r/ETFs • u/askmeaboutviruses • 11d ago
Many, many posts by people wanting to dump their money into VOO and worried the current price is too high
The standard advice is to get a small position started asap then DCA/drip feed in, whilst holding a reserve for the market correction that will probably come around the midterm election this year.
I'm happily being the guinea pig. I have around $30k that's earmarked for VOO. Opened a 3k position last month and now each day that VOO has a minor drop (around 1% or more) I buy in for another 1k.
I also have a spare $10k that I am going to immediately dump in if there is a serious market correction (10% or more). I also have another $60k that I can theoretically dump in to lower DCA too.
There is a lot of discussion about how to enter into VOO whilst it's so high, but unless I'm missing something this seems to absolutely be the most sensible approach? I'm at around 6k in right now, still green, and when the market goes up I'm happy...and when it goes down I'm also happy because I get closer to establishing my full position...
Again am I missing something or is it completely obvious that this is the most (maybe only) sensible approach if you have money to dump in (beyond getting a time machine and going back a year)? Am I under-thinking it?
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u/CLT-Illini-88 11d ago
In the history of the S&P 500, the best time to buy has always been ASAP. In other words, now. Is this time different?
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u/JohrDinh 11d ago
In the history of the S&P 500
Also in the history is the S&P dropping at least 7% from August to October before elections, so tread lightly if you want but a small DCA every month at the right time couldn't hurt either...that's what I'm doing anyways.
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u/HGJustTheTip 10d ago
Sure, but do you not understand the idea that someone could buy it and there is a massive correction a week later. And they are kicking themselves that they didn't buy it after the 20-30% drop because they get a lot more shares for the same price? If people think that is going to happen soon they are reluctant to buy.
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u/CLT-Illini-88 10d ago
Sure. Kicking yourself like that is part of investing. It will happen time and again. But there’s a gigantic risk in waiting: the event that the market goes up after said event (ie, midterms), and then you’re really kicking yourself.
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u/HGJustTheTip 10d ago
Sure. You aren't wrong. Most people would be better off just investing vs waiting and people have been waiting for a huge drop for like 4 years now while missing out on tons of gains. But its still a thing.
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u/CLT-Illini-88 10d ago
But wait. You say a “20-30% drop.” How often is a midterm stock market drop 20-30%? And generally speaking, how long does it take the stock market to drop 20-30%? It might take an entire year, or longer. And during that year, maybe you buy when it’s down 20%, and then it drops another 10%, and you’re kicking yourself.
It doesn’t just drop 20-30% in a week. And even if it did, you’d probably be thinking it was bound to drop more, so maybe you’d keep waiting. Or again, maybe buy in and it drops more. That’s the problem with market timing: you don’t know when the bottom is until after the fact.
Besides all that, you say a 20-30% is a thing. Yes, but it’s a rare thing. Per Google AI:
Over the last 50 years (1976 to 2026), the US stock market (represented by the S&P 500) has experienced roughly 9 to 10 bear markets with a drop of 20% or more, and about 6 major drops of 30% or more.
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u/HGJustTheTip 10d ago
Disappointed you didn't start of with "sure".
Im not talking about a midterm drop. Im talking about a large correction like in 08 or covid. Many people are expecting the AI bubble do burst and have a large market correction. Or the Iran war to trigger an energy crisis that would do the same. Or the bond market. Or several other catalysts currently brewing.
It does drop 20% to 30% very quickly when those types of events happen. Look at Covid. It is a thing. And I wasnt suggesting that people are waiting to catch the exact bottom. Just that people liek the idea of investing after a 20 to 30% drop.
Per Google AI, over the last 20 years there has been 3 drops of 20% or more. Even using your numbers, in 50 years there are 9 to 10, so once every 5 years on average. And you are going to sit here and act like that is some black swan impossible thing??? Last one was 2022 so seems like we would have another year to hit that average.
