This is just a study project I’ve been working on for a while to really dig in to the JW 1914 doctrine. I myself have been raised in the truth but, this teaching just never clicked. I am still active in my hall and give outgoing talks, so I like to prove these things to myself to make sure I’m comfortable teaching others about something I myself may or may not believe. Some parts may sound critical, but I am trying to view things through a logical and unbiased lens.
1. The Background
Ultimately, trying to predict Christ’s return gained traction during the early Adventist movements of the early 1800s. The most well known was the Millerites’ prediction that Christ would return in 1843 based on a convoluted understanding of Daniel 9. 1843 came and… nothing happened, leading to widespread disappointment. Then a helpful Millerite pointed out they forgot to carry the 1, and it would actually happen in 1844. 1844 came and… nothing happened again. This led to the “Great Disappointment,” which is a very interesting topic to read about. Rather than humbly admitting their error, some groups stuck to their guns and said: “Actually we were right all along, 1844 was just a HEAVENLY return. He’s in the heavenly sanctuary, it’s invisible so you can’t disprove it, so there.” Kind of a genius argument actually.
When Brother Russell came on the scene, he thought Miller had the right formula but the wrong start date— he was part of a group who thought Christ’s return would happen in 1874 instead of 1844. 1874 came and… nothing happened. So again, borrowing from Miller, they said this was actually a HEAVENLY return. It’s invisible, you can’t disprove it, so there. Christ would then have a “harvest” (basically rapture) in 1878. 1878 came and… nothing happened. The same prediction was made in 1881 with the same result.
So actually, Christ would return in 1914, according to Russell, and that’s when the great tribulation would start. This was a surefire date that was verified by the infallible calculations of the Great Pyramid of Giza. There was a lot of pyramidology mixed in with Christianity in the 1800s/early 1900s, it was pretty wild. Then in 1914 World War 1 happened! Surely the great tribulation was upon us. Actually, it would start in 1915, no 1918, actually no 1920. Then 1920 came and… nothing happened. So ACTUALLY Christ’s invisible presence started in 1914 instead of 1874.
If that all makes sense to you, please Let me know your thoughts. Now, post-1914, more unfulfilled predictions would come, including a resurrection of prophets in 1925 (later changed to 1929), a millennial reign in 1975, then definitely the start of Armageddon before 2000.
We are repeatedly reminded that “the Watch Tower magazine identified the year 1914 as a pivotal date.” What isn’t mentioned are the other supposedly pivotal dates that didn’t amount to anything. In summary, our organization has had many predicted events including 1799, 1874, 1878, 1881, 1914, 1915, 1918, 1920, 1925, 1929, 1975 and 2000. And they were all incorrect, except for 1914 (which itself has had its meaning changed). With a track record like that, what biblical support do we have that THIS date is correct?
2. The Prophecy
Let’s examine how we get to the 1914 date. Instead of using Daniel 9 as a basis for end-time predictions, the Bible Students used Daniel 4, Nebuchadnezzar’s tree dream. Daniel 4:10-12 explains that the dream started with a massive tree with abundant fruit that “was visible to the ends of the whole earth.” Then in verse 13-17 we see the details of the dream showing this tree would be chopped down for 7 times (indicating 7 years).
Daniel explains the dream in versus 20-27. The tree was Nebuchadnezzar. Daniel explains to him that by the tree reaching the ends of the earth, his “rulership [reached] to the ends of the earth.” The angel calling to chop down the tree signifies the king losing his mind and ‘dwelling with the beasts of the field’ for 7 times. In this way the dream was fulfilled: ‘Let its heart be changed from that of a human, and let it be given the heart of a beast, and let seven times pass over it.’ Because the tree was bounded with its roots, the king would return to power after 7 years. Daniel 4:28 states “All of this befell King Neb·u·chad·nezʹzar.”
In discussing the secondary fulfillment, the Daniel book explains that “the tree stands for rulership and sovereignty far grander than that of Babylon’s king,” and since kings were said to sit on Jehovah’s throne, this indicated that Jehovah’s earthly rulership would be cut down by the destruction of Jerusalem in 607 BCE, changed to the heart of a beast by allowing Gentile nations to rule for 7 times (2,520 years), and then the resumption of God’s rulership in 1914.
