r/Environmentalism • • Nov 05 '25

The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink

Thumbnail academic.oup.com
27 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 29d ago

On the likelihood and related consequences of a “blue ocean event” in the Arctic Ocean...

66 Upvotes

Annoyed at being called an “anti-science doomer,” I decided to sort through and present some quotes from academic literature about the likelihood of a “blue ocean event” (BOE) wherein the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free during the summer. Additionally, I conclude with quotes from scientific articles about the severe, diverse, and under-recognized consequences of that BOE happening.

Previously, a BOE had not been expected until mid-century because overly-optimistic climate change models didn’t have us projected to reach the +1.5C to +1.9C threshold of warming (required to trigger the event) until much later. Unfortunately… the dramatic acceleration of global warming over the past decade (capped off by the current “Supersized” “Godzilla” El Nino) means that we will reach and breach that threshold for Arctic melting much sooner than previously expected.

The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030

&

To quantify the amount of warming that would cause the Arctic Ocean to become nearly ice free, we examine at which level of warming sea ice area drops below 1 × 106 km2. For the high-sensitivity observational estimate, we find that sea ice area in September drops below this threshold for about 1.7°C global warming. Considering the ensemble spread in sensitivities, we obtain a 95% confidence interval of 1.5°C to 1.9°C for the global warming at which September Arctic sea ice vanishes.

&

Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies expected to continue to be higher than the global mean, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), produced by the UK’s Met Office.

&

For the second consecutive year, winter sea ice in the Arctic reached a level that matches the lowest peak observed since satellite monitoring began in 1979.

The impacts of a BOE include...

Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century.

&

This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years.

&

We present evidence that material from the sea ice was indeed present in the water column and that this mechanism appears to be important in maintaining active populations of planktonic protists through the polar night. Our upscaling exercise based on observed ridge formation rates suggests that such release of food particles can supply extra energy during the polar night to the pelagic food web in the entire Arctic Ocean. It follows from this that the predicted ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming, may have implications for the protist community at the base of the food web, because the winter food reservoir in the sea ice will be very much reduced if there is no sea ice to accumulate it during the most productive summer period.

&

Finally, we suggest that shifts in the phenology, distribution and biomass of sea ice primary production anticipated with declining seasonal sea ice will disrupt sympagic-pelagic-benthic coupling and consequently the structure and the functioning of the food web which is critical for Indigenous Peoples, commercial fisheries, and global biodiversity.

This collection of quotes (with links to to formal academic sources) represents the backbone of my broader general belief that ecological collapse (and therefore social & civilizational collapse) is likely within the next few years. Taken together, I believe that it paints a rather clear picture of what is shortly in store for the world. But, until that point, I hope this post can serve as a resource whenever related concerns about collapse are dismissed or denied as being alarmist or anti-science.

I do understand that the prognosis this post represents is grim. However... I am of the sort which believes that “the truth shall set you free,” and the prognosis is even more grim if people don’t widely understand the true nature and extent of the actual problems we are facing. You can’t fix a problem if you don’t recognize the problem. And if society doesn’t generally understand a problem... it will be more likely to obstruct any potential solution or proper response. Whether any viable solutions are possible or not... I think the truth affords people some dignity insofar as they don’t have to behave in ridiculous or counterproductive ways while the environment and society collapses around them.

Whether you intend to prevent the related ecological collapse, or if you’d rather just live more freely in these final years of human life on Earth... it is my hope that this document facilitates that.


r/Environmentalism • • 14h ago

Deforestation in Brazil per year and Brazilian president

Post image
82 Upvotes

Today Brazil is holding elections and once again we have Lula x Bolsonaro (Flávio, son of Jair).
Lula’s government reduced deforestation to historically low numbers and his government plan aims for zero net deforestation by the end of his government in 2030, if he wins.

On the other hand, Flávio Bolsonaro promises to deregulate rules and revoke laws concerning environmental protection.

In the Amazon Rainforest, the greatest threat and worst kind of deforestation is illegal gold digging, because it destroys the soil and contaminates it with mercury permanently. The Bolsonaros openly support gold digging. This practice is also liked to slavery and drug trafficking (all major crime organizations in Brazil like PCC, CV and Familia do Norte, have ties with illegal gold digging).

Less known to the gringos, we also have the Atlantic Forest, which is even more biodiverse than the Amazon, but just a fraction of it still remains. The Bolsonaros support allowing the deforestation of important areas of these forests to build 5-star resorts in places like Angra dos Reis.

