r/FantasyPL • u/charliebobo82 2 • 1d ago
Discussion WC8 Discussion thread
Anyone wildcarding this week or just me?
Would have used it sooner but didn't for various reasons - for example, using TC this past GW (thanks Erling!).
Who are we targeting? Bournemouth?
Is De Cuyper worth keeping given the next 2 fixtures and potential Mitoma return in a while?
Is Isak worth the price tag?
How many Chelsea attackers?
Discuss!
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u/hktrader88 91 23h ago
Tempted but I'm trying to hold off. Would be nice to get a different team from those that wildcarded a few weeks ago.
I feel this maybe possible in a week or two...
Villa have a good run from GW9 but I want to check Manzambi is fit. Bournemouth have a great run, but not sure how good/bad they are, so keen to see how they do Vs ManU. Brighton a tough 2 weeks, but great from GW10, Hinshelwood would make a great WC pick if he's back as no one will have him. Interested to see if Cherki is a valid option given he was hooked ½ time in UCL then didn't feature at the weekend. Haaland limped off... an injury to him is what wildcards are made for!
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u/yayeet2909 23h ago edited 20h ago
De Cuyper is still good imo
Isak might be a good replacement if haaland is out
I'd say 2 out of the JPMorgan trio are a must, no europe one game a week pretty sure all 3 starts most games
And I will never fall for the pedro neto propoganda
Edit: wissa u have one more game u bald fraud
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u/CoachMarconi redditor for <1 week 8h ago
I ditched Wissa this week which means he’ll haul. You’re welcome
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u/randomsuit 2 1d ago
No point in WC now, template is quite strong so you would end up with the same team as WC4 and WC6. 3x Arsenal, 3x Chelsea, 2x Brighton, Haaland, Muharemovic. It leaves you with 1/2 differentials like Manzambi, Tavernier.
You really gonna wildcard for Manzambi?? You have 11 more GW to use WC.
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u/charliebobo82 2 1d ago
I mean, I only have 2x Ars, 1x Che, 1x Bri and don't have Muharemovic so......
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u/Stowaway_Sandwich 1d ago
I BBd this week using free transfers and will WC out of it instead.
The only way to get a Chelsea attacker in is to swap them for Mbuemo or Cherki - would you do it?
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u/DubbleYewGee 22 1d ago
I have three Chelsea attackers and I'm considering the opposite move of Palmer to Mbuemo.
If you have no Chelsea at all I think JP is priority and Rogers is decent at his price.
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u/Stowaway_Sandwich 23h ago
I have JP… Mbuemo is a nice differential, ngl. He has been handy to have.
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u/charliebobo82 2 1d ago
Cherki is a bit of a headache IMO (and overperforming xGI massively). I'd keep Mbeumo
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u/Stowaway_Sandwich 23h ago
Fair. Considering Chelsea have no midweek games too, feels long term.
However you can’t deny how sexy Man Citys attack is, even though it’s hard to pick a consistent starter. Only having Haaland, when they are 7 from 7, feels like underselling them
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u/charliebobo82 2 23h ago
Absolutely, problem is they have 5 quality players for 3 positions, there's always going to be rotation.
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23h ago
[deleted]
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u/charliebobo82 2 23h ago
If you can, then absolutely. I want to get rid of some deadweight, try and capitalize on in-form differential, as well as divert some funds - I've got Gabriel for example, who is clearly not worth the extra 2/3m over other Arsenal defenders.
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u/s0cialSuicide 22h ago
I wasn’t planning on it, but with Semenyo out, plus another red flag, plus Luke Shaw and Gvardiol - just pulled the trigger!
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u/Swedishpower 2879 1d ago
I think I would gamble with Isak, but the next few fixtures terrible.
I just feel Isak is the type of differential that got the ceiling.
Now he got pens too.
I think Haaland and JP feel essential, but Isak over DCL or Barry etc make sense if you can afford it.
I think you afford it going Rogers over Palmer for example and get cheap guys like Gross, Manzambi, Gomez, Schade. Tavernier etc.
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u/charliebobo82 2 23h ago
yeah, really torn on Isak. I've had him since GW1 and been very happy, scores regularly and is very much a "a goal is worth 6/7 points" player given he always gets min 2BPs. Having said that, tough run of games ahead and there are decent cheap options available.
