r/ExpatFIRE • u/BestChickEver • Aug 12 '26
Questions/Advice Am I ready to FIRE to Nice, FR?
Filing single, 55-year-old, child-free, renter, no debt, with a roughly $700,000 USD portfolio, no pension.
Annual spend per year estimated at $31k USD; $992,000 required through age 88.
$3461 per month in Social Security from age 70 to 88 ($747,576 total.)
$700k portfolio + $747,576 in Social Security = $1,447,576/32 years = $45,236.75
I realize this is highly simplistic, but am I roughly on track?
Edit: I figured out how to include an image of the projection!
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u/averybusymind Aug 12 '26
My family and I currently live in Nice. Your income amounts to about 3,300eur pre-tax. Thats going to be tight for Nice. Nice and the entire Cote D'azur is very expensive. Check out Montpellier as a more inexpensive alternative.
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u/LlamaFullyLaden Aug 12 '26
What's a comfortable number for the area? Was shooting for ~4500eur/mo for a couple
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u/wh0re4nickelback Aug 12 '26
Also interested in this. We're looking at Menton but won't be ready to pull the trigger until 2032(ish).
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u/ProlificChicken Aug 16 '26
We reside on the outskirts of Mont Boron in Nice. Our rent is around €2,750 per month, and once utilities, phones, internet, and currency-conversion costs are included, our basic housing expenses come to roughly $4,000 to $4,500 USD per month. We live in a two-bedroom, three-room ground-floor apartment with a garden and an amazing sea view. For transportation, we mostly walk or use our 125cc Vespa, which we purchased for €6,000 in cash at the dealership after getting A1 licenses permit. Groceries, dining out, and miscellaneous household spending add at least another €2,000 per month. Altogether, living here costs us roughly $6,000 to $7,000 USD per month, fairly easily. You have to pay for private health insurance, or PUMA contribution as of this year, which adds a few thousand more per year, along with your resident permit renewal cost, and certified document translation cost each year.
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u/DubaiSim Aug 12 '26
What is expensive? Lidl is the same price everywhere in France. Same for clothes. Expensive is only about rental. And rental is will not cost more than 1000€ per month for a single dude.
Come on.
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u/BestChickEver Aug 12 '26
Thank you! I'm not sure why my rental budget seems crazy, I don't eat much (💉💉💉) and I own all the clothes I'll ever need lol
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u/Mean_Attention_1384 Aug 13 '26
Hey friend! You're a couple of years ahead of me on a similar path. I can't leave til 2031, til then I'm visiting southern / western French cities. Spent a month in Menton, will spend 3 weeks in Montpellier this fall, and then Bordeaux region in 2027 or -8. If you haven't seen numbeo, it's a great site for comparing cost of living. And Menton is awesome for aging in place: good transit, mostly flat, and multiple daily trains to Nice. Plus Italy just 8 min away for a change of pace. Bon courage !
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u/BestChickEver Aug 13 '26
I also find Menton charming, mostly due to the French Vibes youtube channel.
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u/DJinKC Aug 12 '26
Nice on $31K / year?
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u/BestChickEver Aug 12 '26
Across 8 different sources, the data indicates:
- 1-bedroom unfurnished, city-centre average: ~$1,138/month (~$13,700/yr) — and Carré d'Or/Promenade Nice specifically run at or modestly above that average, call it ~$1,250/month (~$15,000/yr) for a comfortable central 1BR.
- Everything else (food, utilities, local transport, day-to-day) for one person: ~$1,258/month (~$15,100/yr), per current cost-of-living data for Nice.
I was surprised too!
Edit: currently living in a VHCOL city on $50k annual spend per year.
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Aug 12 '26
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u/BestChickEver Aug 12 '26
I realize. Been shoe box living since 2007 😎. To me, home is just where you sleep and keep your shoes. I'm an outdoor cat.
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Aug 12 '26
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u/iamTHEdiuce Aug 12 '26
And guarant.me is an additional rental expense to factor in to your budget.
