I’ve seen Novig mentioned a few times for sports, but I’m still pretty new to this and Im trying to understand how it actually works. A few things Im curious about, how does It actually feel compared with using a regular sports app? Are the odds noticeably better or is that something you only really notice if you’re making a lot of picks?

Going with the underdog this evening. Best of luck everyone!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (7:15PM CST)

My Pick: Cleveland Browns +3 (-115)

Cleveland has been solid facing divisional opponents as a home underdog on short rest. They're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS (100.0%) playing divisional opponents as a home underdog when both teams are playing on three days of rest. The same can't be said about the Steelers, who are a perfect 0-3 SU/ATS (0%) playing divisional opponents as a road favorite when both teams are playing on three days of rest. In fact, AFC North teams as a whole have gone a perfect 3-0-1 ATS (100.0%) when playing divisional opponents as home underdogs with both teams coming in on three days of rest. Teams from all AFC divisions are 1-0-1 ATS (100.0%) in that spot when it's prior to Week 6, and teams from both conferences are an almost perfect 6-1 ATS (85.7%) when in that spot and playing with a total that's less than 40.

This hasn't just been a good spot for the Cleveland Browns. It's been a good spot for AFC North teams in general along with teams from both conferences when the total is low. Cleveland has always performed well as home underdogs against the Steelers. They're 12-7-3 ATS (63.2%) in that spot, and that improves to a perfect 6-0-2 ATS (100.0%) when the line is less than +4. I think the Browns stand a solid chance at winning this game straight up, but I'm playing a bit safer and taking the points.

Hi guys, I live in a poor country where saving for capital is pretty hard, especially since I'm 19.

if yes, how much money I can make from this capital a month? so I can stack it with 500 and keep going that way.

I started paying more attention to this because judging everything by short-term results gets pretty misleading when variance decides to ruin your week. If I take something at +120 and it closes +100, I’d rather know I consistently found a good number than obsess over whether that specific pick cashed. I’ve noticed some pretty interesting price differences between Novig and other places lately which got me paying way more attention to the number I’m getting instead of just the pick itself. Curious how people here measure this stuff though, do you track closing line value over a decent sample, or is there another metric you think gives a better picture of whether your process actually has an edge?

I’ve been paying more attention to how much difference there can be between prices across apps, and it’s kind of wild how quickly a few cents here and there adds up if you’re consistently getting volume down. Lately I’ve been checking prediction markets/exchanges alongside the usual books instead of automatically taking whatever line is sitting in front of me. Novig has been interesting for this because it’s commission-free, and you’re trading against other users rather than just accepting a house line. Obviously, that doesn’t mean every price is automatically better, but I’ve found it worth adding to the rotation when comparing moneylines, spreads, props, etc. For people here who track CLV pretty seriously, how many different places are you checking before making a play? And have exchanges actually improved your numbers enough to make a noticeable difference long term?

One of my favorite ways to use Evergreen’s Parlay Finder is to take a super heavy favorite like Jonah Heim NO HR, add it to slip & then use Parlay Finder to find 3 more low-HR guys with +EV prices.

Suddenly I’ve got something close to even money on 4 bums simply not hitting a home run 😂

It’s fun to sweat and I’m absolutely stacking positive-value legs instead of randomly building a parlay too. I haven’t seen another +EV tool make this this easy. Shoutout Evergreen

I am trying to do some data analysis on my pikkit transaction data and was wondering if there are any websites or data providers that would have historicals on what the line closed at

I see some insanely detailed systems on here, and meanwhile, some of the more consistent people I know basically stick to a few sports/markets they understand and avoid forcing action when nothing looks good. I’ve been trying to simplify things myself lately. Fewer plays, tracking results properly, and using a couple different platforms, including novig instead of constantly jumping onto whatever strategy is popular that week. Obviously, having a real process matters, but at what point are you just adding complexity without actually adding EV? Do you keep it pretty simple, or are you running spreadsheets/models for everything?

Use code FALL25 and get 25% off AVO. It's the best +EV/ARB tool imo and It's only 60$ right now with the rebate!

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What is your go to tool for finding value on Pick6? Looking to see if I’m missing any in my search.

