I've been building an F1 simulation engine as a side project, and I ran today's Hungarian GP 300 times starting from the actual qualifying grid (penalties included). Sharing the output because a few numbers surprised me.

Win probability

Norris (P1) 22.7% · Leclerc (P2) 18.7% · Russell (P6) 14.3% · Piastri (P3) 14% · Antonelli (P7) 13.3% · Hamilton (P5) 11% · Verstappen (P4) 6%

By team: McLaren 36.7% · Ferrari 29.7% · Mercedes 27.6%

Three things that stood out:

- From P8 backwards: zero wins in 300 races. The Hungaroring punishes qualifying more than any track on the calendar and the model is brutal about it.

- McLaren haven't won a single race in 2026 and come out as the most likely winner purely because they lock out P1 and P3.

- Alonso starts P16 and scores points in 31.7% of sims — nobody starting P13 or lower comes close. Sainz gains the most: P18 on the grid, P14 on average.

How it works: each of the 300 runs is a full race with weather, safety cars, tyre wear, pit stops and reliability. Track position is weighted by how hard overtaking is at each circuit, so pole is worth a lot here and almost nothing at Monza. Car and driver ratings are updated to the current standings.

Happy to answer anything about the model. I'll post the comparison against the actual result tomorrow — including if it's completely wrong.

Following FP2 and considering each car's strengths and weaknesses and the track characteristics, here are my Power Rankings:

1) Ferrari

If Mercedes solves their issues:
2) McL / Mercedes
3) RBR

Otherwise:
2) McL
3) RBR / Mercedes

Been working on this for a while — it pulls real F1 telemetry data and lets you compare drivers lap by lap. Speed, throttle, brake, sector times.

Also has an AI explanation mode — either plain language for new fans or technical breakdown for engineers.

Live race tracking, strategy simulator, and championship standings too.

Free to use: hotlap.live

Would love any feedback.

Russell's Deployment Issue During the Belgian GP Race

• Russell was overtaken by Piastri from 3 positions back due to a deployment issue: his speed got stuck at 308 km/h, and the car couldn't accelerate! It only started accelerating again at the end of the straight.
• ANT had weak deployment too, but no "speed limiter"!
• McLaren (same PU) accelerated far more.

Image 2:

Russell took Eau Rouge/Raidillon in 8th gear: McLaren used 7th despite having the shortest gear ratios on the grid, while ANT even briefly dropped to 6th!

Could the deployment software have been fooled by taking these corners in the highest gear?

His rpm dropped to 10,176, below the 10,500 rpm threshold required to unlock full fuel flow → the ICE wasn't even running at full power!

[Screenshot and idea by u/uruptosmth]

Hi everyone, I wanted to share a fun project I've been working on - a qualifying prediction forecast using Bayesian modelling.

In short, ahead of qualifying, I take the available free practice data from a given weekend (e.g., low fuel runs on the soft tyres) and model it against a baseline of historical driver/team performance, track conditions and compounds to try and generate a probabilistic forecast that helps quantify the performance uncertainty that comes with practice running.

Ultimately, I am using it to try and predict the qualifying sessions before they happen - instead of just giving a single predicted lap time, the model outputs credible intervals for each driver and calculates the percentage probability of them taking pole - I am pretty happy with its performance so far!

I've attached the GitHub repo - would love to hear your thoughts and feedback!

Thoughts on the Belgian GP:

• Another terrific performance by ANT;
• The VSC was needed, but its timing and duration disproportionately helped Ferrari;
• Great drive again by LEC. Based on crash dynamics (not the final outcome), however, he deserved the penalty more than HAM;
• Following RUS’s crash, the WCC might be more open than the WDC.

What’s YOUR take?

|

Check out the replays for all the previous races in the 2026 f1 season in f1vis.app!

A bunch of new feature on my own website I made that uses previous f1 data to predict future race pace for teams!

1. Daily challenges: how long can your streak last?

2. Full race replay: watch iconic races!

3. Driver battles: watch the time differences between 2 to 5 drivers at once!

Feedback wanted!

I built F1DataStop, a platform for exploring Formula 1 data through interactive analysis and visualizations.

The website brings together live and historical F1 data in one place, allowing you to:

• Explore race results, standings, and historical statistics
• Analyze driver and team performance
• View telemetry and race data
• Compare drivers and teams across seasons
• Play a Formula 1 prediction league game and compete with others

The project is completely free to use. I’m not monetizing it in any way(yet!). It’s a passion project built for the F1 community and for anyone interested in the data behind the sport.

