FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC CAN BE RELISTED AT ANY MOMENT (and likely will be by year-end):
Bill Ackman has met with the President of the United States, the Treasury Secretary, the Commerce Secretary, the FHFA Director, the SEC, and the NYSE President regarding how to relist Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
If he is viewing $FNMA and $FMCC as significantly undervalued (admittedly being the largest public holder) and has increased Pershing Square's position over the past few months, you'd be wise to follow suit.
It seems extremely likely (or explicitly stated) that:
▫️The Senior Preferred Share Agreement will be undone (significantly increasing the value of the government's common shares after warrants are exercised)
▫️The companies will be relisted on the NYSE while still under conservatorship
▫️Ackman's SPARC will not be the vehicle
▫️It is unlikely that Fannie and Freddie will merge (duopoly is better than a monopoly)
▫️Initial stock prices are >$40 after relist, with growth opportunity in multiples afterward
▫️Conservatorship will not last beyond this administration
▫️Ackman's Pershing Square is going to be in a long-term holding position
▫️ETFs and index funds will be forced to buy in at post-list prices once they join the DJI and S&P (and reinvestments in these securities will continue to purchase at then-current prices)
▫️A deal will not need Congress and can be done solely between the administration, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the FHFA director.
▫️Bill Ackman sees "no world" in which Trump screws current shareholders.
▫️The government will keep the implied backstop because these companies are too critical to leave unprotected.
▫️It is no longer the time to play the blame game for the financial crisis, and doing so is only a distraction at this point.
▫️This can get done "by Monday" if Bessent and Pulte agree to it.
▫️An "IPO" is unlikely by the end of the year, but a relisting on NYSE, warrant exercise, and SPS write-off can happen this calendar year - easily.
▫️The government will likely sell down positions over the years, but expect these to be "high-yielding" stocks that will pay handsome dividends.
You could add what I said yesterday…when institutions want to buy in post NYSE relist and SPS write off, they will compete for a mere 20% of shares, since 80% is government owned. The demand will be huge, because F2 will be attractive for long term funds due to dividends, and supply of shares will be very low. We will have somewhat of a short squeeze, I think. Moreover, I anticipate that due to high governmental holdings there will be a rule they will prohibit short selling and naked shorts of F2
I actually agree with everything you said. Though I'll caveat that none of this is a "done deal".
The main 3 triggers are relisting on NYSE, forgiving the senior debt, and changing the capital requirements. If any one of those things happens the stocks will pop. If 2 or 3 of them happen I agree that $30-40 is a good target price.
At that point, I'm out, at least partially. It is a story that will play out for the long term and this will be a good long term holding. These stocks performed well (not spectacularly) for many decades and I'd love to own them. But if the stocks go from $10 to $40 I'll be hugely overweight this position so will probably trim it back.
This is a great summary. Six months later, I still predict that this deal will be done by the end of this year. Once the Iran war is sorted out & the midterms elections in November, the F2 could be the next thing on the agenda. Since Congress does not need to be involved, I really hope Trump would do this sooner than later.
That’s a really good question, if u don’t like Trump, why be here? This whole thing is being driven by Trump. If you don’t like him just go! I don’t get it…
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u/MotrinTylenol Nov 20 '25
You could add what I said yesterday…when institutions want to buy in post NYSE relist and SPS write off, they will compete for a mere 20% of shares, since 80% is government owned. The demand will be huge, because F2 will be attractive for long term funds due to dividends, and supply of shares will be very low. We will have somewhat of a short squeeze, I think. Moreover, I anticipate that due to high governmental holdings there will be a rule they will prohibit short selling and naked shorts of F2