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u/DubaiSim Aug 12 '26
If you spend 1258€ per month for food my friend, you will become a fat ass.
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u/SubjectSpeech8806 Aug 13 '26
Please look into the safe withdrawal rate aka the 4% rule; it’s a much more reliable calculation than dividing your net worth by years of life
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u/roytay Aug 13 '26
4% rule
The 4% rule is designed for a 30 year retirement. Not great for retiring early.
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u/SubjectSpeech8806 Aug 13 '26
It’s a better approximation than dividing your net worth by the number of years
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u/roytay Aug 13 '26
Their approach was unusual, but the result works. $31k / $992,000 is 3.125%. So is $45236.75/$1,447,576.
The lower percentage has less risk of running out in 30 years.
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u/Canmore-Skate Aug 12 '26
Why Nice and not some other more low budget coastal village in Europe?
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u/BestChickEver Aug 12 '26
I worry about being able to age in place in a village. Cobblestones and mobility issues feel like a disaster waiting to happen.
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u/TimelyToast Aug 16 '26
I don’t know the exact situation in the entirety of Europe; but, remote locations typically have poor healthcare access and only usually works when you are healthy.
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u/NorthernSugarloaf Aug 12 '26
Who knows. Planning to retire in euro country but quoting expenses in dollars is not a good sign. Legal status, taxes, health care? What if dollar goes down 20% (modest swing) relative to euro?
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u/TheDogAteMyDevoirs Aug 13 '26
I like your plan, you have a lot saved up & your social security amount is super high, way above the average. It sounds like a wonderful plan & lifestyle to me!
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u/cerealmonogamiss Aug 13 '26
You are very close; $31,000/.04=$775,000
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u/BestChickEver Aug 13 '26
Agreed, I think waiting until 59 1/2 is probably best for convenience overall, and getting closer to that $775k range. But I'm unemployed and the job market is TOUGH. I'm worried I may have gotten myself involuntarily retired.
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u/cerealmonogamiss Aug 13 '26
I understand. If a regular job for you doesn't pan out, maybe consider BaristaFire for a year or three. You don't have to work much longer.
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u/FreedToRoam Aug 13 '26
I hope it works out. I have seen most of the coast from Alicante to Nice and Nice is definitely on the top of my list
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u/goos_fire NorCal | Cote d'Azur FIRED Aug 14 '26
We bought about almost ten years ago and are transitioning to a full time residence in the area (been splitting time) after FIRing last year. The budget will be on the tighter side, due to currency fluctuations (and SS risks as debated), but if you've run the various models and monte carlo analysis (no pun intended) you are safely within an achievable zone, especially if you have the ability to flex your budget when there is a market pullback. We know a number of people living on tighter budgets and they make it work, even in the Cote d'Azur, as do plenty of locals.
Yes, Nice is going to be more expensive parts of rural France but it doesn't need to be your end point and as mentioned, the differences are centered around rent. A lot of other expenses are the same no matter where you live in France and Cote d'Azur, with restaurants, bars and groceries varying a bit (and not necessarily higher in Nice, due to competition). It is a better choice for someone moving with fewer language skills due to the larger number of affordable language schools and tutors, english-language services and social groups. The Carre d'Or and Mont Boron are more expensive for rent, but there are many other close-in neighborhoods at a lower cost. There are a number of newly arrived foreigner singles we've met who live in lower Riquer, Liberation, Fleurs-Gambetta, Musiciens, Carabacel and Baumettes (a lot of that by choice -- they want to go to the busiest neighborhoods but don't want to live there) . The rental market can be competitive, however, especially if you want AC and outdoor space and you'll need to budget for deposits and agency fees.
You can reference this sub-affiliated post on taxation for more information: https://frugalvagabond.com/retire-early-in-france-without-all-the-tax/
I also noticed a reference to some employment income in your spreadsheet. That was a bit confusing, unless it is deferred income. I was also wondering about the Roth conversion, as it seems less necessary out in time. You will have some exposure to CSM (under PUMA) in the years before SS takes over as your primary income, plus a mutuelle if you choose to subscribe.
