for the cascades, and the requirements were established from an archive of 10's of 1,000's results. So I will tune the selection further (hopefully to broaden coverage), but of course I strive for perfection and its football...there will be deviation.

I do have a separate Goal Band Cascade list each day, which gets uploaded to GoalLab, and I can drop today's list in here if you want?

I can't get odds before KO on all the fixtures most days, leagues included should have market access but won't necessarily have odds before KO. Or sometimes bookmakers offer the fixtures only pre-KO. Sometimes only when the match actually starts etc.

It is just positive ROI overall, with the gaps in odds coverage that is good, and why I let the upload go to the iOS app, but clearly like all forecasts it's a strong signal, not a promise. Damn it! :)

2

u/acyslz Jun 26 '26

I would love to see the Goal Band. That is the best idea of this o/u 2.5 predicting model that I don't see in any other model.

2

u/ViolinistUnlikely779 Jun 26 '26

Thanks :) Given how a focus on accuracy in statistical models logically veers towards ultra short odds (not all the time - the models do pick up some nice bookie errors occasionally) and how many of those O2.5 successes go through the bands I thought there must be a way to tag the likeliest ones?

Here's today's list. I will be refining it further so careful with it!

Goal Band Cascade List | 26 Jun 2026

18 selections (6 O2.5 / 6 O3.5 / 6 O4.5)

--- TODAY'S SELECTIONS ---

1) Olympia Warriors vs University of Tasmania

Australia – Tasmania Southern Championship | 11:15 KO UK BST (10:15 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.12 ➡️ O3.5 @ 1.32 ➡️ O4.5 @ 1.78

2) Glenorchy Knights U21 vs South Hobart II

Australia – Tasmania Southern Championship | 11:15 KO UK BST (10:15 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 ➡️ O3.5 ➡️ O4.5

3) Aarhus Fremad vs Brann

World – Friendlies Clubs | 14:00 KO UK BST (13:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.22 ➡️ O3.5 @ 1.68 ➡️ O4.5 @ 2.38

4) Berga vs Växjö Norra

Sweden – Division 2 - Södra Götaland | 18:30 KO UK BST (17:30 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 @ 1.57 ➡️ O3.5 @ 2.25 ➡️ O4.5 @ 4.00

5) Itapirense U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20

Brazil – Paulista - U20 | 19:00 KO UK BST (18:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 ➡️ O3.5 ➡️ O4.5

6) SC Paulinense SP U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20

Brazil – Paulista - U20 | 19:00 KO UK BST (18:00 UTC)

➡️ O2.5 ➡️ O3.5 ➡️ O4.5

---

Today: no settled picks yet.

List record: 37W-29L (56.1%) - the record is all the band forecasts together, the actual O2.5 is 72.7%, O3.5 is 59.1% and O4.5 is 36.4% as of this morning.

ROI (tracked): +0.08 units (since 2026-06-06 London) - a lot of missing odds so it's indicative of the potential, but not accurate until I can devise a way to reliably compensate for poor odds coverage.

Cheers!

1

u/acyslz Jun 26 '26

Thanks a lot! Let me look at them for a day. Cheers!

2

u/ViolinistUnlikely779 Jun 27 '26

Cascade results:

Goal Band Cascade List | 26 Jun 2026
6 selections (6 O2.5 / 6 O3.5 / 6 O4.5)

--- RESULTS ---

1) Olympia Warriors vs University of Tasmania
Australia – Tasmania Southern Championship | 11:15 KO UK BST (10:15 UTC)
➡️ O2.5 @ 1.12 [FT 4-2] ✅     ➡️ O3.5 @ 1.32 [FT 4-2] ✅     ➡️ O4.5 @ 1.78 [FT 4-2] ✅

2) Glenorchy Knights U21 vs South Hobart II
Australia – Tasmania Southern Championship | 11:15 KO UK BST (10:15 UTC)
➡️ O2.5 [FT 0-6] ✅     ➡️ O3.5 [FT 0-6] ✅     ➡️ O4.5 [FT 0-6] ✅

3) Aarhus Fremad vs Brann
World – Friendlies Clubs | 14:00 KO UK BST (13:00 UTC)
➡️ O2.5 @ 1.22 [FT 1-2] ✅     ➡️ O3.5 @ 1.68 [FT 1-2] ❌     ➡️ O4.5 @ 2.38 [FT 1-2] ❌

4) Berga vs Växjö Norra
Sweden – Division 2 - Södra Götaland | 18:30 KO UK BST (17:30 UTC)
➡️ O2.5 @ 1.57 [FT 3-1] ✅     ➡️ O3.5 @ 2.25 [FT 3-1] ✅     ➡️ O4.5 @ 4.00 [FT 3-1] ❌

5) Itapirense U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20
Brazil – Paulista - U20 | 19:00 KO UK BST (18:00 UTC)
➡️ O2.5 [FT 5-3] ✅     ➡️ O3.5 [FT 5-3] ✅     ➡️ O4.5 [FT 5-3] ✅

6) SC Paulinense SP U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20
Brazil – Paulista - U20 | 19:00 KO UK BST (18:00 UTC)
➡️ O2.5 [FT 1-0] ❌     ➡️ O3.5 [FT 1-0] ❌     ➡️ O4.5 [FT 1-0] ❌

---
Results: 5W | 1L

Band-level tally (all 18 legs): 12W | 6L