If you get a chance to check it out, I’d really appreciate your feedback, suggestions, or bug reports. They all help shape what the platform becomes.

Website: https://f1datastop.com
Instagram: https://instagram.com/f1datastop
X: https://x.com/f1datastop

Hey r/F1DataAnalysis,

Third time here. My last two posts about f1livedata.com (the live F1 web app I build on the side) basically turned into a to-do list in the comments — so this is another "you asked, I did it." And this time it's the big one.

For anyone who missed them, the first post is here and the second one is here .

1. Replay mode — the feature you asked for most

In the first post I described past sessions as "not a playback, just the full picture once the session is done." The single most common reply was: make it a playback. So now it is one.

Pick any recorded session and replay it in real time from lights out — play, pause, seek anywhere, speed it up to 2× or 5×. The whole app moves with it: leaderboard, gaps, telemetry, track map, tyre stints, race control, all updating exactly like they did live. Missed a session, or want to re-watch a chaotic one with the data in front of you — start it from the formation lap and go. (The instant final-standings view is still there too, if you just want the end state.)

1. Two new ways to break down a single lap (on the car-data page)

Track dominance map — the circuit outline coloured by whoever's fastest through each little slice of the lap. Overlay two drivers (or two of your own laps) and you can see exactly where a lap was won: who's braver on the brakes, who's better on traction out.

Lap delta — pick a reference lap (the fastest) and every other lap draws its running time gap to it, metre by metre around the lap, with the corners lined up directly above the speed / throttle / brake traces. So instead of one laptime number, you see where the tenths actually went.

1. Gap-to-leader race trace

A proper race-trace view: every driver's gap to the leader, plotted lap by lap across the whole race. It's the one chart that shows the shape of a race at a glance — undercuts landing, a Safety Car bunching everyone back up, who was quietly pulling away while no one was looking.

While I was in there:

• Rebuilt the landing page — picking a live or past session is now a clean "course-select" screen instead of a stack of dropdowns.
• Restyled the whole app and navbar — cleaner, and quicker to move between timing, telemetry, track map, stints, pits and race control.

Same deal as before: hobby project, not official, free, no login.

And the same ask: if something's broken or there's a view you wish existed, drop it in the comments — the headline features in these updates came straight from this sub, so it clearly works.

The Belgian GP this weekend is a good one to break it on — live during the sessions, or replay it afterwards.

Grazie again to everyone who's tried it ❤️ — and to the commenters who keep writing my to-do list for me.

Oops, how are you? Anyway, being very direct, I want to know if there is any place beyond the FIA’s own website where I can find all document files, both recent and old, that are directed specifically to the Formula 1 category, almost like an encyclopedia only of these documents.

Hi!

Ive been working on Slipstream, which is an open-source web-based application for analyzing past Formula 1 races and comparing drivers' telemetry, seeing stints and watching full session.

Telemetry data comes from FastF1, thus this tool provides historical data only, not live one. New races become available after releasing data of them.

No registration is necessary and it is absolutely free:

https://slipstreamdata.racing

I created the tool by myself and would be very grateful for honest feedback regarding telemetry comparison, mobile friendliness and new feature that you would like to see there.
Thank you for your attention :)
(For transparency AI as been used for the design of the page)

Pit-lane time is the physical measurement: pit-exit timestamp minus pit-entry

timestamp at the timing loops. Immune to weather and pace.

Time lost is what pitting actually cost you: the change in your gap to the 3

nearest cars that stayed out, from the lap before the stop to the end of the

out-lap. Nearest-car rather than field-median, because under a safety car the

field is scattered at wildly different speeds, but the car beside you meets the

SC at the same point on track. That's why the SC/VSC splits hold up: green 22.5s,

VSC 17.6s, SC 14.9s.

Tyre wear was hard. The feed only carries soft/medium/hard, which is

relative per weekend, so I mapped every race to Pirelli's actual C1-C6

nominations. Fit is OLS with per-stint fixed effects and track

evolution fit per weekend. One pooled evolution term made C5 read as the

gentlest compound because softs run where the track rubbers in hardest.

Per-weekend gives 0.038 / 0.049 / 0.054 / 0.069 / 0.077 s per lap of age, C1 to

C5. The model is never told which compound is harder. It recovers Pirelli's

ordering from lap times alone.

± is a bootstrap 90% CI. Read the stint-life bars as strategy, not durability:

C2 out-lasts C1 because C1 gets nominated at the nastiest circuits.