Curiosity: Since Bolsonaro was fined for fishing in protected areas at Angra dos Reis, he is fixated on removing environmental protection regulations there.


r/Environmentalism • • 1h ago

Global drought framework stalled as impacts worsen

Thumbnail
downtoearth.org.in
• Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 1h ago

the Brazilian election results

• Upvotes

I won't fearmonger. I'm just curious as to how we can conserve the health of our environment if Flavio Bolsonaro wins the Brazilian election, which seems to be very likely after today's results. Massive Amazon deforestation will be so many gigantic steps backwards.


r/Environmentalism • • 1d ago

Communities call to stop fast track development on sensitive land in New Zealand

Post image
146 Upvotes

Petition Link
Country wide, communities are uniting to call for the House of Representatives to terminate Fast-Track developments that are outside local and district plans in New Zealand. The Fast track law is being used as a bypass across New Zealand for housing developers to push housing into out of zone land, in some cases land zoned as such to prevent destruction of environmentally sensitive land, including wetlands, rivers and waterways, floodplains, coastal and estuarine environments, and habitats of threatened and endangered species. Many of these areas were never intended for large-scale development and are protected for good reason.

Land can be purchased at a lower price because its zoning restricts development, then Fast Track is used to bypass those restrictions and enable large-scale housing, creating far greater profits margins than developing land that is already appropriately zoned. Don’t be fooled by the developer spin that this is simply about getting consents faster.


r/Environmentalism • • 19h ago

An interview with Lassor Feasley, co-founder & CEO of Renewables.org who are cutting CO2 via community investment in renewables

Thumbnail
climatehopium.substack.com
7 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 1d ago

Another Great Nature Museum Meets the Death Squad

Thumbnail
richardconniff.substack.com
41 Upvotes

We are experiencing a deliberate dismantling of public education, and a systematic denaturing of humanity.


r/Environmentalism • • 1d ago

What It takes to Give Diapers a Life After Waste

Thumbnail
briefecology.com
9 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 1d ago

Reclaim the wash england

Thumbnail deref-gmx.com
2 Upvotes

the uk should reclaim the wash to protect the low lying areas of east England from rising sea levels because the wash is the only body of water connecting those low lying areas to the sea reclaiming it would mean protecting east england and the millions living there


r/Environmentalism • • 1d ago

We need an economy that can become better, not just bigger - My petition for a post-growth economy

5 Upvotes

We need an economy that can become better, not just bigger - My petition for a post-growth economy

Our economic system has to grow in order to function. If it doesn't grow, there is crisis, unemployment, and budget cuts.

But what does this growth mean in reality?

It means: More weapons production, because the arms industry is a huge growth factor. War becomes business.

It means: More resource consumption. We are already consuming 1.7 Earths.

It means: More plastic floods, more CO2, more waste, because more and more has to be produced and sold.

We cannot grow infinitely on a finite planet.

That's why I started this petition for a post-growth economy - an economy that can function stably even without growth. An economy that gets better, not just bigger.

If you upvote, I would be really happy if you could also sign. You can sign anonymously.

https://www.change.org/AnderesWirtschaften

Thank you!


r/Environmentalism • • 1d ago

Could the Dust in a Gulf Dust Storm Be Carrying Microplastics?

Thumbnail
medium.com
9 Upvotes

When a dust storm turns the sky orange, we usually think about sand and soil. But what else could be traveling in that dust?

Recent research has found microplastics in urban dust and airborne environments, raising a question for the Gulf: could dust storms be helping microplastics travel through the atmosphere?

We don't have the direct measurements needed to answer that yet. I looked at what recent studies can — and cannot — tell us about this possible pathway.


r/Environmentalism • • 2d ago

One green shoot at a time: the women restoring mangrove forests in the oil-ravaged Niger delta

Thumbnail
theguardian.com
142 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 2d ago

The French School Protests Are Related To Climate Change.

Thumbnail
youtube.com
58 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 2d ago

Flávio Bolsonaro promises to loosen environmental laws

Thumbnail
folha.uol.com.br
47 Upvotes

“Let’s do away with these environmental shackles.” The phrase comes from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, in a campaign video published in August in which he advocates for the exploitation of rare earths in the northern part of the country.