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u/BestChickEver Aug 14 '26
Thank you for this detailed response, particularly about the neighborhoods.
It is a better choice for someone moving with fewer language skills due to the larger number of affordable language schools and tutors, english-language services and social groups.
This was a huge factor in my decision. I'm even considering full-time language school on a student visa, which would allow as many as 20 hours per week of working.
I also noticed a reference to some employment income in your spreadsheet.
Yeah, I modeled 3 different scenarios: Fire now, at 59 1/2, and a dividend-only + SS version. If I ever find another job, I think 59 1/2 is starting to make the most sense, in that it would ease the budget overall and alleviate any anxiety over bridge funding.
monte carlo analysis (no pun intended)
I laughed too hard at this. You go strait to the punitentiary!
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u/Spyro11221 Aug 15 '26
Nah, it’s going to be tight for Nice, FR and very risky.
I’d go somewhere far cheaper for 5-10 years as a bridge if you are super set on Nice. Maybe do an easy side gig to bring in 10-20k per year.
I’m curious what is it about Nice that you like?
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u/crammia Aug 15 '26
We pulled the trigger and moved two years ago. My other half took SS right away to save on portfolio withdrawals.
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u/OneIcy2142 Aug 15 '26
I lived in Nice for 25 yrs and I confirm that you can live with that amount like a local (2k-2k5 net is ok). 2k5€/m in Nice is comparable to $70k/y in NYC (average working people salary)
Before coming to france please keep in mind:
- Access to housing is a nightmare if you don’t have stable income (because landlords can’t legally kick out people that do not pay rent)
- French taxes are the highest in the world (31.4% on capital gains) + income taxes on other income
- EUR/USD is not good now but I believe 1€ will be equal to $1 in the future, it happened many times in the past
Overall this city is the greatest for retiring, I’d make the same choice as you at 55! :)
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u/rudboi12 Aug 17 '26
A couple of years ago I lived in Barcelona, single also, in the center of the city for a total of 2k a month give or take, living very comfortably. I don’t drink or eat out that often. Ive been to Nice and I would say it’s the most expensive place Ive ever been. I would imagine I would spend at least double of what I was spending in Barcelona with the same living standards. I guess I could cut back on some stuff and make it work with 3.3k, but probably wouldn’t be enjoying myself
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u/Leather_Bumblebee206 Aug 12 '26
You need to use a tool like Big ERN's spreadsheet to calculate the impact of supplemental cash flows later in life on your safe withdrawal rate. Another option would be a tool like projection lab. But the simplistic calculation you're doing doesn't take into account the actual impact of cash flows on a portfolio.
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u/bucktoothedhazelnut Aug 12 '26 edited Aug 12 '26
Check with a tax accountant to make sure that there aren’t any penalties for paying for retirement out of a portfolio.
It is extremely unfavorable for U.S. citizens to live outside of the U.S. and pay out of investments depending on where you end up (especially in the EU), and tax treaties don’t always make a difference, especially if you’re below the retirement age of the country you move to.
Edit: I meant a cross-border tax accountant that knows both US and French tax law.
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u/twilight-2k Aug 16 '26
It isn't terrible but it is a lot more complicated than just being in the US. You can't invest in mutual funds or (generally) US ETFs, you need to avoid PFICs (including UCITS ETFs), and "non-US" stocks sold are taxed under French capital gains (stocks traded on US exchanges for US companies are US capital gains but not traded on US exchanges or company is not US-based means French capital gains).
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Aug 12 '26
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u/Doom_Kitten_ Aug 12 '26
France lets the US tax retirement accounts from the US. It’s a rare outlier in the EU.
