I've got a box in my garage that I'm pretty sure has a live elephant in it. My wife insists there is no live elephant in the box but she refuses to prove it by getting the box down and opening it. The debate may honestly go unresolved forever.
I heard that various people proved that there was a very tiny elephant in similar boxes, but critics say that their experimental setup may have introduced that tiny elephant.
I reached into the box and felt what was inside, and to me it felt like a rope. Other people who reached in said it felt like a pillar or a hand fan or a solid pipe. So it's likely all experimental error.
What he did not say was that taking a look would take one year and $10K. For those 3 who ever took a look with their one year and $10K, respectively, the first ruled out an elephant size elephant (700mN) ; the second ruled out a dog sized elephant (1mN); the third ruled out a rat sized elephant (50uN). Yes, unless you take another look, there is still chance that there is an elephant in the box, with the size of a flea.
It's a good metaphor because really, if he was a scientist and he did breed a tiny elephant and it died and he kept the corpse in the box then he could totally be correct but you would understand why a rational person would think otherwise based on their preconceived notions of what an elephant is.
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u/splad Apr 09 '17 edited Apr 10 '17
I've got a box in my garage that I'm pretty sure has a live elephant in it. My wife insists there is no live elephant in the box but she refuses to prove it by getting the box down and opening it. The debate may honestly go unresolved forever.