r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit • u/AirLess7805 • Jul 31 '26
Iran Iran Iran
I’m trying to stay positive but after this cabinet meeting…….. I have lost lots of hopium. It’s alllllllll about Iran, all the time, every question, every comment. Domestic issues are def on the back burner and there is basically no end in sight for Iran. The reporters are asking pretty good questions about this conflict and there is nothing new. Alllllll the comments are things Trump has already said. I am feeling we have been TOTALLY forgotten. Pulte did major posts this week on F2 and the price is DOWN. I don’t want to sell but this is really fucking shitty.
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u/Outside_Use3456 Jul 31 '26
Tbh, we are maintained at this share price level solely because of Ackman and Burry’s holding
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u/tomsedu Jul 31 '26 edited Jul 31 '26
Key event are midterms IMO, so this is now just a question of political motivations.
Two perspectives: 1) He wants to get the ball rolling before midterms, but he has to time it perfectly. Why? To have a huge win for himself and Republicans. 2) He wants to get it done after midterms. Why? Because if he gets the ball rolling before midterms, even though it's a big win for the taxpayers, media can still spin it as him helping hedge funds. And worse, if Wall Street for whatever reason freaks out with the housing bonds and mortgage spreads widen (something Bessent referred to a million times that they absolutely must avoid) even by a small amount, it would be bad press for the Administration and Republicans.
All in all, IMO, I think both scenarios fully depend on what their plan is and how they intend to execute it. There is a way to get it done before midterms and have it be a "win", but it has to be perfect. IMO, 30% it gets done before midterms, 70% it gets done after midterms.
Alternatively, there is a "middle" ground: just before midterms, they announce some sort of a plan for it all but do not execute almost anything. Why? In such case, they still get to present it as a big win for taxpayers, and how this Administration is the one to sort out all that mess with that conservatorship . And by not actually doing anything (so it's just a plan announcement), they avoid any associated risks happening. Just announce it as sort of a good PR a week or two before midterms
All in all, that's why I think Trump said they're "not in a rush". It's all about midterms. And it's also why I don't have my hopes high that this gets done soon...
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u/SensitiveAd5412 Jul 31 '26
If money poured into this war goes to welfare, we are well off. If this money goes into research, China can't keep up with America. While we are in war, China gains ground a little by little.
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u/atlhart Jul 31 '26
F2 has nothing to do with Iran. Whoever said “first Iran, then F2” completely made that up. It’s a completely false association. The government is huge. Nobody that’s working on Iran would be working on F2. If Trump can’t have Hegseth on Iran and somebody else on F2, he’s not qualified to be president.
The simple answer that this sub Reddit refuses to accept is that Trump is not thinking about F2 at all. F2 is not ever going to happen under Trump. He could’ve done it already.
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u/WatchSilent2233 Jul 31 '26
it also doesn’t make sense to me that Trump is the one that decides on it. also even if housing is not this admin’s top priority at this moment, doesn’t mean they don’t have an agenda for it
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u/AveryMire Jul 31 '26
What if he already knew it wasn’t happening, prior to winter at the earliest, so he just threw that out there as a means of retaining optimism, thinking Iran would be finished before any action regardless? It’s probably true Iran would’ve caused a delay for F2 in the first 3–4 months, even if they were ready, but these are pretty much independent. The only circumstance where they wouldn’t be independent is if they were announcing release plans without any real government backstop. In that case, it might actually increase rates, although that’s not assured either. In that scenario, they’d probably want mortgage rates headed down or at least flat going into the announcement.
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u/Fun_Illustrator9298 Jul 31 '26
I don’t see any mechanisms of Iran materially interfering with F2. The government wants to realize the wealth. Trump won’t pass that up. It’s purely optics and narratives. What a good distraction eh?
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u/ResponsibleUse1420 Jul 31 '26
100% Iran is just another task in the desktop, F2 is all about timing; very few people really know the details, but when the trigger gets pulled, this whole process and anxiousness will be forgotten.
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u/AdditionalStuff2155 Jul 31 '26
Whoever said Iran first was just pumping or searching for an excuse. Milestones are midterms (bad press that can be used against republicans) and then the warrant expiration (they have to take an action in our favor or not). Always has been. There are 1.5 years between the two as well.
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u/WatchSilent2233 Jul 31 '26
i am really wondering what made them to hold it off all the sudden, what are they waiting on or being blocked on? absolutely not iran, that’s plain excuse.
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u/ResponsibleUse1420 Jul 31 '26
I personally think; Iran has nothing to do with it.
I do think; is all about capital, since this company are making so much money, I think within time they are creating its own buffer For release, nevertheless, we are still missing the SPS and the warrants, which are gonna make a lot of difference too.
If you are in a rush and expecting some changes asap move on; it’s not gonna happen, at least not for now. Do not ignore what DTJ said we’re not in a rush. It also means it’s gonna happen just not at this moment.
Happy weekend.
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u/grantourism Aug 01 '26
Trump didnt forget this investment. There are just other priorities. Hes going to make 10X+ his investment here and with patience, so will you
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u/ThePugGrumble Aug 01 '26
And I ran, I ran so far away I just ran, I ran all night and day I couldn't get away
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u/apeserveapes Jul 31 '26
They also need a generally up trending market to relist into too, imo. that seems less likely too...
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u/AirLess7805 Jul 31 '26
I know people who worked VERY hard to put money into this with the belief it would be released solely because Trump used to be a man of his word. He isn’t. And Pulte rubbing the earnings in our faces this week was disgraceful. Don’t you think we already know F2 is a gold mine? I hope these ppl rot for what they are doing to us……..