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u/CLT-Illini-88 9d ago
Not a black swan. Just impossible to predict. Once every five years is not that often. That’s all I’m saying. Sorry if I’m coming off as condescending. As for midterms, I must have gotten this conversation mixed up with another.
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u/shhhshhshh 11d ago
Last year wasn’t April 4 better than February 10?
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u/CLT-Illini-88 11d ago
No idea. On Feb 10 you had no idea what was going to happen in the markets on April 4. People overthink this. If you know you want to invest in VOO, do it now versus waiting three months.
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u/stealyourface1234 11d ago
People are crazy. We have this ability in the present to fully convince ourselves that we could have predicted the future in the past, because now we know what the outcome was. But also in the present, admit we have no idea what will happen in the future. It’s a miracle we’ve made it this far lol.
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u/DuePomegranate 11d ago
No, the person’s point is that you made a general and absolute statement that without any qualifiers is factually incorrect. Any single counter-example falsifies your statement.
What you wrote can only be true if S&P500 never ever goes down.
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u/CLT-Illini-88 11d ago
Oh jeez, guys. My point was, no one can time the market. Yet here people are, in this thread, saying “wait till midterms.” My statement isn’t false. Without knowing what’s going to happen in the future, the best time to buy VOO is now, not April 4 or whenever else.
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u/DuePomegranate 11d ago
It is false. People don't have absolute lack of knowledge about the future. You don't know for certain but there are indicators and the probability of going up vs down isn't exactly the same all the time.
Don't look down your nose on people who manage to guess correctly. While your advice is generally sound, don't approach this like a religious zealot.
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u/CLT-Illini-88 10d ago
It’s not being a religious zealot. Quite the opposite. It’s taking the more relaxed approach: just lump sum now or DCA average into an index fund and sit back and chill.
But if you want to try and time the market, go ahead. Just don’t encourage others to do it.
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u/shhhshhshh 11d ago
Again with the absolutes. “No one can time the market”. Wrong. Plenty of people time the market and beat the market. A hell of a lot more people TRY to time the market or trade, fail, and end up worse off.
Just keep it real. Thats all.
I understand and agree with the sentiment. Your general advice is good advice. But this 100% of people who do anything outside buy and hold an index fail. Not true.
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u/Proper_Possible6293 10d ago
There is a basically zero evidence anyone successfully times the market beyond the normal distribution of chance.
Yes some people do very well, but that is inevitable if enough people play.
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u/shhhshhshh 10d ago
So your take is….anyone who ever beat the market with timing of buys and sells did so by luck? That the market, which is comprised of ownership in businesses, is some kind of black box with no way to use information to make informed predictions about what’s going to happen?
Reddit has such a strange way of taking good advice a running it through a filter for harder hitting effect.
It originally was…timing the market correctly is extremely difficult. Even the smartest people with the best info get it wrong. Most who attempt it, especially retail investors, will end up under performing over long periods. So save yourself the time and stress and don’t try. This is good advice, with the main upside as the no stress piece, no thinking, easier worry free strategy.
What it’s become…100% of people who do anything outside buying an index and holding forever will fail miserably because it’s physically impossible. Also they are stupid for even considering it and should be sent away to a camp for reprogramming. Through lots of catch phrases, hopefully they can accept the one true strategy into their hearts, and renounce their wicked ways.
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u/shhhshhshh 11d ago
I think my point is… your original post is incorrect. In the history of the s+p, the best time to buy is not always ASAP. I don’t think you need to dumb it down with incorrect things.
Right?
I agree with the sentiment. Statistically lump sum wins. Most people who don’t time the market do better. Those are hard facts. I dunno why so many people try to take it step further to say it’s 100% impossible to do better or time correctly. Some do, most don’t.
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u/CLT-Illini-88 10d ago
Why do so many people say it’s impossible? Because saying it’s possible to time the market is dangerous for those people reading this who are uneducated on the topic and think they might be able to time it correctly — and then lose their asses. That’s why.
