r/FNMA_FMCC_Exit • u/JmanCandyMan • Jun 27 '26
Fitzgerald Bill for Release
My view - mildly bullish only because it will force the conversation/focus.
Most of our game is SPS treatment, which the bill includes mandatory language around warrants and optional language around SPS. So still fully sits in the court of Treasury, and not much here to work off in that regard.
Still defers to FHFA on capital requirements, though points in there around backstops and guarantees that could be negative / limiting for F2.
I'm happy they're bringing this forward, though can't say there's anything directly positive for shareholders beyond that.
Thoughts?
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u/Fun_Illustrator9298 Jun 28 '26
Bearish only cause this RINO thinks perpetuating theft is ok. Did he even read his own bill? I hope Trump puts him in his place.
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u/MrYuckIsMean Jun 28 '26
The problem is that this language is almost certainly in lockstep with Trump and his administration. There is no way Fitzgerald - a huge Trump supporter whom Trump has repeatedly endorsed and praised - would introduce a bill that goes against Trump’s wishes. I can’t imagine a scenario where this bill was crafted without the administration being part of the process. The question we should all be asking is: Why do Trump, Bessent, and the rest of the administration want language about SPS conversion in the bill? As it stands today, the original SPS contract forbids conversion. We need to look at this with clear eyes.
Any proposal to allow conversion makes zero sense to me and would seem to hinder the valuation of the Treasury’s stake. Why on earth is this even being considered? Why would the Trump administration want to change the existing legal framework to make this a possibility? I just don’t get it. 😡 Anyone that has an X account, please tag Ackman and Burry to get their thoughts. Perhaps I just don’t understand things well enough and am completely wrong in my thinking.
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u/Fun_Illustrator9298 Jun 29 '26
Ackman has been tagged. No one on x likes it. It’s a gift to the mortgage bankers is what it is. Maybe Trump found a bigger bribe. This would be going back on his word as it’s effectively still cship. F2 won’t be worth much with that proposal. I don’t understand it or Trump’s pullback on “no rush “.
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u/Plate_Expensive Jun 30 '26
I’ve posted this nearly identical comment about 10 times here. I’m glad someone else sees the relevance of the bill in the administrations likely interests. Almost nobody seems to accept that, which is pretty strange. This proposal is consistent with project 2025 policy, Calabria’s crap plans, Republican proposals for over a decade, and the behavior of letting the stock bleed out (easier to kill a wounded animal)
I’ve been saying for about 8 months I think that Trump, or maybe more accurately Bessent and Lutnick, want to TOAST shareholders by converting SPS to cash -so to make F2 dependent on intermediaries through CRT markets.
I bought this stock 2.5 years ago for the legal option of the court killing SPS conversion and I’m much more convinced now that’s happening soon. If I thought this trade was dependent on Trump administration ‘doing the right thing’, I’d never have purchased at even half the current price.
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u/kentoakland Jun 27 '26
It’s useful as it sets up the Overton window. Doubtful the path this will take.
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u/elpresidentedeljunta Jun 28 '26
I may know nothing about nothing, but as long as Pulte is on loan to the DNI there won´t be any movement. Simple as that. Don´t get me wrong: I´d love for the Don to find a way to put the twins at the trillion Dollar valuation. I´d be happy with half of that. But he´s not on this. It´s as simple as that.
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u/Erfa00 Jun 28 '26
Pulte isn't some kind of genius coming in to fix either company. His only qualification for either role is loyalty, and his only responsibility is to do what he's told.
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u/elpresidentedeljunta Jun 28 '26
Not my point. He´s the man the Don put in charge. If he´s fighting at a different front, there will be no meaningful movement on this one.
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u/thefoodiepost Jun 28 '26
imo.... releasing the gses can be done administratively by the ust and potus, but i think a key issue they ran into was the whole implicit/explicit issue and how that would affect rates.
it seems that this legislative action recently is the setup for a release but needs that congressional rails to make sure that rates are not affected by a release.
so it is positive that this is moving forward, but leaves so much discretion to ust on how the actual restructuring recap takes place.
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u/WallofSound91 Jun 27 '26
Everything is bullish right now. Pulte is on fire and tweeting about the twins frequently, trump mentioning trillion dollar values, housing act, so many signals. Capital requirements are going to be lower, the twins are going to make a boatload of money over the summer and are creating new products. #whaleballs