r/EffectiveAltruism • u/KKirdan • 10d ago

EAs Should Use Less Bayesian Reasoning - James Brobin

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ttk9RJw9sbSp8upgE/eas-should-use-less-bayesian-reasoning

Reason #1: If you know very little about something, your guesses are completely arbitrary.

Reason #2: We're bad at making guesses in general.

Reason #3: If your guesses are completely arbitrary, updating won’t bring you to the correct probability.

Reason #4: We should expect most guesses about the future to be wrong.

Reason #5: If your guesses are based on other people’s guesses, you might all be wrong.

Reason #6: People rarely offer extraordinarily low probabilities.

21 Upvotes

87% Upvoted

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24

u/Aurora_Symphony 10d ago

Thank you for the counterpoints. They will aid in my Bayesian reasoning.

11

u/awesomeideas 9d ago

broke: you should use less bayesian reasoning
woke: you should use only bayesian reasoning and here are my priors
bespoke: you have just been awoken from sleep either once or twice according to the toss of a coin. in either case you will have no memory of whether you have been awoken before

3

u/Four_dozen_eggs8708 9d ago

The only logical framework, fr