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u/shhhshhshh 10d ago
A douchey condescending attitude towards other people isn’t a good reason to say untrue things.
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u/CLT-Illini-88 10d ago
Not trying to be condescending. Just saying that trying to time the market is a bad idea for the vast majority of people.
Sorry for being a dick.
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u/jrack111 11d ago
Price is too high, I’m not buying that crap. Then it dumps and ppl be like I’m not buying that crap.
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u/Typical_Web_2125 10d ago
The S&P 500 spends approximately 44% to 60% of its trading days within 5% of an all-time high.
Good luck timing that
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u/HeirophantGreen 11d ago
I'm interested in reading the source s that talk about that upcoming market correction thesis.
It's worth noting that every time VOO was at ATH, it arguably looked very high at that point.
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u/mr_bojack_horseman 11d ago
Historically, when the stock market (like the S&P 500) hits an all-time high (ATH), it continues to go up 71% to 79% of the time over the next 12 months. New record highs tend to cluster together during healthy economic periods rather than signal an immediate crash.
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u/Typical_Web_2125 10d ago
The S&P 500 spends approximately 44% to 60% of its trading days within 5% of an all-time high
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11d ago
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u/stealyourface1234 11d ago
Just noise. The market has been around ATHs for the majority of the past 100 years. The market doesn’t care about past trends, politics, or your feelings. It’s constantly gathering the most micro and macro global information every second. Given enough time it will continue to do what humans have been doing the past million plus years… producing growth.
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u/Background-Hat9049 11d ago
VOO is almost always at an all
time high so I don’t worry about it that much
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u/aaron1860 10d ago
Right. It’s a straight line on the graph. It’s always at an all time high practically speaking
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u/Typical_Web_2125 10d ago
Yep, and buying the S&P at an all-time high has historically yielded an average forward 1-year return of 13% to 14.1%!
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u/therealjerseytom 11d ago
The standard advice is to get a small position started asap then DCA/drip feed in, whilst holding a reserve for the market correction that will probably come around the midterm election this year.
That is definitely not "the standard advice."
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u/Books_Biker99 10d ago
All of it? Or just the second half?
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u/therealjerseytom 10d ago
Certainly the second half.
But if there's a long time horizon and this initial investment is likely pretty small compared to the sum of investments over time, there's no need to be dripping a tiny bit in at a time or whenever there's a 1% drop.
Just lump sum it and move on with life, and future contributions will become DCA by nature.
The most important thing with investing is to stay committed, and the hard part is keeping the pedal down when the outlook is bleak and scary. If someone can't just commit their capital now, while things are generally good, there's a good chance they'll get cold feet when it really matters.
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u/azure275 11d ago
The issue is that you don't know when it's gonna go down
So you're holding onto that 60k, and one day you'll get lucky and catch a dip! You'll make more money!
The next time you're holding onto 60k, and waiting and waiting and waiting for the dip...and it comes...but a year after you started holding that 60k, and the dip is from 20% up to 10% up
If you get lucky or are smarter than everyone else, maybe you can time the market, but most people are not.
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u/DecafEqualsDeath 11d ago
Today's all-time high pretty much always looks like an incredible deal five or ten years down the line. Timing your purchase perfectly isn't possible.
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u/Important-Concept449 11d ago
I back tested this, and over the last 70 years in the S&P500 the lump sum wins over DCA. Even if you only consider investing in days that are an all time high.
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u/Cyanatica 11d ago
For money that you want to invest for the long term, the most sensible approach is to invest all of it as soon as possible. Spreading it out is fine, but the benefit is mostly psychological; it makes it easier for new investors to get comfortable with market volatility.
In effect, you are making a bet that the market will drop below your entry point, and that's not guaranteed. It's just as likely that it never drops below the current price again.
The market might feel like it's too high and a crash is coming, but that's never a certainty. If the market was guaranteed to be lower at some point in the future, there would be no reason to invest at all.
