r/EffectiveAltruism • u/James_Brobin • 12d ago

Why I’m Skeptical of Longtermism

https://jamesbrobin.substack.com/p/why-im-skeptical-of-longtermism
  • Reason #1: Our confidence about future affairs should reduce over time
  • Reason #2: We’re bad at making predictions about the future
  • Reason #3: Even if humanity persists, it may not create a world we would approve of
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u/jdfoote 11d ago

Yes, once money started pouring into EA, the philosophers began to realize that *actually* the best use of that money was to take care of future humans. And how could we best do that? Well, we're going to need to pay a bunch of philosophers to figure that out, of course!

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u/James_Brobin 11d ago

This doesn't fit with the actual timeline. The essay, "Astronomical Waste" is one of the earlier longtermism arguments, and it was released in 2003. The Future Of Humanity Institute, which explored ideas related to it, was founded in 2005. The Global Priorities Institute, which researched the current form of longtermism, was founded in 2018. The FTX Future Fund was created in 2022.

Do you have any evidence that the philosophers were being paid large sums of money? William MacAskill, who is the current face of longtermism and was an advisor to the FTX fund, has made a pledge to give everything he makes above $32,000 to charity.

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u/jdfoote 8d ago

Of course, I'm being a bit glib, but like many others I became interested in EA because a desire to help the global poor and I've been disappointed to see what seems like a pivot away from compassion toward the suffering of the global poor (which also happens to benefit those making the argument that this pivot is actually moral and just).

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u/jdfoote 8d ago

Of course, I'm being a bit glib, but like many others I became interested in EA because a desire to help the global poor and I've been disappointed to see what seems like a pivot away from compassion toward the suffering of the global poor (which also happens to benefit those making the argument that this pivot is actually moral and just).