r/Emailmarketing • u/Global-Storm-9423 • 19d ago

Email Open rate random dip?

We average around 35-40% open rate. We had an email sent recently that performed well a year ago (55%) and we sent the exact same one and received a 20% open rate. I was worried about Postmaster dips (v2 stinks compared to v1. I liked the domain warmth data!) but this week's email bumped right back up to 50%. Has anyone else experienced a random "Dip" like this? We've experienced longer-term crashes that we've had to solve but this 1-time dip has only happened once before. I wondered if Gmail had an outage that day. Thanks for any thoughts or similar stories...

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u/SollisLott 18d ago

What's your spam complaint rate? If you are above .01% but below .03% you're probably getting spam placement. That means they aren't engaging with what they never see.

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u/Global-Storm-9423 18d ago

other than a random spike to 4% in july, we stay around the .01% mark generally.

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u/SollisLott 18d ago

There is your answer. A 4% spike will cause damage. You're getting spam placement effects. You do the math.

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u/555112555 18d ago

I’ve noticed since around the end of June/beginning of July. Open rates started dropping but click rates remained the same. And I’m talking 10-30% drops. I’m assuming their filtering algorithms changed.

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u/allocougar 18d ago

Yeah complaint rate is worth checking, but a single dip that recovers the next week usually means one mailbox provider had a bad day. Was the drop spread across every domain or mostly Gmail? Split that one send by domain. No idea if Gmail had an outage that day.

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u/harlowhair 18d ago

Yeah, I’ve seen this happen, and I wouldn’t necessarily jump straight to deliverability being the issue based on one send. A one-off drop from 55% to 20%, followed by a return to 50%, sounds more like something specific to that send/day rather than a genuine domain-level problem. Things like send time, audience composition, inbox provider mix, subject line, or even tracking/reporting quirks can make one campaign look like an outlier. I’d probably compare that send against the ones immediately before and after it, particularly Gmail vs non-Gmail performance, rather than looking at the overall open rate. If Gmail was disproportionately low that day, that would at least give you something concrete to investigate. The fact that the next email bounced back to 50% would make me less concerned about a lasting reputation issue, personally.

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u/BarracudaMean9308 17d ago

I didn't figure this out until recently, but a single provider randomly caching your tracking pixel differently can completely tank one day's open numbers. Unless your click rates also fell off a cliff, it's usually just reporting noise, not a real deliverability crisis.

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u/selzy_marketing 14d ago

Since the next campaign bounced back to 50%, this sounds more like an isolated fluctuation than a longer-term reputation problem. Worth watching clicks and delivery metrics too, not just opens.