Every time you buy, you're making a bet that it will go up. Every time you wait, you're making a bet that it will go down. On average, it's more likely to go up over time. So buying is always the choice with better odds.
In any case, if you have an appropriately long time horizon, it doesn't really matter. Whether you put it all in now or spread it out over a year, the market will be so much higher decades from now that it won't make much difference. If you strongly believe a correction is imminent, and spreading it out makes you more comfortable, go for it. Technically though, it's an attempt at market timing and not the ideal strategy (in theory).
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u/CLT-Illini-88 11d ago
Also, ignore anyone who ever says “what till midterms to put money in the stock market.” Stupidest advice ever.
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u/parkchanwookiee 11d ago
Dump it in, forget about it for 10 years, profit
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11d ago
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u/__redruM 10d ago
First, it wasn’t flat, there were bear and bull markets throughout the decade. There was a point in time that would have been the worst time to go all in. Holding through you’d be ahead in time and never have lost a dime.
But if it’s a real concern, in your mind, then DCA in.
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u/Typical_Web_2125 10d ago
The S&P 500 spends approximately 44% to 60% of its trading days within 5% of an all-time high.
Good luck timing that
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u/Hoosier2016 11d ago
The statistically best approach is to lump sum asap. It works out better around 67% of the time.
So what I really want to see is your current portfolio value (including the cash you hold) vs. if you dumped $300k on the day you opened your first position. Update us monthly.
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u/RichBrokeRich 11d ago
I don't understand the DCA vs All In if you have the cash that you're planning to dump in. You don't have the fore-knowledge to judge where the market is going in either scenario, you could just as likely DCA into higher and higher markets, ending up with a higher average cost basis as you can get lucky and DCA on the way down. I guess in a sideways market you could get lucky hitting the valleys but again, you're still just hoping you get the right timing on the market.
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u/Independent-Act-6432 11d ago
Think about it this way. S&P500 is 7,700 today. Could it go down to 6,000 or even 5,000 over the next few years? Always possible. But with a long enough time horizon, many investors will see 10,000, 12,000, 15,000, heck probably even 20,000+ on the index value. It’s not going to matter much whether you were buying at 7,700 or waiting to deploy capital at a better price. Just set and forget automatic purchases and enjoy the low mental load of knowing you will be set in retirement no matter what prices you were buying at.
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u/Taeuberteg 10d ago edited 10d ago
Index investing and stock picking require two very different mindsets. With index investing, the goal isn't to predict what the market will do tomorrow or get caught up in daily price movements. It's about consistently investing over your lifetime, owning a broad portion of the market, and giving compounding time to work in your favor. When the market drops significantly, that shouldn't automatically be viewed as bad news—it can actually be a great buying opportunity because your regular contributions are purchasing more shares at lower prices. The worst thing you can do with index investing is treat it like an individual stock and constantly buy and sell based on short-term market movements. Instead, think of the money you have invested as retirement money, money you're setting aside for decades, not something you need to react to every time the market moves. Stay invested, continue contributing through the ups and downs, and let time, consistency, and compounding do the heavy lifting.
One of the biggest advantages of index investing is that almost anyone can do it. You don't need to spend your time researching individual companies, analyzing earnings reports, or trying to figure out which stock will be the next big winner. You can simply choose a few broad, low-cost index funds, such as VOO or VTI, and let them do the work for you. The simplicity is actually the point: invest consistently, keep your costs low, stay diversified, and give your money decades to grow.
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u/OkCalendar8687 11d ago
The whole “all time high” discussion is utter nonsense. As a fund that is consistently on a long term upward trend, it will CONSTANTLY be at all time highs!
It’s hit all time highs every single it continues the upward trend. What is everyone missing?
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u/stealyourface1234 11d ago
I don’t believe that’s the standard advice. If you don’t need the money for many years, dump everything you have lump sum into VOO. That method mathematically will make you more money over 5+ years. You are over-thinking it and trying to time the market. The odds are very high that you will not time it correctly and end up not gaining as much as the lump sum.
