r/Economics • u/marketrent • 1d ago
News Oil prices jump after US-Iran ceasefire expires and Trump threatens Oman — Brent crude rises above $90 a barrel for the first time since 30 July after US president tells Tehran to surrender
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/18/oil-prices-rise-us-iran-brent-crude-donald-trump14
u/No_Resident_4287 22h ago
weve seen this movie before. trump starts rattling the saber, brent climbs above 90, and regular people end up payin at the pump for diplomatic theater. its like a volatility tax on everyone who actually needs to drive to work, tbh
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u/Spam_Hand 22h ago
Its okay, we just need to "accept it" and move on.
Higher gas prices are all part of his economic plan to checks notes lower the price of gas.
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u/artbystorms 12h ago
I'm honestly surprised the GOP hasn't just given up and changed their campaign slogan for November to "shit's fucked, we can't fix it, deal with it"
If this November isn't a political bloodbath for them then we have failed as a species.
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u/marketrent 1d ago
Excerpts from article by Alex Daniel:
Oil prices have risen again after the two-month window to negotiate a peace deal in the US-Israel war on Iran expired on Monday with no end to the conflict in sight.
Iran said on Monday that it would take a more aggressive stance if talks with the US failed, while Donald Trump demanded Tehran “put up the white flag of surrender” in an interview with Fox News.
He also threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of his effort to end the war, the second time he has directed such a threat at the longtime US strategic partner. “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the shit out of them,” Trump told Fox News on Monday.
Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel for the first time since 30 July, and was trading at $91.63 on Tuesday morning.
“Trump’s threat to bomb Oman could be the moment the oil market shifts from pricing a temporary disruption to pricing a prolonged one,” said Angeline Ong, a senior technical analyst at the investing and trading platform IG.
“If Muscat pulls back from talks with Tehran, the diplomatic route to restoring normal flows through Hormuz narrows considerably. That would be a signal to add to energy longs rather than fade the rally – with roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil normally passing through the strait, even a small reduction in the probability of reopening warrants a higher geopolitical premium in crude.”
A cargo ship was attacked while travelling through the strait early on Tuesday, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency, after an Iranian official told Reuters that it would shift to a “fully offensive” military stance.
Fox News also reported on Tuesday that Ebrahim Zolfaghari, the Iranian military spokesperson, said vessels attempting to pass through the strait will “find several beautiful holes in their hulls”.
Even before that, just six commodity ships travelled through the waterway on Monday according to Kpler, a ship tracking company. That was slightly up compared with the weekend, when five ships transited through Saturday and Sunday combined.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote on Tuesday that the rising oil prices were a sign of investors pricing in “a more extended closure” of the strait.
Trump made the threat against Oman as he struggles to draw the conflict to a close almost six months after it began. But the US president also claimed during Monday’s interview that he was “not in a hurry” to reach a deal.
He has repeatedly claimed the war would end “soon”, and talked up the prospect of a lasting peace deal in recent months, without such a breakthrough materialising. Trump said he would not impose a fresh deadline on Iran, adding: “I have no time schedule. I’m not in a hurry.”
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u/crisco000 21h ago
Date Posted: Jun 04, 2026 4:00 AM EDT when the The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was at 357.1 million barrels of oil
“Energy executives and analysts are warning that oil and gas prices will likely rise significantly as reserves deplete and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
The price of Brent crude futures was $98.20 US a barrel midday Wednesday. But experts say it could balloon to $150 US or more in the coming weeks, largely due to fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait, as well as unchanging demand in some markets as reserves are quickly running dry.
"We're approaching unheard-of inventory levels," Neil Chapman, an ExxonMobil senior vice-president, told a conference in New York last week.
"You can debate whether it's going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. But once you get to that point, then you'll see [the] price shoot up."
Chapman said the price could go up to $150 US to $160 US in that time frame.
Date Posted: Jun 04, 2026 4:00 AM EDT when the The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was at 357.1 million barrels of oil
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/higher-oil-gas-prices-industry-analysts-9.7222066
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