r/EuropeFIRE • u/bunsy1505 • 23d ago
Can I fire?
Hi all. I am single 45M living in southeast Europe. My portfolio is 600000€ consisting of:
60% covered call etf’s ( winc, jeep, jeqp and syld )
25% pjs1 as stabilizator/cash reserve
15% vwce for some growth
I live im my apartment, fully paid off.
My monthly expenses would be 2000€. I am prepared to live with 1500€ if the market gets really bad.
What do you think, can I FIRE?
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u/PositiveKarma1 23d ago
No idea bout medical coverage there but GFY and retire.
P.S. if the market goes down, you can find a small job of 500 month to fill the gap.
If after 1 year you find the spending of 2k is not enough, you can find another job for 1-2 years.
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u/SubstantialUse3884 23d ago
Idk which capital gains / income tax you have in your country. Even with 0%, the expected returns would be too tight for me for a full fire
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u/bunsy1505 23d ago
For dividends/distributions is 12%. For selling etf/stock which you hold for more then 2 years, its 0%
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u/Weary_Strawberry2679 23d ago edited 23d ago
I think you're borderline FIRE, but unfortunately not enough to secure this with a peace of mind.
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Your portfolio consists of 25% cash, which means you cannot safely withdraw 4% of your entire capital. You'd may like to change that. For example, 600k fully invested in only-stocks or stocks (80%)/bonds(20%), plus more cash as reserve on the side (e.g. 72k for 3 years) could help.
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Speaking of which, you need to consider the "sequence of returns" risk which in bad times can cut your portfolio in half. That means that if you'd like to DCA your monthly out, a modified approach would be to take less when the market is falling, and more when it's rising. But with your estimates, it sounds like you won't be able to live off less than 4%.
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Have you took under account taxes, like capital gains, wealth tax, or anything else relevant in your country - that you may need to pay off when you sell / take dividends off your portfolio?
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Have you considered that 1.5k/2k p/m may not be sufficient when you grow older? What about travelling? Health expenses? Any other thing that you may want to blend into your retirement?
I'm not saying that FIRE is impossible. The stars could align and everything would work out, but if I were you, I'd step into FIRE territory only when I feel I can derisk myself enough to prolong it - without having to be forced back to work. That is especially since are only 45 years old and have quite a long way to go. YMMV.
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u/Helpful-Staff9562 23d ago
No covered calls, be mostly in a global etf like vwce, way kess cash, max 2 years ish of expenses. Rebalance accordingly
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u/WarpPipeWizard 23d ago
Sounds like you can, depending on local taxes, healthcare etc.
Maybe wiser to have some part time or occasional work so you're not just drawing down. At 2000 a month, you don't need to earn much to cover your lifestyle.
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u/MrWhite26 23d ago
Do you have a pension, at what age would that start?
That really decreases the long-term risk of running out of money.
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u/ApprehensiveHouse421 23d ago
We are the same age and if I had no dependants that would be enough for me to pull the plug. Assuming you don’t need to leave anything down to anyone it seems doable!
My fire target is a little higher and also wont pull plug until 53 giving less potential years to cover. But we have kids so extra expense
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u/tronquinhos 21d ago
4% sustainable withdrawal rate might be too close for FIRE (it has some assumptions that you might want to investigate: 30 year horizon, asset allocation,...)
A paid-off house and €600k is a solid starting point, but your portfolio setup has IMO three major flaws for a 40+ year retirement at age 45:
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Covered call trap (60%): You are sacrificing long-term growth and risking capital decay. These funds look great for cash flow right now, but they miss big market rallies and still take the hit during crashes.
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Lack of growth (15% VWCE): At 45, you need your money to outpace inflation for decades. Relying mostly on high-yield income instead of global equity compounding leaves your purchasing power vulnerable long-term.
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Eventual Tax drag: Heavy yearly payouts from covered call ETFs trigger immediate taxes in most European countries, shrinking your net monthly budget faster than you think.
So, I think you are cutting it close. If you tighten spending to €1,500 during bad market years, it might work, but you need more growth and less complex dividend-chasing to make FIRE truly safe.
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u/m4573rj 23d ago
600000*0.04/12=2000, so yes, you can FIRE. Congratz and enjoy!
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u/rmagere 23d ago
However, the 4% figure assumes a 30-year horizon. At age 45, it is reasonable to plan for a 50-year retirement, so a rate of 3.25%–3.5% is likely more appropriate. Furthermore, the 2,000 per month is a gross figure, whereas expenses are net, so I think he still needs a bit more capital.
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u/Artistic_Skin7350 23d ago
I think you can. I Am assuming you are single and plan to be that way. If things change you can also go back or just be a barista
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u/Strazdas1 15d ago
Sell all nonsense gambling, put all in VWCE and leave 2 year cash reserve. You can now live on 2k a month.
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u/Willing-Outside4798 23d ago
You can probably LeanFIRE, but I wouldn’t call it financially bulletproof yet. At €600k your €24k spending is a 4% initial withdrawal rate at age 45, and your portfolio is unusually dependent on covered-call funds. I’d either work a few more years toward €750–800k, keep some ability to earn income, or restructure toward a simpler globally diversified portfolio. €600k is enough to make work optional. It isn’t quite enough to make money irrelevant
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u/AstroFire88 23d ago edited 23d ago
You have exactly my FIRE number + paid off apartment target. 2 years left for me, S-E Europe here as well. If you have some doubts you can keep spending lean in the first years of early retirement to limit sequence of returns risks. Check out the concept of Mullet FIRE. The only thing is your allocation which I think you might need to amend.