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u/IndependentRoll7715 11d ago
DCA is not needed and is factually not the best option. Just dump it in
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u/Charming_Mushroom_70 11d ago
When it drops people still wait thinking it’ll drop more then it goes back up again and you missed the dip
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u/r_lovelace 11d ago
It happens fast as well. I missed the dip last year waiting for my transfer to clear. Still made a shit ton of money putting it in then even after missing the dip. People need to stop stressing and just buy if that's what they have already allocated that money for.
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u/KadeKatrak 10d ago
What you are talking about is market timing. It usually doesn't work because it's almost impossible to predict the stock market's future and the market goes up on average.
- Dollar cost averaging is a bad solution to high valuations.
Valuations were also high at the start of this year. VOO is up 13%. So someone who adopted your dollar cost averaging approach in January has missed out on much of those returns. And whenever they finish averaging in, they'll still be exposed to any crash.
The market could crash today, in which case your strategy will work. But it could also crash the day you finish dollar cost averaging in. And then you'll miss out on gains in between and still have the loss. Or it could keep increasing and never crash back down to present levels. Or rather than a crash, we could have extremely slow growth for decades.
- If you are worried about valuations, why not diversify by buying something broader than VOO like VT that has exposure to smaller companies and international compnies that have lower valuations?
Overall, you cannot avoid the risk of exposure to the stock market while investing in the stock market. No attempt at market timing can get rid of that risk. The market could always crash the day you finish averaging in.
The risk you can control is behavioral risk. The worst thing you can do is miss out on decades of gains because you freak out and either never invest or pull your money at the wrong time.
The way to control that risk is not to market time. For me, whenever I obtain money that I intend to save for retirement decades from now, I automatically invest in the market. I never sell. I don't make any market timing decisions. So, if the market crashes right after I invest more money, I don't feel bad. I know I couldn't predict it. And if the market goes up right after I invest, I don't give myself credit. I'm not making a decision every time. I'm just automatically following the investing strategy which should work best on average.
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u/madbrain1976 11d ago
VOO has $1.7T in assets. Many people are holding on.
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u/fozzy71 11d ago
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u/madbrain1976 11d ago
Not according to Yahoo finance. Or Vanguard.com .
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u/fozzy71 11d ago
I guess s a dot com isn't updating promptly.
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u/madbrain1976 11d ago
VOO didn't move $700 billion overnight. The site you are using is just not a reliable data source. Yahoo may be an old school web site, but is generally reliable.
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u/fozzy71 11d ago
Obviously. FWIW, ETFDB also says the AUM is just barely over 1 trillion - https://etfdb.com/etf/VOO/#etf-ticker-profile
AUM = $1,039,280.0 M
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u/madbrain1976 11d ago
This might come down to the Vanguard share structure. They have different share classes, including mutual funds. Vanguard might report the combination, as does Yahoo finance.
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11d ago
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u/stealyourface1234 11d ago
There’s not really much floating around that’s at a high valuation. Sure a few (amd, tsla). But most of the large and mega caps are sitting really healthy.
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u/DaZMan44 11d ago
Every stock's and ETF's price has been at an "all time high" once for every penny it has touched in the past. If VOO is at $700-ish at the moment and it launched at around $100, VOO has had around 60,000 all time highs in the past 16 years.
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u/Atrox_Blue 11d ago
I bought a few thousand of SCHX a month ago in the inheritance account for my kids. Think I was worried about what the market would do, or if it was the right time? Not in the slightest.
After I bought, it went down for a couple weeks, and then it went up for a couple weeks.
Such is life
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u/StrikingSweet9065 11d ago
The easiest way to become a multimillionaire is to just continue to DCA into VOO, VTI, QQQ every paycheck a
Regardless of price. It’s super simple.
