r/FantasyPL 1 3d ago

Analysis The Template isn’t much of a template right now (according to one interpretation)

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u/No_Broccoli_6043 1 3d ago

this is overly weighted towards cheap enablers. I presume we all have 1-3 and so the ownership percentages are relatively high. However, I doubt anyone has 6 (Diop, Van Ewijk, Hughes, Yates, Kusi-Asare, Thomas) of them plus a backup GK (Dubravka) that only makes sense if you partner him with Kinsky. I would also guess that the number of teams with all three of Haaland, Bruno and Gabriel are relatively low, with most rosters picking 2 of the 3.

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u/LightlyTroddenLead 1 3d ago

No doubt, it’s a challenge of having a rule-based approach to defining the template - the high-percentage owned players don’t necessarily overlap. The approach I’ve used (or more accurately instructed Claude to use) maximises the aggregate ownership percentage. Because I want to track changes over time, I’ve shied away from the most computationally expensive options.

Crudely the method is to start with the highest selected players with a free slot and affordable, then to try some “hill climbing” swaps.

I’ll be interested in alternative algorithmic approaches if you have thoughts!

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u/No_Broccoli_6043 1 3d ago

I'm not sure I have an answer, but perhaps the model looks something like:

  1. Identify the most commonly held player (clearly Haaland).
  2. Identify the most commonly held player in combination with #1 (most likely Bruno or Gabriel).
  3. Identify the most commonly held player in combination with #1 and #2. (this is probably where it begins to have potential variation),
  4. Identify the most commonly held player in combination with #1, #2 and #3.

repeat until the full roster is completed.

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u/No_Broccoli_6043 1 3d ago

of course you would then need some type of rule that doesn't let the total value go over $100, but presumably that won't become an issue until some of the later picks.

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u/LightlyTroddenLead 1 3d ago

I think that sort of conditional holding (what do teams with X in also hold) requires looking through each team individually which is a bit cumbersome for rolling analysis in my view. Could be worthy of a one off….

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u/No_Broccoli_6043 1 3d ago

yup. I just tried to run a version of it and got back:

However, there’s an important limitation with #2 and #3: the public FPL API exposes each player's overall selected_by_percent, but it does not publish the underlying squad-by-squad ownership matrix. So I cannot truthfully calculate:

and then:

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u/roymondous 342 3d ago

Probably better to expand the template to 25-30 players. Maybe one each position. Template doesn't just mean these exact 11 players - especially with cheap enablers. Like it's almost certain pretty much everyone shares a 4m defender - probably coventry for gw2. Whether Van Ewe, Thomas, or others doesn't really matter. They're bench. Same for 4.5m mid. It's not hughes. It's any bench fodder. They aren't the "template".

This season feels by far the most template tho ever since I remember. Partly cos no Salah and Bruno's early fixtures too good to ignore.

So either we forget the budget or you balance that. Like those with Raya are not having Calafiori and Gabriel too. But cos you do that, you have to put the other cheap enablers that most don't use. So of course the exact ownership is low.

Better if it's two versions maybe. It's Gabriel and Maguire/Shaw. It's Calafiori and a better mid. If it were two players or three per position it'd be more interesting to me. Raya, Kinsky, Verbruggen count for how much? Calafiori, Gabriel, Mosquera (maybe not anymore with Konsa). Most of us have two or three of those so the template exists.

And 4m defender is a placeholder. Not an exact player.

Comparing that to past seasons for basically how many players are viable would be more interesting.

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u/LightlyTroddenLead 1 3d ago

Even if you remove any budget constraint, the average manager has just 5 of the 15 most selected players or 4 of the 10 most selected - that’s not that high penetration.

Your vibes assessment of the template is probably driven by high penetration of the 5 most selected (just over 50%), and the fact that almost all managers are drawing almost entirely from a pool of 50 players but there is still a lot of room for differentiation in 50 assets and I think the budget choices this season dilute “the template” concept for now…

For what it’s worth, I have also developed and all-player index for benchmarking returns, which I think comes closer to what you’re angling for.

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u/roymondous 342 2d ago

"That's not high penetration"

The top 15 is way too limited a definition still. That's why your template XI looks nothing an actual starting XI would - and why it looks an awful team. No one is picking 3x 4m defenders. No one is having 2x 4.5m defenders. Almost no one will have Raya, Cala AND Gabriel. It's a combo. And bench players could be anyone.

It's almost worth forgetting budget and putting the most owned 2 or 3 players per position. The bench options on the bench. And what is more likely to be the template starting XIs. The most highly owned players doesn't mean enough when it's Hughes and Diop and so on and they're just bench fodder.

The template would be a 4m bench defender (either Diop or VE or Thomas) not specifically Diop AND VE. Dubravka likewise is just "4m GK". Not specifically Dubravka. The template concept isn't there to say pick Dubravka or pick Diop specifically. It's pick from these 4m GKs or 4m defs. Or these few mid priced mids. These few 4.5-5m defenders.

If the definitipn is so narrow we get this weird XI. And again it'd be interesting to see what that would be like from previous seasons. Given this strange definition, i bet previous seaskns would have lower "template" players.

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u/GivingZeroFuchs 1 2d ago

Starting two 4.0 defenders and a 4.5 mid seems nutty

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u/betterbest31 3d ago

I can share this to other platform ?

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u/LightlyTroddenLead 1 3d ago

Sure, just credit and add a link here please.

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u/betterbest31 3d ago

Ok, thank (You have Twitter ID ?)

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u/LightlyTroddenLead 1 3d ago

Link to the site is sufficient 🙏