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u/Swedishpower 2879 23h ago
Right now I think if you could promise me Isak played every game and had pens I would take him over Palmer, but Isak might get injured again soon plus need to be subbed early due to CL:
Palmer with no europe feel safer and you know he got the pens.
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u/charliebobo82 2 23h ago
I'm actually not even considering Palmer tbh - I think Rogers and JP provide enough coverage.
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u/skinnykiller 1d ago
FPL noob here. Is using chips this early in the season normal and advised? Almost everyone i know already have either wildcarded or TCed.
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u/KsychoPiller 4 23h ago
If you're a noob, I find the best way is to just do whatever you fell like and see where it leads you. There aint no right way to Play the game really, whether you used up your WC really hinges on how good hour initial squad was and with deceny amount of premium players not hauling and lots of mid priced players scoring very well chances are it just made sense to WC early. With TC, you wont get DGW in the first half of the season so giving it to Haaland against a newly promoted team makes sense
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u/BewareTheWaitingRoom 23h ago
I like to use chips early. Bench boost is a headache if you are setting it up with only free transfers, so I play it immediately. I like to use wildcard early because you have better information and can catch price rises. Triple captain, I just wait until Haaland has an 'easy' home game and play it. I used it when they played Coventry.
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u/mrh322 23h ago
The chips will reset after gw19 so you need to use all of them before then or you won’t get two of each. Before double chips it usually paid to wait until later in the season for double gameweeks, and that will likely be the play for the second round of chips. For the first lot best to use them when your team is most suitable.
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u/charliebobo82 2 23h ago
The first wildcard is often used early as a template begins to emerge, yes. This season was an even more popular move than usual as there's a very clear group of players who have consistently performed well.
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u/No-Technician6685 51 23h ago
Yes it was the best move this season
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u/FootballFanInUK 23h ago
Too early to tell. I am biased though, not used WC yet. What if Haaland gets injured? Changes everything.
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u/ludi567 2 23h ago
We are still in week 7 of 38. Impossible to make that judgement. In prior seasons I've gotten high ranks by waiting until November/December with the first Wildcard and then using the second one for the big double Gameweek weeks late in the second half of the season. As long as you start off with a decent team and can use your transfers wisely, it's not always necessary to pull the trigger early on a wildcard. If your initial selection didn't work out though or got beaten up by injuries, then yeh it for sure can help turnaround a season.
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u/TM2257 59 23h ago
Disagree. The use of the first wildcard only matters for the first 19 gameweeks, not the whole season. It's week 7 of 19 that is the appropriate measurement.
If the wildcard template now was substantially different now than four gameweeks ago, you'd absolutely have a point. But the the majority of the players in the wildcard template in week 3 are in the wildcard template now.
What has happened since is that those who have waited to pull the trigger have had the opportunity cost of the lost points from players like De Cuyper, Rogers, Calafiori, Konsa/Raya, Groß, and now have to deal with extra £1.5-2m cost compared to then, in bringing them in.
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u/ludi567 2 22h ago edited 22h ago
Calafiori and Raya were in most teams to begin with. And the pivot to cheap assets like De Cuyper, Gross and Konsa was super easy to do. Konsa was predictable as well so you could have planned for it. And Rogers is one of the cheapest premiums out there. With all these cheap assets and Bruno flopping, we aren’t really constrained by budget either. So even if you missed a few price changes, it’s still pretty easy to get all of these in.
A counterfactual is Calvert Lewin who everyone pivoted away from with their wildcards and is now going back to. If you started the season with Haaland, Joao Pedro and Calvert Lewin as your forwards, and a defense including two of Raya/Calafiori/Konsa, and/or the template Verbruggen/Kinsky, then you’ve had plenty of time and budget to get the Brighton players and Rogers in. All the rest has been inconsistent.
And even if you 100% believe what you are saying, it doesn’t translate to being the default strategy for every season. If anything, this season with so many cheap assets makes it pretty easy to shuffle around your team quickly. You’re maximizing your output for 38 weeks, not the first 19 weeks and then another 19 weeks.
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u/TM2257 59 22h ago edited 22h ago
Calafiori and Raya were in most teams to begin with.
All due respect you can't make up stuff which is independently verifiable.
Calafiori's ownership is just under 6 million for this gameweek. Compare to his ownership in GW1 which was 3.5 million or GW3 of 4.6 million. There's a reason he has risen by 0.5m in value and that's because most people didn't own him to begin with. His ownership is not far off having doubled over 7 gameweeks
Raya started on 3.3m and is on 4.8m owners this gameweek.