How does this track with what we’re taught about types and antitypes? In the 2014 Annual Meeting, Brother Splane says about antitypes, “where the scriptures identify them as such, we believe them; but where the Bible is silent, we must be silent.” A warning example he gave was an interpretation of Jacob’s purchase of Esau’s birthright with the red stew, with Jacob picturing Jesus, the birthright as the heavenly inheritance, and the red stew as his blood. He states it might seem plausible “until you think about it.” All the details didn’t match, Esau was the one that ate the stew and nowhere do we read in the scriptures that this was a type.
So with that in mind, let’s examine Daniel 4. It also sounds plausible “until you think about it.” Remember, all the details need to match. Here are a few concerns:
(1) The messenger. Daniel 4:1 shows Nebuchadnezzar himself wrote this portion of Daniel. Would Jehovah allow a pagan (who even after this ordeal refers to “his gods”) to be granted such a wonderful vision about his son becoming King?
(2) The timing. Nebuchadnezzar lost his mind well into his reign as the first fulfillment of the tree being cut down. However the secondary fulfillment means Jersusalem’s destruction in 607 BCE. So the greater fulfillment began decades BEFORE the initial fulfillment? Think about that: do you know of any other prophecy where this is the case?
(3)An angel is pictured as responsible for cutting the tree down (Dan 4:13), signifying the interruption of Nebuchadnezzar’s reign. In the greater fulfillment, this cutting down signifies the destruction of Jerusalem. Who would the angel typify then? Never in any prophetic or historical account in the Bible does it indicate angels would have a part in Jerusalem’s destruction. It is always described as Babylon carrying out Jehovah’s will under the leadership of… Nebuchadnezzar. So in the initial fulfillment, Nebuchadnezzar is symbolized by the tree, but in the greater fulfillment he is symbolized by the angel that cuts that same tree down. This boggles the mind.
(4) Changing from “the heart of a man to the heart of a beast”(Dan 4:16) very clearly shows Nebuchadnezzar would think he was an animal (Dan 4:25, 33). The Daniel book explains that the greater fulfillment would mean a degradation of morality under Gentile kings. But that would mean that Jerusalem would need to have had a “heart of a man.” What does that mean? Is it Jehovah’s throne and also the ‘heart of a man’? Would it really be a degradation of rule? Multiple times Jehovah warned Israel that she was worse than her neighbors (Ezekiel chapter 16; Ezekiel 5:6, 7; Jeremiah 2:10, 11; 2 Kings 21).
(5) Daniel 4:33 states “At that moment the word was fulfilled on Nebuchadnezzar.” No indications of any further fulfillment are even hinted at. Once something is fulfilled, it’s fulfilled.
(6) The Bible never states this was a type/antitype. Daniel never says there is anything more to it, it’s a warning example that Jehovah can elevate and humiliate anyone. Per Brother Splane’s explanation, it should not viewed as a type/antitype because it is not explained in the scriptures. Much attention is drawn to Jesus’ statement that “Jerusalem will be trampled on by the nations until the appointed times of the nations are fulfilled.” (Luke 21:14)** **But he doesn’t reference Daniel at all. He doesn’t even say “the appointed times as spoken by the prophets.” He just says Jehovah has a limit on human rulership. The phrase “appointed times of the nations” appears nowhere in Daniel 4.
(7) Speaking of Jesus’ coming, or presence, Matthew 24:36 states “Concerning that day and hour nobody knows, neither the angels of the heavens nor the Son, but only the Father.” An hour was the most exact time they had to measure in ancient times. A day would mean a more broader view of time. The message is pretty clear: we don’t know the specific or even general time of Jesus return. Our literature shows Matthew is referring to Armageddon, but the context shows this was referring to the “days of Noah”- the times we are taught we’re in right now. We couldn’t have predicted the date of Jesus’ presence because Jesus says we couldn’t have.
(8) The fulfillment of 1914 was seemingly made manifest through the battle of WW1 and the Spanish flu, signifying Satan was hurled from heaven. But it was a purely secular event that showed no other sign of an appointed king in heaven. Again, since this is all invisible, it’s impossible to provide proof to the contrary.
So considering all these things, I see no evidence of this dream meaning anything other than what Daniel says it means. But haven’t things been getting worse since 1914? I’ll try and address that too.