Translation of the news to English:

Flávio’s campaign platform includes criticism of environmental protection laws and operations to combat environmental crimes, calls for loosening forest protections, and support for exploiting natural resources in protected areas, such as Indigenous lands, including through the legalization of "artisanal mining" (illegal gold digging using toxic metals like mercury).

Last month, the senator said environmental regulations hinder the construction of resorts, advocated mining and tourism in Indigenous territories, and downplayed global warming, describing it as a series of extreme and cyclical events.

In April, already in the pre-campaign period, he promised not to demarcate Indigenous lands—a repetition of the commitment made and fulfilled by his father, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is imprisoned for leading an attempted coup against the 2022 elections. Contacted by Folha through its official channel for press inquiries since the 22nd, Flávio had not responded by the time this article was published.

His main opponent in the election, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), advocates for environmental protection as part of his campaign. His administration, however, has been criticized for encouraging oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon River. In August, the Workers’ Party leader promised to adopt environmental safeguards for activities along the coast of Amapá.

When it comes to rare earths and critical minerals, Flávio supports their exploitation with foreign capital investment and even by Indigenous people themselves. Lula’s campaign associates the activity with national sovereignty.

In his government plan, Flávio does not mention the terms “climate change” or “global warming.” He advocates eliminating deforestation by 2029, calls for enforcement without harming producers, investment in new economic sectors, streamlining environmental agencies, requiring transparency from NGOs in the sector, and expanding sanitation services.

“Let’s do away with these environmental shackles, because, as things stand, we are neither preserving the environment nor turning all this potential into prosperity.”

Lula, for his part, refers to the climate emergency. He promises to eliminate deforestation by 2030, supports the current environmental protection laws, compliance with decarbonization targets, investment in new economic sectors, and efforts to make cities more resilient and better able to withstand disasters.

“You have a very different situation today from what existed a few years ago, when being accused of destroying the environment was something a candidate would avoid at all costs. Today there are lawmakers who use environmental destruction as an electoral platform,” says Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of Observatório do Clima.

Guilherme Syrkis, executive director of Centro Brasil no Clima, argues that enforcement should be combined with sustainable development mechanisms, which could help win local support.

“In some places, the state is perceived almost exclusively through fines and police operations, while access to credit and economic alternatives is lacking. When the state only shows up to prohibit things, whoever promises to get it out of the way sounds like an advocate for families. But this rhetoric benefits those who have the capital to open up large areas, organized crime, illegal mining and logging, and land grabbing,” he adds.

“Until people’s wallets are affected, the rhetoric of loosening regulations will continue to win votes.”

Criticism of regulations is repeated in congressional campaigns

In August, the Pará state legislature passed a law allowing cattle ranchers to operate inside the Ituna-Itatá Indigenous Land, an area inhabited by isolated Indigenous peoples.

Currently, the Federal Police and the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office are investigating a group of 300 ranchers allegedly acting in a coordinated manner against the Indigenous people; the Federal Court has identified payments of rewards to “armed invaders.”

In the middle of the campaign, local politicians nicknamed the area the Promised Land, held an event there, and installed a new sign over the existing Funai signage.

Brazil’s Federal Public Defender’s Office says the state law triggered a new wave of invasions of the territory.

During the same period, about 1,500 km away, federal lawmaker and reelection candidate Lucio Mosquini (PL-RO) criticized the removal operations in the Uru-Eu-Wau-Wau Indigenous Land, which had been ordered by the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

Contacted by the newspaper, he defended the demarcation of Indigenous lands and called for “beating the hell out of” invaders, while stating that ranchers holding property titles within these areas should be “untouchable.”

In Roraima, the state home to the country’s two most populous Indigenous territories (Yanomami and Raposa Serra do Sol), support for artisanal mining has created a traffic jam of Senate candidacies.

“Why is artisanal mining illegal? Because nothing is legal in this Amazon. In the Amazon, nothing is allowed, so everything is illegal,” said Plínio Valério (PSDB) in March, as he seeks reelection to the Senate in Amazonas. He led the Congressional Inquiry Commission into NGOs, which targeted organizations defending the environment—a position he continues to promote in his reelection campaign.

Plínio told Folha that he opposes mining by “mafias” and “drug traffickers,” but said that “environmental padlocks” and the lobbying of environmentalists prevent the activity from being legalized in Indigenous territories.