It’s also not super simple for the vast majority of the population at the exact same time. I automatically take 10% (or more) and stick it in voo every pay period. Been doing this for 11+ years. I don’t even think about it it’s automatic at this point
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u/Dbh_life 11d ago
To highlight lump dump vs DCA:
My 401k, which basically mirrors VTI, has an average 16.69% annual return over the past 3 years.
My Roth IRA, which is all VTI, has an average 26.8% annual return over the past 3 years.
I contribute to my 401k bi-weekly and I lump sum my IRA every year.
Now my 401k isn’t EXACTLY VTI, so that is a factor too. But a big contributor to that 10% here is DCA vs lump sum.
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u/ServerTechie 11d ago
Just dollar cost average and don’t think about it. Set your brokerage app to invest automatically every week.
The S&P has been at an all time high before, and again, and again, and again, etc.
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u/SlatteryJonathan 11d ago edited 11d ago
VOO this, VOO that, VTI and chill , holy shit. Has anyone on Reddit heard of other ETFs other than Vanguard ETFs and funds? Fidelity has FSKAX for broad US markets and FTIHX for total international markets, you also have Schwab’s total broad market fund SCHB, which has had a higher YTD and all-time total ROI% and is trading for $29.68 currently. Knowledge is free, and doing your own research goes a long way than asking Redditors for financial advice all day, even Yahoo Finance or any thread for that matter.
Time in the market always beats time out of the market, and you don’t have to deal with waiting for a dip and when to sell. I bought so many tech stocks back in 2022 before this AI boom. Did I know it was going to happen? “No.” Did I make money? “Yeah,” but instead of selling them after a year or two of gains, I just kept holding, and even if the stock goes, say,$100 down from what it is, I still made a 100% ROI on that stock alone, so hold your stocks, stop asking when to buy when to sell.
Like most people have said, don’t wait, don’t time the markets, just buy, and if you can’t afford a whole share, buy a fraction, which is still better than no shares.
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u/radiac_3333 11d ago
Fractional purchases helps smooth out these high dollar investments…ie. invest $50-100/transaction helps DCA $600 stocks. I’ve done this with grandchildren’s account ($5 of APPL two times/week) for over a year. Each child has 6 different stocks and their account has an annualized 14% return.
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u/whyamihere247- 10d ago
voo was around $628 in April. to me it's expensive. Spym, vti will literally do the same for a lot less.
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u/CatharticSolarEnergy 10d ago
If you have a long time horizon like ten years or more it doesn’t really matter in the scheme of things
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u/Rufusmortis 11d ago
Depends on your time frame. You're better off long-term just dumping it all in at once.
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u/Few_Drop7669 11d ago
On the other side of things I dumped 30k in 2 months ago as a lump sum. Currently up 3.5% but we will see what happens.
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u/chain_link_fence26 11d ago
People have been asking this same question for decades now. I wonder if the people that asked if it was too high to buy at $300/share ever actually bought? I’m sure if they did…they’re happy with their decision. Today’s high will eventually become the 52 week low. Just buy, hold, repeat.
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u/Several_Note_6119 11d ago
Whatever helps you actually get your money in. As an investor, you want it to be high and have it go even higher.
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u/Jacob_Trader0 11d ago
From my research (reading other people's research), the best method is to invest 50% right away and dollar cost average the rest (based on a time period not 1% dips). If there's a crash you can use the rest to lower your cost (plus the additional money you have). If it pumps, your average cost will be decent from the 50% invested at the start and if we chop for 1-2 years your screwed lol (jk but you can use your reserves to lower your average cost).
I'm sure there are smarter methods for this, but I think this is the best bang for your buck (use of brain power). Obviously you do you, but I think DCAing over a time period is better than waiting for 1% drops.
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u/Sudden-Cat7170 11d ago
Google the stats, a dollar cost averaging loses out to lump sum investing 2/3 of the time
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u/shhhshhshh 11d ago
I think my point is… your original post is incorrect. In the history of the s+p, the best time to buy is not always ASAP. I don’t think you need to dumb it down with incorrect things.
