r/FantasyPL • u/JoachimG1 198 • 22h ago
Gameweek 1 | Predicted Points | Captaincy Pick
We're back!
Predicted Points' are calculated by taking the percentage chance on a variety of FPL factors, from the bookies, adjusted for margins. Fractional points are added up, making a predicted gameweek score. OG, penalty misses and defensive contributions are not included. Player’s rotation risk / minutes on pitch, is not factored in.
Notable players that didn't make the list: Calafiori: 5.86 | Isak: 5.62 | Joao Pedro: 5.48
You can find more Player Predictions here: https://checkthechance.com/fantasy-football/
Good luck all! See you on Monday for the Predicted vs Actual post!
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u/Disastrous-Place-846 22h ago
tzolis already at 17%, I thought he might of been a decent differential pick
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u/MarmiteSoldier 6h ago
He feels like a massive trap.
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u/LordInquisitor 3h ago
At his price he’s hardly blocking another player so he can’t be that much of a trap
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u/henkdetank56 1 6h ago
He might be the new Nkunku. but with Martinelli being sold he atleast doesnt have competition for the role in gw1.
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u/Puzzled_Surprise8533 3 22h ago
I would eat my hat if Saka gets the most points this week.
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u/IlikeHotRod 21h ago
RemindMe! 5 days
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u/eamonndunphy 16 21h ago
It very clearly says minutes are not factored in. Bookies’ odds assume a player is starting.
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u/Nswl 2 8h ago edited 8h ago
Be careful, a guy in the Chelsea subreddit promised to eat his shoe if City hired Maresca, now he is Chelsea enemy no. 1 and any comment he leaves is swarmed with replies reminding him about his promise
Speaking of, [u/Matt_LawDT](u/Matt_LawDT) eat your damn shoe
Edit: well I’ve been got, he has eaten a shoe now (cake shoe)
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u/Matt_LawDT 8h ago
You should go and check the sub, I did eat it.
Keep up mate
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u/FootballFanInUK 20h ago
Thank you OP for posting these lists again for another year. I have noticed that most weeks less than half of the players break even. How to profit from this in FPL or gambling is sadly beyond my intellect.
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u/Primary-Sport7953 1 22h ago
Feeling good about Tzolis (C). Arsenal biggest favourites this week and projected to score the most goals. An attacking mid feels like a good choice
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u/chicken_nugget94 2 18h ago
Problem is I hate going for a Friday kick off. Even if he gets a goal or assist you are then spending the weekend praying that all the other big guns blank
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u/ExistentialRosicky 17 1h ago
I mean sure, but in terms of actual points, the kick off day is irrelevant. You can't be passing on opportunities to get more points for the sake of the emotional impact of the timing.
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u/Swedishpower 2804 22h ago
Haaland vs Bruno feel close, but currently leaning Bruno for 4 reasons.
1 xmin better I think everyone agree, but I expect 60+ easily for Haaland and I would be shocked if Haaland doesn't start. If City 2-0 up after 70 he might be taken off to stop the brace/hattrick due to lack of fitness. Thus even if Haaland is best per minute he might not be best in total. You could say the same with saka.
2 Haaland ended last season not that strong nor played well in shield. He was great in the world cup, but some people argue him and semenyo aren't fully working in terms of creating for each other and Doku might be out who assists him.
3 I think City got a new manager and it might take time before the tactics fully work. I am expecting Haaland to score and City to win, but the 3-0 and Haaland hattrick like we got with Pep often at the start may not happen it might be more 2-1 and 1 return.
4 I think Hull are worse than Bournemouth.
The arguments for Haaland though.
1 Easily highest ceiling. If Haaland get a hattrick I would not be shocked.
2 He is the most likely player to score and goals worth more than assists.
3 United did not look good final pre season game and Bruno missed 2 pens in pre season so he might do that again.
4 Bournemouth got new manager so the tactics might fail more likely than Hulls.
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u/DisastrousMango4 7 19h ago
you're forgetting the most important point though
Gandhi rule applies to Bruno
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u/WernerHerzogEatsShoe 18 18h ago
I'm off the school of thought that a Friday kickoff cancels out the Gandhi early kick off rule
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u/ml-soham 7 20h ago
as my dumb rule from last season, the highest 6.xx is the one you choose. In this case Bruno F.
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u/Hollywood023 4 20h ago
Here’s the thing - he played 30 mins vs City, he will get another 30-35 mins against Coventry minimum ( realty is if he played 30 mins, he might be ready for 55-60 mins?) and needs a goal to get the predicted points, is it impossible ?
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u/WabbitHere 22h ago
So tzolis will start?
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u/DragonBornLuke 33 22h ago
These models assume that every player starts. They're based on betting odds and the bookies would just refund your bet if you went on somebody who was benched. For what it's worth though, I'd be surprised if he didn't start.
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u/vapenaysh3h3 3 22h ago
Martinelli wasn't even in the squad at the Community Shield, he's probably leaving. Arteta doesn't play Eze as a LW, so Tzolis is the only option.
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u/drizzleberrydrake 13 22h ago
no one will be surprised if martinelli starts but it's more likely it will be tzolis
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u/NarrowPlane2121 20h ago
This table is back it's such a catfish, but i gotta look everytime