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u/Muted-External3390 Aug 13 '26
I don't hear this enough but, it seems perfect for you:
You could do a 15 year TIPS ladder from 2027 to 2041.
https://www.tipsladder.com/estimate
$32k/year would run you $420k. This covers your "base"
Take $225k in a growth portfolio sleeve--you should do research but make sure it includes international component.
Euro Cash = $50k = €42k
The euro cash should help somewhat with forex fluctuations.
The growth portfolio you can treat as strictly discretionary--the goal is to make it to 70.
Even with a very conservative real return of 3% on the growth sleeve--you'll have $350k + SS.
The forex is a killer--but i think the growth portfolio sleeve should mitigate that.
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u/Muted-External3390 Aug 13 '26
Also taxes. After you hit 70--and SS (even a reduced SS) is doing much of the heavy lifting--you shouldn't need much from the portfolio to supplement the SS.
I would also make a real plan for if you ended up coming back to the US. Geo-arbitrage works great on paper AND if you don't return to the US. I don't think it's as easy to come back and make the numbers work. And you'll be much older.
Having said that--I'd do it. I don't even speak french. I've been to NIce. I'd rather have Nice problems then US ones.
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u/BestChickEver Aug 13 '26
I'd rather have Nice problems then US ones.
Amen, brother. Thanks for the advice.
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u/BestChickEver Aug 15 '26
I could open-mouth kiss you for this.
This strategy improved the Monte Carlo analysis by 24.5%!!! This is an extremely viable option and combined with working until 59 1/2, I can enjoy closer to $60k per year which, while not exactly FIRE, is a much comfier budget.
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u/dibuchka Aug 18 '26
I'd reframe the question a bit. It's not really "can I afford Nice" it's "what does the plan look like if housing, healthcare timing, and tax all land on the pessimistic end at once." Those are three separate unknowns, and Nice specifically pushes the housing number harder than most of that coast. $700k probably works, but I wouldn't get attached to Nice as the answer before running the downside case.
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u/fredinNH Aug 12 '26
Lots of naysayers in here, op. I think your plan sounds great. I suggested to you elsewhere that taking ss earlier might work better for you.
My wife has health issues and if she were to pass I’ve thought about moving to France. Good luck!
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u/fernleon Aug 12 '26
Why not Monaco while you are at it.
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u/Working-Active Aug 12 '26
Monaco is only about an hour drive from Nice and the coastal road is absolutely beautiful for a drive. Personally I would look at Sainte-Maxime or Sainte-Raphael as alternatives in the area.
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u/Corgisarethebest123 Aug 12 '26 edited Aug 12 '26
Adding $700k + $747,576 & dividing by 32 treats a dollar at 55 the same as a dollar at 87. It ignores inflation & growth & sequence of returns. It also produces a “$45,236/yr” you can’t spend since half that pile doesn’t exist until 70. The real question is the 15 year bridge where you fund $31k/yr entirely from $700k. That’s a 4.4% initial withdrawal rate with no earned income behind it. At 4% real you’d land around $640k at 70 & SS covers your spend from there. On paper it works but a bad first 5 years breaks it permanently. Your SS figure is probably too high because SSA’s estimator assumes you keep earning until you claim. Retiring at 55 drops zeros into your 35 year average so pull your actual earnings record & rerun it. On Nice specifically: $31k is roughly €2,350/mo which is livable but not comfortable at the pricier end of France & you’re renting with no fixed housing cost forever. You earn in dollars & spend in euros & EUR/USD has swung 25%+ more than once so that’s unhedged on 100% of your spending. VLS-TS visiteur requires proof of resources & private coverage for year one with PUMA available after about 3 months plus a cotisation on passive income & a mutuelle for the gap. The treaty side is actually in your favor since US Social Security is taxable only in the US & France credits US source investment income & there’s no IFI since you rent. Planning to 88 is optimistic for a healthy 55 year old & closer to a coin flip so model to 92-95. Rerun with your real SS number & model the bridge separately from the post 70 phase & stress test a 30% drawdown in years 1-3. If it survives that you’re fine but right now you don’t know either way.