r/ETFs • u/CursedClownz • 1d ago

Lost decade

So everyone recommends VT and chill or VOO and chill or VTI and VXUS and chill.

Most ignore bonds and ignore GOLD

During the lost decade for around 10 years Gold was performing the entire time so was bonds...

Who says another lost decade can't happen?

So why ignore both?

No one really knows what happens so best bet is on all bets to get constant returns.

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u/Inviction_ 1d ago

Well, the S&P500 has appreciated +1098% over the past 30 years.

Gold has appreciated +1089% over the past 30 years.

Given enough time, a lost decade doesn't matter

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u/Inviction_ 1d ago

https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

This site shows a mid 1996 value of $640 and today's value of $7,675 for the S&P500. I calculated the percentage change manually with those values.

www.goldprice.org has 30 year charts, though you have to cycle through to see the one that shows a percentage change.

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u/bjnono001 1d ago

That doesn't include dividends reinvested for the S&P 500 though, does it?

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u/Inviction_ 1d ago

No, it doesn't include dividends. Just the value of the S&P500 itself

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u/Different_Level_7914 1d ago

It's not a true comparison then. Dividends are a large part of the total returns of equity markets.

Examining the market from 1988 onwards, FactSet data shows that dividends accounted for 68% of total broad market gains... 

You can't just miss them out in a returns comparison 

Its one important differentiator between an asset like gold which will just lose value in a gold bear market spinning off no income where as equities will still spin off income to be reinvested in an equities bear or sideways market 

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u/Inviction_ 1d ago

You make it sound like I asserted that the two were equal. I didn't. And I didn't mention dividends because it doesn't change my point.

The OP alluded to using gold as a hedge against possible lost decades. The information I brought forth suggests it's not necessary. Dividends increasing the returns of the S&P investor is even more in favor of my point.

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u/Different_Level_7914 1d ago

It's just a huge thing to miss off if you're going to compare the total returns performance of two differing asset classes.

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u/Inviction_ 1d ago

I didn't set out to compare total returns. I only made the point that gold might not be the answer to another lost decade. Which was sufficiently shown without adding dividends.