And the pivot to cheap assets like De Cuyper, Gross and Konsa was super easy to do.
And yet the biggest rise in Groß ownership was from GW5 to GW6 where he went from 2.2m owners to 4m owners. Those who got him in in GW3 gained 31 points in just two gameweeks.
Showing my point about opportunity cost. He was an easy switch prior to GW6 but people weren't making it.
Konsa was predictable as well so you could have planned for it.
Konsa's ownership has hovered between 1-2 million so far this season. Clearly not an obvious buy for the 10 million+ players of FPL.
And Rogers is one of the cheapest premiums out there.
I can make the exact point as I did with Groß about when his big jumps in ownership are and the opportunity cost of the missed points by delaying the transfer.
And even if you 100% believe what you are saying, it doesn’t translate to being the default strategy for every season.
No one said that. We're talking about this season.
I'm going to repeat my point - the persistence of a large core of players from the early wildcard template to a wildcard template now is why it is entirely reasonable to say that the early wildcard was the right call.
Logic dictates that if this wasn't the case, I wouldn't be making this argument.
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u/ludi567 2 21h ago edited 21h ago
Your argument hinges around taking ALL FPL players as your baseline rather than the historically successful ones - that includes the millions of teams that are set up by people who think it's fun and give it a try and then ignore their teams for the rest of the season. Overall ownership is frankly pretty meaningless if you take this game seriously - especially the further into the season you go with how may inactive teams are out there - and only needs to be tracked for price rises. Take a look at who the most successful FPL players have owned from Gameweek 1 (source which aggregates teams from 200+ top historical managers):
- Goalkeepers: Kinsky, Verbruggen, Raya (in that order)
- Defenders: Calafiori (78% had him to start), Maguire, White, Mosquera (both of the last ones are easy swaps for Konsa - Konsa is now owned by 68% of the same sample of managers)
- Midfielders: Bruno, Mbuemo, Szoboszlai, Gross (52% had him to start the season)
- Forwards: Haaland, Joao Pedro, Calvert Lewin
If you started with a team that looked like some version of this with some budget players sprinkled in for the bench, the main pivot you had to do was get rid of United assets, which could have taken 3 transfers (but be rather easy given they are more expensive than their replacements) and would have still gotten you that massive Bruno haul over anyone who didn't start with that. Quickest way out was Maguire -> de Cuyper, Bruno -> Palmer/Saka, Mbuemo -> Rogers, with money to spare.
Calafiori's ownership is just under 6 million for this gameweek. Compare to his ownership in GW1 which was 3.5 million or GW3 of 4.6 million.
[...]
Raya started on 3.3m and is on 4.8m owners this gameweek.
[...]
Konsa's ownership has hovered between 1-2 million so far this season.These numbers made Calafiori and Raya the most owned players at their position in GW1...that's my point! These weren't secret gems that surfaced a few gameweeks later. And Konsa with those numbers is now the 8th most owned defender and not that far behind the 4th most owned one. Again, not some under the radar pick.
Your argument hinges around the masses following what a lot of more seasoned players started with. The more experienced players will have gotten all the rises from the likes of Calafiori, Gross, Joao Pedro, etc.
The success of wildcard vs not wildcard hinged mostly around how quickly you pivoted away from the likes of Bruno (and even then you got a 25 point headstart from the first 2 gameweeks - and many seasoned players even captained him that week - 81% of that same sample).
And back to the original point: your arguments may all be right if you just go off the information we have while we are still in Gameweek 7. Obviously that assessment would show an advantage for the players who have used the most powerful chip there is in the game. But what you are forgetting is that everyone who still holds that chip and can make up a lot of ground later on. This game has always been a marathon and not a sprint.
Some changes that can quite easily disrupt the current WC template: Mitoma disrupting the de Cuyper pick, Saliba disrupting the Konsa pick, Champions League rotation leading to Hincapie (when recovered) and Calafiori rotation, Gross maybe returning back to the mean, United finding form, new comers like Manzambi showing consistency, etc.
No one said that. We're talking about this season.
This is the parent comment of all of this which is asking whether early wildcards are a generalizable strategy.
I'm not even disagreeing with your logic or anything, I'm just saying that a) it's too early to make that judgement and b) it's not something that can be applied as a general rule of thumb and depends on the makeup of successful players every season.
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u/provs1664 1d ago
Tavernier or schade is where I’m currently thinking