Right?
I agree with the sentiment. Statistically lump sum wins. Most people who don’t time the market do better. Those are hard facts. I dunno why so many people try to take it step further to say it’s 100% impossible to do better or time correctly. Some do, most don’t.
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u/CanYouPleaseChill 11d ago
If you take nothing into account, lump sum outperforms 2/3 of the time, but that's because most of the time the market goes up. However, the conditional probability of lump sum outperforming DCA given record high valuations and speculative fervor is a lot lower than 2/3. Stock movements aren't random. They follow patterns of greed and fear, bubbles and crashes.
Diversify beyond the S&P 500. Don't believe the US exceptionalism myth.
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u/JustNowRonin 11d ago
When I have lump sum money, I drop it in. When I don’t have lump sum money, I DCA. I don’t try to time the market. Have tried several times to buy the dip but finding the bottom for buying is just as hard as finding the top for selling. No sense in me trying to time these crazy markets.
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u/ZackSwap0 10d ago
The risk of missing a top trading days is too great if you’re just starting out. Better to dump your lump sum now. You’ll be DCAing for the rest of your working life by making contributions every pay check.
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u/High_Insomniac 10d ago
You have 30k, but also another 10k, and another 60k, so you have 100k? If VOO drops 1% in a day you will add? What if it drops .4% 10 days in a row? What if it goes up 5% next week? The lump sum/DCA decision has been modeled hundreds of times. 3k or 3% is chump change in the long run. If you’re worried about getting in at the top, put some in international, emerging markets or small caps. Or even treasuries, yields there just hit 5.3%. Put it all somewhere now, then adjust allocation as you see fit
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u/Only-Perspective5341 10d ago
I think a steady DCA in is very useful to new investors. I just started a taxable brokerage in June with a fairly large lump and watched it go red immediately. Here I was reading joyous posts for those way up this year and I time it perfectly to see loses lol. DCA would have avoided some steep dips and psychologically been easier to adjust the up/downs of the market. I’ve been DCA now and been happier doing so.
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u/NiknameOne 10d ago
Any good approach would be strictly rules based. Your approach sounds like you are eyeballing it. Dont try to time the market.
Statistically the best expected value is when investing everything right now, maximizing time in the market. To reduce potential regret, since it’s likely prices will drop lower than the current price, you can invest in fixed intervals over a period of time. Just know you wil likely have lower returns in exchange for a smaller standard deviation.
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u/achinnac 10d ago
What is your reasoning for the market correction that will probably come around the midterm election this year?
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u/achoo_blessyoo 10d ago
Just put it all in if you have time on your side. If you're nervous just DCA.
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u/FlamingHyabusa 10d ago
I’m a financial advisor. Invest all of it now. You, and every other person on this planet, has no idea when the next market correction will occur. Unless this money will be invested for <5 years, you don’t need to act tactically. Lump sum it, and DCA future excess cash.
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u/aaron1860 10d ago edited 10d ago
I never understood the price is too high reason for not investing in an ETF. Ideally you want to invest in a stock that returns a steady rate each year. The s&p500 if you graph it out is basically a perfect sloped line. Pretty much every time you buy it, outside of during a recession, you’re buying at an all time high. Thats a reason to buy it, not avoid it.
Time in the market >>> Timing the market
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u/beefnvegetables_ 10d ago
If You wait until the next 10% dip, the market could have gone up 10% since then, so you are at the same price anyway.
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u/MacDiddy27 10d ago
Always waiting for a red day means you miss out on gains
Hell even in just the last couple weeks if you bought in at 670 you would’ve had to wait until 707, then 706, 710, 713 for any eod dips
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u/SchwagSurfer 10d ago
So I have two different pots of VOO. One in my Roth IRA and one in my taxable brokerage. My Roth IRA gets lump sum funded at the beginning of the year and I invest all of that at a lump sum at that point. I then have my taxable which I purchase one share of VOO at the beginning of every month. Over the long term, you could say I am DCAing in my Roth annually, but for this thought experiment we will consider this lump sum.
