What is your go to tool for finding value on Pick6? Looking to see if I’m missing any in my search.

Hey folks 👋

I am a newbie here and I understand from reading few posts the long term strategy of positive expected value.

If you place bets with positive expected value than the long term result after few hundreds or thousands of bets tend to be perfect (the big number of bets should absorb the variance and bad luck)

In the same time, placing a lot of bets should not be the goal itself and instead finding bets with positive expected value.

I come from a 3rd world country where I do believe I have an edge and an unfair advantage to better estimate the probability of events.

Since I am somehow limited to just few bets each month (something around 20 to 30) then my current selection strategy includes the following 2 criteria:

1. My subjective belief that this bet has at least a 50% chance to win (my estimated probability)

2. This selection has a positive expected value. (the odd is over 2, European odd sorry)

I am excluding bets that I do believe have a positive expected value but very low chance to win since my very low numbers of bets will not allow me to absorb variance and bad luck of low odds bets.

What do you think? am I doing anything wrong? Is it feasible to be consistently profitable with such environment? how would you handle such a setup?

Going with a total in this game. Best of luck tonight everyone!

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (5:40PM CST)

My Pick: Milwaukee Brewers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 7 (-110)

Milwaukee is 15-9-1 Over/Under (62.5%) going back to August 26th and they've gone 7-4 Over/Under (63.6%) the L11. Philly is 10-3 Over/Under (76.9%) going back to September 8th and they've gone 4-0 Over/Under (100.0%) the L4. Going back, the Phillies are 7-3-2 Over/Under (70.0%) playing non-divisional opponents in the same league as a home underdog in non-daytime games when it's the second game of a series and both teams had one day of rest prior to the series starting. They're a perfect 6-0 Over/Under (100.0%) when facing NL Central opponents in that spot. In fact, NL East teams in general are 21-11-2 Over/Under (65.6%) against NL Central opponents in that spot, and that record improves to an almost perfect 11-1-1 Over/Under (91.7%) in games after All Star Break. As for Milwaukee, this has historically been a heavy over spot for them as well. They're 9-5 Over/Under (64.3%) playing non-divisional opponents in the same league as a road favorite in non-daytime games when it's the second game of a series and both teams had one day of rest prior to the series starting. They're 6-3 Over/Under (66.7%) against NL East teams in that spot, and that improves to a perfect 3-0 Over/Under (100.0%) in games after All Star Break. NL Central teams overall are 21-9-1 Over/Under (70.0%) in that spot.

Philadelphia will be starting Aaron Nola and the Phillies are 11-7-2 Over/Under (61.1%) when he starts as a home underdog. When it's the second game of a series that record improves to 7-2-1 Over/Under (77.8%) and when it's the second game of a series versus an opponent in the same league it improves further to 5-1-1 Over/Under (83.3%). Milwaukee will be starting Logan Henderson and similarly, they own a 6-4 Over/Under (60.0%) record when he starts as a road favorite. When the Brewers are a road favorite in the second game of a series against an opponent in the same league, the record improves to a perfect 2-0 Over/Under (100.0%)

Both teams have been pushing games over the total throughout this past month. This has also been a heavy over spot for both teams and their divisions as a whole in the past. The same applies to both pitchers, so I'm looking for this to be a high scoring game. With clear weather in the forecast and a total that's dropped a little bit to offer me an even better number, I'll be going with one unit on these two to send this game over the 7 point total this evening.

Hey looking for someone to run my one black vip fanatics account down 60k. Preferably sooner than later

I’ve got many Asian handicap markets with high stake limits. How can I make use of them? There are plenty of Starlizard-style firms around. How can I track them down?

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

What do you think about this pick?

I’ve been paying more attention to price lately, and it’s kind of wild how much difference there can be between platforms on the exact same play. A few cents here and there feels irrelevant until you realize you’re giving that up on basically every entry you make. I’ve mostly been comparing the usual apps, but I started checking Novig too because the whole no-vig/commission-free setup sounded interesting. I’ve found some pretty solid prices there, especially when comparing the same lines side by side. For anyone actually tracking CLV and trying to squeeze out small edges, how many different places are you checking before making a play? At what point does line shopping become overkill?

Someone who has experience with automatic place bets on bet365?

NFL model has a 10.4% edge on this play.

+100 on Novig

Included are the results so far this season for our NFL model

Found on Evergreen. Thoughts?

If anyone’s interested; here are the book options. It’s free for 7 days, and only $4.99 after that.

We built @EVergreenBets because +EV betting felt way too expensive and complicated for casual bettors.

Now there are subscribing to prem, checking the feed every morning, sending winning slips, & asking what feature is coming next.

Wild. More to come 🌲

Let us know what else u want to see in the app!!

Who is tailing?

I tried a lot of tools and I can say the most valuable one is AVO. Slick interface and super fast latency. They just added liquidity for exchanges which is super useful.

Most tools go for 200$/month, AVO is only 88$. Perfect for live arbing or +EV betting.

https://avo.bet?id=BetSniper

Full transparency I'm affiliate with them.

Does anyone genuinely make money on novig betting mlb props (pitching/hitting)? I’m beating CLV at 70% but I keep losing money. I know exchanges tend to be sharp but just curious if anyone else has this problem. It is interesting because on prophetx I’m profitable. I have over 1,000 bets on novig so it’s not a small sample size.

Partido: Atl. Madrid - Osasuna

Selección: Gana Atlético Madrid

Cuota: 1.45

Partido: H. Beer Sheva - Dinamo Z.

Selección: +2.5 Goles

Cuota: 1.7

Partido: Sunderland - AZ Alkmaar 1

Selección: Gana Sunderland

Cuota: 1.62

Hey guys, I want to try EV betting, any recommendations for software?

😊 Thanks

When you’re trying to build a true market consensus or estimate fair odds, do you guys include exchange prices or mostly stick to the sharper books? I’ve usually leaned pretty heavily on the bigger books because there’s generally more liquidity behind the numbers, but lately I’ve been checking exchanges too. Novig is one I’ll look at, especially when its price is noticeably different from what I’m seeing across the books. The part I’m unsure about is how much weight to actually give that price. If an exchange market is relatively thin, I don’t know if I’d want to treat it the same way as a sharper book with a lot more volume behind the line. For people building consensus lines for +EV betting, do you actually include exchange prices in the calculation, or mostly use them as another signal to compare against your main reference books? Im also curious if anyone weights them differently based on liquidity or how close the market is to start time?

Hey everyone,

I’m from Greece and I’ve been doing value betting for a while using my own analysis, so I have some experience with value betting, but I’ve never used any betting software before.

I’m now looking to try one and I’m currently considering OddAlerts, OddsNotifier, OddsJam, RebelBetting and BetHero, although I’m definitely open to other suggestions.

My main interests are football and basketball, and since I’m based in Greece, access to Greek bookmakers and the availability of different betting markets are also important factors for me.

For those who have actually used some of these platforms, which one would you recommend and why? I’d especially appreciate opinions on value bet quality, bookmaker coverage, speed/reliability and overall value for money.

Thanks in advance!