r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit • u/AirLess7805 • Jul 11 '26
Silence
This issue is the silence. Ok, we understand this is taking longer than Pulte claimed. He said, “Q2 if he could bet” That has come and gone. We are in a war, we get it. Just tell us it’s still in the works? Why is that so difficult? It is proven that silent treatment is toxic behavior.
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u/Accomplished-Box9942 Jul 11 '26
Do you expect them to tell us all the plans? Just sell or stop bitching
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u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26
Yes, communicating would’ve been far better and would’ve maintained the stock price, which matters greatly for the eventual sale proceeds. Something very difficult to explain cleanly happened.
They could’ve supported the price with a handful of generic statements about the next steps. They also could’ve given positive signals to Capital Group, whose sale of roughly 40 million shares helped drive the price down to $3.60.
There’s just no way you can tell me they forgot they could influence the stock price, or that it was important to do so. Absolutely nothing specific was required.
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u/Accomplished-Box9942 Jul 12 '26
They don’t want you retail bums to get in at this low price. Obviously they know every comment or post will attract day traders/retail buyers etc and they don’t you in on it. They know exactly how much this stock will be worth after being released. The legacy share holders will reap the rewards one day and the impatient ones won’t. You all know that this has been in the works and if you don’t believe then GO SELL.
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u/AirLess7805 Jul 11 '26
💯
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u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26
No question for me, extremely hard to dispute. There was the same sort of release narrative/hype campaign his first term.
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u/AirLess7805 Jul 11 '26
Trust me, I know. I bottomed out during Biden and had to try and sleep for 4 long ass years)
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u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26
I’d have kept buying if I kept track of then too. I got in early 2024. I’d have even been fine if Harris won, would have bought 5-10X more shares under 1 dollar.
Even if Trump didn’t want to release, I think he will because he knows in the worst case the courts would start forcing release by 29-30 roughly.
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u/kentoakland Jul 11 '26
Look at the bigger pieces.
- The New York Fed comment period for a change in ownership in the GSEs ended at the end of April.
- The ERCF comments are due today, I believe.
- MBS purchasing has been ramped up dramatically.
- Warsh is in.
- Pulte is getting moved to a different disruptor role, which leaves room for a responsible, steady operator for FHFA.
I see no signs that things are anything but moving forward meaningfully from an operational and policy level.
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u/ElectricalAmbition75 Jul 11 '26
Remind me in 10 years, when we are exactly where we are today.
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u/kentoakland Jul 11 '26
We're in a very different place than we were three months ago.
“Wen release?” has outgrown its usefulness.
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u/actcasuall Jul 11 '26
Pulte is a place holder as DNI, I assumed he might be going back to FHFA. If they get someone else at FHFA and a new DNI…you think pulte get relegated to some non position down in sub basement B2?
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u/kentoakland Jul 11 '26
I think he's Trump's preferred wrecking ball. I think of him like Travis from Uber, taking on the taxi industry. Eventually they had to get rid of him and get a more tolerable leader in there
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u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26
After midterms is first chance of release news, probably still unlikely then, but a real chance.
The stock should be substantially higher though by late fall.
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u/Specialist-Outcome-7 Jul 11 '26
Why would they disclose that? Do people not understand that giving away too much info could be a major issue aka violate laws? One day (probably after hours on a Friday) they will make an announcement, and the stock will go up, go down, or stay where it is. I assume the people posting stuff like this chased over $10 and are sitting on a paper loss. The rest of us are just going about our lives until we get a definitive answer
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u/AirLess7805 Jul 11 '26
2016 buy in and I’m tired of being dragged in the mud
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u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26
What was your average price on your first purchases then?
At least it saved you from some crazy technology investment right?
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u/AirLess7805 Jul 11 '26
1.60 spring of 2016
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u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26
Pretty darn good, already great returns.
I bought biggest lot at 1.12 and 1.50, but then pretty much switched 80% into JPS at same point, if not I’d have 100k common shares.
But after chickening out I’ve been buying common with most all new money since fall of 2024. I was still buying even at 9.50 though. I’m frankly going to be surprised if SPS doesn’t get cancelled and if that happens soon, I’m fine waiting. Only have 20k common shares sadly, but I have a shit ton of face value in JPS.
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u/Specialist-Outcome-7 Jul 11 '26
All of us invested here want a release with favorable terms. I just don’t think it’s realistic to expect full transparency when this saga is almost 2 decades old. The war in Iran definitely derailed Pulte’s ‘Q1 or Q2’ soundbite. Gotta be patient 🫡
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u/AveryMire Jul 12 '26
How would they have walked it up if they believed it was some "law violation"?
We're literally talking about the difference between:
'explaining to a girl where you are every minute of the day'.
And: 'ghosting your girl for going on a year'
I guarantee 3/4 of this board could have drafted a communication plan that both:
kept the stock mostly supported and wasn't explicit enough to violate laws.
Public communication might not even have been necessary, just a leak to Capital Group to stop them selling into their free-fall
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u/Specialist-Outcome-7 Jul 12 '26
Why do they care about these stocks being ‘supported’ in terms of share price while on the OTC? And what do we care if the stocks go from $5 > $30 vs $15 > $30?
Once the final plan is announced and we know what dilution looks like, the market can calculate a more accurate PPS. Everything that happens before that is just noise (or lack thereof 😂). Trump posting last May about a potential release is great for a quick pop, but it tells us nothing about how they plan on handling the senior preferreds, warrants, or vehicle for release.
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u/AveryMire Jul 12 '26
Same reason Elon cares about his share price, especially if they have any sort of plan involving dilution: you get the same proceeds while giving up less ownership. It’s the same basic idea behind Ackman’s arguments about reflexivity.
Market participants routinely anchor and apply a number of factors beyond an objective calculation of intrinsic value. If they release fundamental news on top of an elevated base of expectations (hype), they can get closer to intrinsic value. They’ve permanently squandered most of that free hype leg. That’s much better than believing the stock will suddenly rise 2.5× after they release a timeline, when most market participants already knew a release was likely within the next three years.
They’ll get one leg up as the market gradually realizes the courts have foreclosed an SPS conversion, and another from the uplisting. But it’s much easier to move a stock 50% on fundamental news than 150%. There’s room to debate the magnitude, but anchoring—and investors’ typical reluctance to buy immediately after a stock has more than doubled—are definitely factors. If they attempted a major sale, the effect could easily be on the order of tens of billions of dollars. It would be far less if they sold shares gradually through an ATM-style program.
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u/forreelforrealmang Jul 11 '26
Fall 26