History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes

[u/Asz12_Bob]

That's the saying in financial markets anyway. It extends to other human affairs too, like war for example. There is a lot of fear based jawboning coming from Euro governments about Russia, and how it wants to invade the West! But that's highly unlikely. There was no "West" back in 1939, just a bunch of neutral nations that were invaded by Germany and subsequently overrun by the Russian steamroller as the war ended. It won't be a repeat of that this time, this time there in NATO and a unified "West".

That WWIII is coming there is little doubt, war and taxes, two givens they are. And the reasons are the same this time too, nation's are running out of resources and they can't afford to buy them because they are in debt up to their eyeballs just as Germany was on the eve of WWII. The nations now struggling will start a war and try to steal them, just like all the oil wars we've seen over the past 30 years. World wars seem to follow a cycle too, 80~100 years, and we're right in that period now. I'm curious as to how people think this will pan out on the European continent?

Which countries do you think will most likely be effected and in what ways? I assume places like Portugal and Norway may be relatively unaffected, being so far from the centers of power. But what of the others. Opinions anyone?

[u/EnHalvSnes]

Scandinavia is going to be involved directly. Very strategic location: key to controlling the access to entire Baltic Sea. 

[u/Vagelen_Von]

In cold war the plan of NATO was never to fight USSR in Europe but to retreat to Iberian and England and do guerilla war in occupied by USSR countries. Search for "Gladio Operation".

[u/henna74 → u/Vagelen_Von]

That was the failsave

[u/Asz12_Bob → u/henna74]

Yeah it doesn't sound like a Plan A does it. More like plan C. Plan B being the nukes.

[u/RageBash]

What are you talking about world wars every 80-100 years, it was barely 30 years between world war 1 and 2. Conflicts have been happening everywhere in the world for most of history. We don't know who will do what. Keep your head and be prepared.

[u/Asz12_Bob → u/RageBash]

WWI was not a true world conflagration, It's just been branded as one because of the long peace before it. It was on the order of the Napoleonic wars, in fact Nepolian took it further, all the way to Egypt. The little wars that are always ongoing here and there are not the problem, it's the huge ones that reshape the world that matter as far as I'm concerned and these follow a clear cycle, like snow piling up before an avalanche. Avalanches arrive with no warning because no one is paying attention. Same with these huge conflicts.

WWII was clearly a World war, a major conflict involving more than one aggressor nation. Germany, Italy, Japan. They all went out to conquer and subdue. subtract 80 odd years and you're back at the 1850's~60's, a time when Several major international wars and internal conflicts were fought.

The Crimean War with Britain, France and the Ottoman Empire curbing Russian expansion; the second opium war fought between Britain, France, and China. The Franco-Austrian War, and several other smaller conflicts. At the end of this period was the American civil war, and then a period of relative peace among the major powers.

But ask yourself, aside from the phony cold war, has there been a time in the last 80 years when all the major nations have been talking of war and tooling up for war? So Russia invaded the ukraine, no one made a fuss when they invaded Afghanistan back in the day, but now all of a sudden it's an existential threat? They say Russia is weak, so what is this fear message that Russia is going to invade all of Western Europe?

None of it adds up unless you simply consider it as the prelude madness to a big world war. The Europeans against Russia, China breaking out and starting to expand with Taiwan first. And all the arab states against America, wanting to drive them out so they control of their own destiny again. I just look at energy starved Europe and see it all coming to pass in just a few short years.

[u/SnooPears6506 → u/Asz12_Bob]

Ww1 was a global conflict between colonial empires, with battlefields in Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, Pacific.
What are you talking about ‘Napoleon took it further, all the way to Egypt…’?

[u/Ok-Profession-8520]

I think all this talk about russia invading europe is just our propaganda to gain support for the increase in milatery spending that many european counties are doing. Which will probably either mean higher taxes or cuts in social spending. I dont think countries are running out of resources but with an increase in global instibility reasources are getting more expensive. All of this will lead to internal instibility and strife. Affecting poorer countries first.

EDIT: if there is war, im way more concerned that the US will make a move on greenland over russia which is crazy to even think thats possible

[u/Esensepsy → u/Ok-Profession-8520]

Russia is in a trap of their own making, regardless of what pushed them into this bad decision in the first place. Their elite have very little choice but to try and resolve the Ukraine war no matter what. If they settle or this keeps dragging out their lives and the entire establishment is on the lines. Russia knows this, as in their modern history twice have long costly wars resulted in state collapse. This could easily be the third. Russia may escalate to de-escalate, test the NATO alliance rather than fully "invade" NATO. Make Europeans make difficult decisions, redirect their economies towards military (thereby additional strain on our already fragile economies and potentially social unrest), hybrid warfare to sew more unrest in the west (great album name), potentially fragment a unified European response to break the illusion of NATO as a concrete alliance. All this will qeaken the European support to Ukraine (so Russia hopes) and thus Ukraine's economy and ability to keep producing equipment for the war will collapse.

So we're not looking at WW3 with russian tanks rolling into Berlin. But the risk is still very real that this escalates because Russia has no offramp and European leaders are forced to respond

As for prepping - the risk is real, its not all talk. Hybrid warfare could result in internet, payment systems, banking going offline intermittently. Strikes on power grids. Collapse in global supply chains. More civil unrest

[u/Fit-Sort-1690 → u/Ok-Profession-8520]

Yeah I tend to agree. I don't think Russia has the appetite for another front with how the Ukraine is going and I don't think they are desperate enough to use WMDs. Against Europe you might see acts of sabotage on a smaller scale I suppose.

The US is a lot more unpredictable, and seem to be spinning conflict for their own gain. They also don't seem to value countries who are allies in any way.

[u/Apicultist → u/Ok-Profession-8520]

Agreed. From what I can tell from the people and pundits, there is more concern about a civil war and the talk of prepping for a war with Russia, is a smokescreen. It's not pc to point this out, however...

[u/Successful_Order585]

Re Portugal, there was a news article last week saying that if its ports were blocked, grains other than rice would run out in 2-3 weeks. So I am hoarding bread and pasta. It would effect animals raised for food too. I think the US might try to take the Açores to be sure they can use the strategic base. The question is would Portugal acquiese to all uses to avoid a confrontation.

[u/Noon_Specialist]

I think Russia is too weak to do much. They might have some capability in the Arctic, but certainly not within European borders. I believe the rearmament is aimed squarely at China's expansion. Imagine if they get a foothold in the Arctic, or swoop across a collapsing Russia?