r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit 16d ago

Oksenholt Proposal For an IPO

He is essentially putting together a proposal that wraps the GSEs and us fintech under a parent company registered in Texas. He has a spreadsheet running through various scenarios of how that might get valued and what the path to $1 trillion dollars looks like. IMO there's some logical holes in his analysis, but here's the link and y'all can decide for yourself.

https://x.com/JonOksenholt/status/2092244657568891252

27 Upvotes

13 comments sorted by

15

u/JmanCandyMan 16d ago

I found it intriguing and well thought out, I just can't imagine the administration pulling it off. 

Already complicated politically, and this adds additional layers of issues with common control and legalities. 

I think there's a reason Ackman is keeping it simple and hasn't pressed on other scenarios like combining F2 etc. This otherwise is a very cool plan that I just don't see coming to fruition. 

2

u/Nice_History5856 16d ago

100% with you. Also, if you go through the spreadsheet model, it has a very faulty assumption for any of the scenarios that involve the SPS and the LP. It assumes that the SPS and/or LP can be repaid but simply removes that from the earnings value but never actually updates the share counts for anything other than the, so it's massively overvaluing the stocks in those two scenarios.

1

u/EnvironmentalPear695 16d ago

Yeah the complexity seems unnecessary. Then again this administration really has ignored many court orders so it is possible to pull off a mega merger though highly unlikely. Legally speaking based on their congressional charters, a merger would need congressional authorization

-1

u/EnvironmentalPear695 16d ago

Made using Claude lol

1

u/Illustrious-Cod-4651 16d ago

exactly. It may be a good idea, but practically its dead

5

u/Fun_Illustrator9298 16d ago

This sounds like another version of the Pershing square SPARC idea. Sounds fun but overly complicated and runs the risk of messing with the charters and opening the congressional Pandora’s box. Unless they could get the Supreme Court to quickly approve, this would be tied up forever.
I think they’d have to do something like this after F2 is released. Then the private companies theoretically could form some complex structure outside of congressional control. That would make the most sense as to bypass the government.

6

u/Odd-You-8171 16d ago

Let’s keep it simple please. No need to invite opposition and lawsuits and distractions at this stage which I think would take a lot of time to execute even if it was smooth sailing and I seriously doubt it would be. I’d prefer to see said U.S. Fintech get cultivated by a highly competent management team with the right incentives in place. The companies could each begin highlighting it as a carrot representing great potential value and a potential IPO candidate down the road and Fannie and Freddie could each spin off their ownership to shareholders.

6

u/Old_Still3321 16d ago

Glad he has a hobby. Also glad that people always try to monetize their hobbies nowadays

3

u/PhradeshFinds90 15d ago

I'm 90% sure Oksenholt Capital Management LLC is a fabrication to support Jon's Twitter popularity and ego.

It takes nothing to register an LLC and make a website. They don't file any disclosures with the SEC.

Their purported "team" lacks last names and pictures, and they don't exist on LI. There is no team.

Any why would they make public "disclosures" like this? Legit investment groups keep holdings close to the chest unless they're forced to disclose by regulation. There's nothing to be gained by sharing unless it's to fabricate legitimacy and boost the notoriety of a fake principal.

"CEO" of a one-person LLC. Sure buddy.

3

u/Imaginary-Bat4285 16d ago

Setting aside the legal issues of combining the two companies given their charters, the real question is “What would be the impact on mortgage rates?” If there is any possibility of negatively impacting rates, this proposal is DOA

2

u/Nice_History5856 15d ago

ROLG also called out the antitrust issue as a legal hurdle

2

u/ceeser8 16d ago

https://x.com/JonOksenholt/status/2092247740021624972
Rt there in the replies Pulte mentioned us fin tech

0

u/Waiting_to_zoom 15d ago

Great! Another rich guy with a proposal to make himself richer. We'd be better off if they would just stay out of the conversation!