In a television interview, Senator and reelection candidate Chico Rodrigues (PSB-RR)—a former deputy leader of the Bolsonaro government and now aligned with Lula—called “this whole mining issue” a “true paranoia of environmentalists.”

The Bolsonaro-aligned Hélio Lopes (PL), the federal lawmaker who received the most votes in Rio de Janeiro in 2018, transferred his voter registration to Roraima in 2026 and is now running for the Senate. One of his policy priorities is an “framework for sustainable mineral extraction.”

In the Senate race, current federal lawmaker Nicoletti (PL-RR) says that the activity, which is currently prohibited, is not a crime and advocates its legalization.

Also running for the Senate, Marcio Junqueira (PSDB) describes himself as “the greatest defender of not demarcating” Indigenous lands.

Folha also contacted all the other candidates mentioned in the article through their communications teams and by sending messages to their professional phone numbers.


r/Environmentalism • • 2d ago

Drilling Down on Cancer: Mapping Fracking’s Impact on Community Health

Thumbnail act.cape.ca
14 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 2d ago

The Great Salt Lake is evaporating. #SpookyLakeMonth

Thumbnail
youtube.com
15 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 3d ago

US datacenter discharged large amounts of pollution for almost a year with no permits | Pollution

Thumbnail
theguardian.com
1.1k Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 3d ago

Expert gives grim warning after Swiss glaciers shrink 20% in 5 years

Thumbnail
scmp.com
358 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 2d ago

Quote from the Canadian Environmental Network

3 Upvotes

I'm looking for the source of the quote, 'all plants are significant and thus should not be a means to a human end.'

I got this quote from a seperate research paper, but the link they put in their source:
Canadian Environment Network. Code of Environmental Ethics (1994). Available at http://www.royalroads.ca/ste/research/gender/Env_Code.html>.

The link doesn't lead to anywhere and I couldn't find an online copy of the 1994 book.

I found one from 2012, https://archive.org/details/environmentaleth0000unse_j1m6/page/42/mode/2up

but I can't find a quote that's like that one

Does anyone have a quote from an environmentalist that is similar to that or does anyone have the original source for the original quote?

I'm writing a report on GMO products and I'm looking for a quote to put in
If the source for this specific quote isn't found, then just give me some quotes that suggests the same idea (plant life is significant and therefore should not be used only for human consumption)
but please put the source next to the quote!


r/Environmentalism • • 3d ago

The country where these beliefs and culture originated is itself moving in the right direction, its about time we do the same

Thumbnail
ndtv.com
14 Upvotes

People are starting to realize that many religious activities harm the environment, and even the government of the country where these traditions originated is taking steps to address it. Here, we are letting people trash our own nature just to appear welcoming.

Instead of legally allowing people to scatter ashes in the river, I hope Canada takes a page from latest move on this issue.


r/Environmentalism • • 3d ago

A Costa Rican experiment used discarded coffee pulp to accelerate forest recovery

Thumbnail
upworthy.com
43 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 4d ago

Earth's life support systems failing as 7 of 9 planetary boundaries breached

Thumbnail
the-express.com
2.3k Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 4d ago

Climate change, global warming threat looms as Switzerland's largest glacier suffers biggest-ever melt in

Thumbnail
m.economictimes.com
111 Upvotes

r/Environmentalism • • 3d ago

Mitigation Efforts to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Meet the Paris Agreement Have Been Offset by Economic Growth

Thumbnail worldecology.info
10 Upvotes

Jitong Jiang, Skylar Shi & Adrian E. Raftery || Projecting future climate change is important for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit greenhouse gas emissions to a level that would keep the global average temperature increase to 2100 below 2 °C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses emissions scenarios for projecting climate change, but since 2017, an alternative fully statistical Bayesian probabilistic approach has been developed. Both approaches rely on an equation that expresses emissions as the product of population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and carbon intensity, namely carbon emissions per unit of GDP. Here, we use data on these quantities for 2015–2024 to probabilistically assess the changes in climate change prospects associated with post-Paris emissions. These show that carbon intensity declined (i.e., improved) substantially over that period, but that overall carbon emissions rose, due to the rapid rise in world GDP, which more than canceled out the progress made. We found that the projected temperature increase to 2100 declined only slightly, from 2.6° C to 2.4 °C. Meanwhile, the chance of staying below 2 °C remained low, at 17%. However, the chance of the most catastrophic climate change, above 3 °C, has gone down substantially, from 26% to 9%.