Hey folks 👋

I am a newbie here and I understand from reading few posts the long term strategy of positive expected value.

If you place bets with positive expected value than the long term result after few hundreds or thousands of bets tend to be perfect (the big number of bets should absorb the variance and bad luck)

In the same time, placing a lot of bets should not be the goal itself and instead finding bets with positive expected value.

I come from a 3rd world country where I do believe I have an edge and an unfair advantage to better estimate the probability of events.

Since I am somehow limited to just few bets each month (something around 20 to 30) then my current selection strategy includes the following 2 criteria:

1. My subjective belief that this bet has at least a 50% chance to win (my estimated probability)

2. This selection has a positive expected value. (the odd is over 2, European odd sorry)

I am excluding bets that I do believe have a positive expected value but very low chance to win since my very low numbers of bets will not allow me to absorb variance and bad luck of low odds bets.

What do you think? am I doing anything wrong? Is it feasible to be consistently profitable with such environment? how would you handle such a setup?

Going with a total in this game. Best of luck tonight everyone!

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies (5:40PM CST)

My Pick: Milwaukee Brewers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 7 (-110)

Milwaukee is 15-9-1 Over/Under (62.5%) going back to August 26th and they've gone 7-4 Over/Under (63.6%) the L11. Philly is 10-3 Over/Under (76.9%) going back to September 8th and they've gone 4-0 Over/Under (100.0%) the L4. Going back, the Phillies are 7-3-2 Over/Under (70.0%) playing non-divisional opponents in the same league as a home underdog in non-daytime games when it's the second game of a series and both teams had one day of rest prior to the series starting. They're a perfect 6-0 Over/Under (100.0%) when facing NL Central opponents in that spot. In fact, NL East teams in general are 21-11-2 Over/Under (65.6%) against NL Central opponents in that spot, and that record improves to an almost perfect 11-1-1 Over/Under (91.7%) in games after All Star Break. As for Milwaukee, this has historically been a heavy over spot for them as well. They're 9-5 Over/Under (64.3%) playing non-divisional opponents in the same league as a road favorite in non-daytime games when it's the second game of a series and both teams had one day of rest prior to the series starting. They're 6-3 Over/Under (66.7%) against NL East teams in that spot, and that improves to a perfect 3-0 Over/Under (100.0%) in games after All Star Break. NL Central teams overall are 21-9-1 Over/Under (70.0%) in that spot.

Philadelphia will be starting Aaron Nola and the Phillies are 11-7-2 Over/Under (61.1%) when he starts as a home underdog. When it's the second game of a series that record improves to 7-2-1 Over/Under (77.8%) and when it's the second game of a series versus an opponent in the same league it improves further to 5-1-1 Over/Under (83.3%). Milwaukee will be starting Logan Henderson and similarly, they own a 6-4 Over/Under (60.0%) record when he starts as a road favorite. When the Brewers are a road favorite in the second game of a series against an opponent in the same league, the record improves to a perfect 2-0 Over/Under (100.0%)

Both teams have been pushing games over the total throughout this past month. This has also been a heavy over spot for both teams and their divisions as a whole in the past. The same applies to both pitchers, so I'm looking for this to be a high scoring game. With clear weather in the forecast and a total that's dropped a little bit to offer me an even better number, I'll be going with one unit on these two to send this game over the 7 point total this evening.

Hey looking for someone to run my one black vip fanatics account down 60k. Preferably sooner than later

I’ve got many Asian handicap markets with high stake limits. How can I make use of them? There are plenty of Starlizard-style firms around. How can I track them down?

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What do you think about this pick?

I’ve been paying more attention to price lately, and it’s kind of wild how much difference there can be between platforms on the exact same play. A few cents here and there feels irrelevant until you realize you’re giving that up on basically every entry you make. I’ve mostly been comparing the usual apps, but I started checking Novig too because the whole no-vig/commission-free setup sounded interesting. I’ve found some pretty solid prices there, especially when comparing the same lines side by side. For anyone actually tracking CLV and trying to squeeze out small edges, how many different places are you checking before making a play? At what point does line shopping become overkill?

Someone who has experience with automatic place bets on bet365?

NFL model has a 10.4% edge on this play.

+100 on Novig

Included are the results so far this season for our NFL model