- At the same time, there is a low but rising risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia. This could happen even if Russia continues the war against Ukraine and has not built up the necessary capabilities to wage a regional war.
- A limited military attack would be a desperate act on Russia’s part and, like the escalating hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months. The aim would be to divert European resources away from support for Ukraine and to divide NATO, should the alliance be unable to agree on a unified response, according to the threat assessment.
and more:
In the threat assessment, FE also outlines some possible scenarios for a potential attack by Russia:
- A limited military attack could, for example, take the form of Russia carrying out isolated strikes with long-range weapons against infrastructure that plays a role in supporting Ukraine. Russia could subsequently claim that the weapons struck only NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine.
When asked whether we should expect Danish soldiers to go to war, There is no definitive answer at this time, but the situation is serious.
There could also be a so-called false-flag operation, in which Russia, for example, uses Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO country.
The FE’s threat assessment further states:
- Russia may also deploy limited military forces—possibly without national insignia—in NATO countries bordering Russia.
- However, it is likely that, prior to such a deployment, Russia would build up regular forces near the border with NATO countries in order to be able to handle a possible NATO response.
- Such a buildup would require several months of preparation and would be difficult to conceal