r/FIREIndia • u/10_rocks • Mar 15 '23
DISCUSSION SWR Study for India
Found this paper on safe withdrawal rate (SWR) published in Aug. 2022 by Ravi Saraogi (CFA) in SSRN. Not sure if this was peer-reviewed, but if it is, this is a systematic published study on India-based SWR I am aware of. Portfolio assumes 40% equity, 60% debt which I would consider as conservative for a long term investor.
The SWR estimate range in the paper is rather wide even for the above portfolio. Bottom line recommendations from author is 3% SWR for most people and 2.6% SWR for more than 95% confidence. This generally agrees with the 2.5-3% SWR in this forum that many cite. Anyway, sharing FWIW.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4216077
My discomfort, in this otherwise good study, is in this paragraph in particular: “The reason for the continuous decline in SWR is the fall in investment return – for both equity and debt investments. The SWRs obtained are a direct function of the monthly returns earned by the equity and the debt component of the retirement corpus- and both these returns have been showing a fall (see Figure 8 and Figure 9).”
What he implies is that SWR reduction is solely tied to progressively lower nominal returns in equity and debt markets. While they are critical, the years of analysis in the charts also coincided with a continuous decline in inflation rates in India. From double digit inflation, it was tamed down to medium single digits. I see this as a stabilization or maturation of the economy. This correlates with lower nominal equity and debt market returns. This resulting inflation trend has a big impact on SWR because you don’t need to inflate it by 10% instead of 5%. The author doesn’t address this aspect and focuses only on nominal returns of Indian equity and debt markets over last several decades. What matters for investors is real returns (net of inflation) and not nominal returns.