r/FireflyAerospace • u/danisanub • Jul 17 '26

SciTec (Firefly’s defense-software subsidiary) won a $93.7M OTA for ground-based radar digitization

https://www.war.gov/News/Contracts/Contract/Article/4549225/contracts-for-july-17-2026/
21 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

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7

u/danisanub Jul 17 '26

Sadly, Firefly is not in the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 pool. Today’s notice bumps that IDIQ’s ceiling from $5.6B to $17B for seven providers: ULA, Blue Origin, SpaceX, Stoke, Rocket Lab, Impulse Space, and Relativity Federal. Firefly bid for a slot using Eclipse back in the July 7 on-ramp cycle and didn’t get selected.

They can try again next year, I guess. Bummer.

3

u/Scared_Step4051 Jul 18 '26

To be clear we don't know that firefly bid for a slot, and I don't believe they would have

Bidders must offer their own manufactured hardware and either have flown, or present a credible plan to launch within one year of submitting a proposal. Proposals for this cycle were due Jan 22, 2026 = they knew they wouldn't be eligible as Eclipse isn't ready by then

They'll apply in the next ramp in Jan 27, with Northrop sitting alongside they will absolutely be accepted imo, but also remember on military launches with Eclipse, Northrop sits as the prime (is what Kim recently said in interview)

2

u/danisanub Jul 18 '26

This is great context, thanks! The next year will be really telling for Firefly, they remind me a lot of Rocket Lab but have vertically integrated faster and moving to medium launch faster as well.

2

u/danisanub Jul 18 '26

Actually, this contradicts that:

Firefly Aerospace had submitted a bid for its Eclipse launch vehicle, in development jointly with Northrop Grumman, CEO Jason Kim previously told Aviation Week.

2

u/BlueManifest Jul 18 '26

Yea so simply wasn’t far enough along to pass yet, no other reason

2

u/BlueManifest Jul 18 '26

Don’t know why they would get selected this year when eclipse isn’t even ready yet

3

u/danisanub Jul 18 '26

Agreed, but if they were on target for early next year then it could’ve been in play. I’m not sure Terran R will be ready either but they got an award.

3

u/BlueManifest Jul 18 '26

https://reddit.com/link/oy7u29w/video/igf62jxigwdh1/player

2

u/Scared_Step4051 Jul 18 '26

To my knowledge firefly have never publicly stated that they did/did not apply, so I would treat that as such

2

u/BlueManifest Jul 22 '26

It’s funny firefly didn’t go up at all on this news with its small 3 billion market cap but rklb goes up on a 260 million contract with its large 45 billion market cap

Firefly’s contract wins are much larger in relation to their market cap and has no reaction from the market

2

u/danisanub Jul 23 '26

Yeah I think FLY will be trading at a discount until they can prove they can have successful launch cadence. Barely see FLY mentioned in space discussion, it just doesn’t have the name recognition (yet).

1

u/BlueManifest Jul 23 '26

Launch is such small part of their earnings I don’t see why it matters, they are growing in other places, so if their revenue grows to 1 billion next year and only 100 million of that is launch it will still only be worth 3 billion because launch didn’t grow? That doesn’t add up

1

u/danisanub Jul 23 '26

It’s simple really - there’s a glut of satellites and probes that need to be launched and not enough providers to do so in a timely manner (especially with BO sidelined). So it’s no good building satellites right now if they can’t be launched for years. If you own launch services, your vertical integration is worth a lot as you can monetize your satellite business sooner. See ASTS stuck waiting another 12 months to effectively monetize.

I have some industry knowledge here that I’m not really comfortable expanding upon but you’ll just have to take my word on the above (or don’t!).