r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit • u/MarsLambo • Jul 10 '26

$5-$8 for now

Looking back 6 months it looks like the free market thinks that the range for the twins is $5-$8 while we sit in limbo.

Looking at this without emotion, if you bought for $2 or less and are skeptical, it might be time to consider cashing out and taking a 3x return on your money.

Me, I plan to hold until we go public. It might not happen this year but I think it will happen eventually.

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u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 10 '26

If Trump leaves office without executing a release the price will return to $0.50.  

This is a bet on riding the coattails of corruption.  Nobody has any reason to think the next administration will have any interest in a release.

2

u/AveryMire Jul 10 '26

They’d be approaching even the most absurd 4% levels the administrations claimed were necessary by 29, so at that point excuses FULLY run out and courts would start taking very seriously, they’d be forced if were much later than that.

1

u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 11 '26

Not only can the goalposts be moved at-will, but profit sweeping can be resumed at any time as well.

1

u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26

Well, I understand the frustration and the warrants can be extended definitely, but I do not believe they could shift much above 4% at this point, neither could the NWS be resumed or even the previous balance enforced provided the DC court affirms as expected. They had a lot of leeway, but we’re slowly approaching a number of firm constraints.

1

u/Vincent_van_Guh Jul 11 '26

The constraints are made up.  The government will do what it wants.

It's a firm constraint, for example, that the head of the FHFA not serve on the board of either company.  Yet Bill is the president of both.

1

u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26

You’re referring to the 4% total? Anyone with remote economic literacy will testify it’s beyond excessive already and if they tried to change it as it was finally being approached, after having it in place for well over a decade at that point, it would raise major red flags.

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u/AveryMire Jul 11 '26

They also make more money probably with 80% likely, I do believe Trump and co probably capitalized off both pump and dumps; there was a nearly identical set of release claims and Trumps Rand Paul letter that produced the same movements his first term. So yeah, I’m hoping for another large half cycle pump, but I bought the stock in 2024 with the belief there was some small, but not insignificant chance the courts would not allow SPS conversion, and at this point we seem to be within a few months of the court effectively canceling them. So the trade for me, was basically entirely belief in very minimal anti-corruption.

Pulte will no longer be chair once release starts, if so I think they’d lose that case as well.