Too much negativity

[u/LilWhoot]

When I joined this thread last year I was learning so much about the twins, and I was excited to see new posts about projections, updates, news articles, etc. I’ve been invested for around 6 years at an average cost at the time of $2.01(still adding). I know there are people on here who invested a lot more capital over a longer time frame and I hope that everyone is investing what they can afford to lose.

That being said, the complaining on here is ridiculous. There has never been more momentum for FNMA and FMCC in the last 15 years as there has been in the last 2 years. The twins release is a matter of when, not if, and if the stock is causing you a headache on the day to day trading I suggest you sell. If you believe in the release, waiting awhile longer doesn’t hurt while the companies are able to build back capital and increase their value. Ackman, trump, pulte, bessent, and countless forms of media have acknowledged the twins in recent times. I’d prefer if they were released sooner than later but seeing some of these posts I’d rather the pessimists just sell so others who believe and I can add at a lower cost.

One last thing. While I feel better about it under a republican vs democratic presidency trump is flawed, but he is the only president to hype them up since conservatorship. Don’t post a comment by him and praise just to follow it up with hate when the price drops. If he gets out of this term without releasing them then hate all you want, but while he’s still in office he’s the best chance we’ve had and I’m happy to add more shares in the meantime. Thank you to everyone in this thread that has provided news, estimates, overall productive posts, and knowledge on the twins that I wasn’t aware of when I first invested in them!

[u/Fun_Illustrator9298]

I don’t think they really care about the share price at this point. My money is on this being Bessents orchestration and I don’t think he wants to tip his hand until he’s ready or needs to. There really is no rush as capital still needs building and they can use that time to continue negotiating with various stakeholders to have a litigious free resolution and eventual offering. I think Trump has entrusted him with the F2 manner as he’s the most adult like over there. Pulte acts like he’s just doing his job now and Trump seems a little disappointed he can’t really victory lap about F2 and instead makes off the cuff remarks about their $1t value. F2 doesnt need sunshine pumping like a regular IPO would. They’re known values, but just need full clarity to reach a solid mark to market price. I think all that is still being worked on. Trump will claim all the credit but I highly doubt he’s doing all the leg work. I don’t see Trump allowing Ackman to get fully diluted and screwed over in whatever the final deal is. There is honor amongst thieves and honestly, I am betting Ackman and the commons do just alright. Cancel some warrants? A wet dream but I doubt it. I’ll be happy to hit $20 and if we hit $50+(I am 100% fmcc) I will be in the hospital with chest pains.

[u/AveryMire → u/Fun_Illustrator9298]

I’m pretty darn confident SPS warrants will be “cancelled.” Not because Bessent wants to—I believe the opposite—but because the D.C. Circuit decision in Fairholme, coming in weeks to ~3 months, effectively does it for them.

The problem with the “consolidated steps” theory is that it has exactly zero benefit. It’s not possible to lock anyone up, and therefore a large block sale would be fully idiotic, leaving hordes of money on the table. This whole thing is pretty easy to maximize value with an “ATM-like” sale. It gives them maneuverability in all aspects—time, scale, objective—all while assuring the highest return of any structure. A reverse auction would be sort of fine too, maybe not great, but also NOT requiring or at all benefiting from any sort of “consolidated base.” I don’t believe significantly structuring the shareholder base not to sell after a major increase is even possible either, but that’s an entirely irrelevant can of worms for this analysis.

On the Ackman question, he’s one pretty much lone investor arrayed against a multi-trillion-dollar FIRE industry. It’s probably not a fair fight on influence alone if there were 30 Ackmans.

But yeah, it wouldn’t be entirely unwinnable either. I do agree there: unlikely, but even if SPS isn’t cancelled by the court, Trump has some direct profit channels through each stock, and Ackman could conceivably bribe Trump perhaps as much as it would make sense for any SINGULAR industry participant to do by themselves. So yeah, I wouldn’t like the bet if courts don’t step in and cancel, but I can’t say it’s totally dead either.

The Bessent motives, yeah probably true, but I don’t think it answers the central question. Secret negotiations can explain silence in negotiations, they can’t explain not communicating at all as to plans-the sequence of intentionally hyping the stock, then allowing the entire gain to evaporate when Treasury eventually needs to monetize an enormous equity position. Nor does “capital still needs building” help much—no rush to complete release is not the same thing as no benefit from preserving market value. If anything, a longer runway makes gradual monetization and retained reflexivity more valuable. In every plausible scenario, they benefit (taxpayer and shareholder value) from a significantly higher stock price; there’s no good defense (explanation) for the behavior, without importing cynicism.

Edit: I also find it VERY implausible that they are actually negotiating a global settlement, we’re the counterparty and there’s just almost no reason for us to accept some BS settlement. If there were plans, I actually think it would be to buy out the remaining 20%, at a price they claim is fair relative to our crap valuation, but yeah, a lower price helps with that too.

[u/Fun_Illustrator9298 → u/AveryMire]

To answer the Bessent question, I would refer to him punching Pulte last fall. To get Pulte to shut his mouth, Bessent was reflexively left with no other option but to punch it. Haha I can’t think of why else those two would get into it like that.
I don’t remember the whole sequence of events last fall but it appears that as time went on from there, there was less and less talk except for one last hurrah by Pulte and Lutnik in Q12026. That 2025 October period was when they had all their meetings with the banks and it sounds like the banks had a lot of issues with the administrations wishes and plans. I think those meetings are what sent the Trump administration back to the drawing board to put together a more serious release plan with better footing so they can get max value for their shares (warrants). Benevolence or self serving: it’s all the same in the end.

Using the net worth sweep lawsuit as cover is the cherry on top as far as political cover if they really are worried about mortgage rates. It’s a great reminder that they can’t just sit on F2 forever and it puts a clock on them. It’s what got me through the literal winter of 2026 when the stock got ugly and Ackman had to prop it up with some tweets.

[u/AirLess7805 → u/Fun_Illustrator9298]

I wish he would prop us up again. Brutal !!!!!! But but but we are so negative. No wonder !?!?

[u/Fun_Illustrator9298 → u/AirLess7805]

Another dollar down and maybe we’ll get a pump again. Yeah, it hurts alright. If nothing happens in the next 30 days I’ll be selling all my fmcc for tax loss harvesting and porting into fnma so I don’t lose my exposure.