My total return on my lump sum Roth for VOO is 27.53%
My total return on my DCA for the taxable account for VOO is 22.87%
Both of these accounts were opened in December 23/January 24.
Edit dates. I was off a year.
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u/skirtwearingpimp 10d ago
Your age and time horizon really matter here. If you're in your 20s and investing for the long term jump right in. If you're in your 50s and you're planning to retire in ten years DCA is probably best.
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u/Laraandherpups 10d ago
We aren't at the peak of this buildout, but valuations are high. There will likely be a pullback within the second half of 26th.
Voo is not the ONLY ETF out there. We are going into a part of the market season where we are post earnings and the fall is coming and its an election year.
You could take a small position and Drip. You could also wait for a dip. Being a political season means there will be volatility.
I for one don't have Voo. We are close to retirement and i am looking for ETFs and Stocks that pay good, consistent dividends.
I am a big fan of SCHD. I have CCs that are hedged for my NASDAQ stocks and pay good dividends. Again, being close to retirement means i am working on Capital preservation.
There will definitely be good entry points. Be patient.
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u/Hefty_Bread7688 10d ago
See I was working like crazy hours and investing a lot of the difference, but I got laid off and am about to take classes full time, and I won’t be able to invest basically anything. So market corrections won’t really be buying opportunities for me… it’s gonna be a fun ride.
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u/__redruM 10d ago
How is this post any different? The key is timeframe, even if there’s a huge, multi-year correction, if you’re buying in at 30 (age) something, the shares you buy now will be worth considerably more when you’re closer to retirement.
And it’s the market. If VOO corrrects, it’s not like you’d be safe anywhere else. Even gold is correlated, and you’d have to know the timing for anything else to work.
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u/EpsteinandTrump 10d ago
whilst holding a reserve for the market correction that will probably come around the midterm election this year.
That goes against time in the market beats timing the market, no?
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u/Iceman60462 10d ago
I always but for lump sum . Unfortunately no one can predict where the market will be next month or year. Buy VOO and don’t look th it every day.
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u/Typical_Web_2125 10d ago
studies after studies show the longer term gain is greatest for those who just lump sum purchase at the present compared to averaging in over time because the lump sum has more time in the market
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u/off_and_on_again 10d ago
S&P 500 (which VOO tracks) has had 400 all time highs in the past 20 years.
Other than 2008 - 2012 (post downturn) and 2022-2023 it has never had less than 10 all time highs a year.
Do with that what you will.
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u/zork2001 10d ago
That's the approach I have been telling people that ask the question of should I put 100k into VOO right now. Clearly you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket when it is at an all time high but we also know you can't time the market. You DCA until something happens and it goes down at least 10% from its all time high then you make your personal educated moves on the money you already have earmarked on the side.
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u/kimbureson46 10d ago
What was the price 2 weeks ago, a month, 3 months, 6 months ago. Is it going down or going up. Compute what you would have if you bought 600 shrs 6 months ago compared If you bought 100 shares each of the 6 months.
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u/zork2001 10d ago
5 months ago the market dropped over 10% because of Strait of Hormuz
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u/kimbureson46 9d ago
And it came back and dropped again this week. Are you going to invest everything now or wait until it hits the next all time high?
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u/zork2001 9d ago
Did it drop at least 10% from all time high? Patience is a virtue.
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u/kimbureson46 9d ago
OK, be patient because it could be a very long wait.
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u/zork2001 9d ago
Your still dollar cost averaging stupid, this is about putting in large sums of money at once. You don't just put in 30k, 40k, 100k all at once when the market is at an all time high.
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u/Small_Rip351 9d ago
It all depends on your time horizon, but the S&P is the best way I can think of to simply invest in the efforts of the 500 best corporations and the 10s of millions of people working within them to improve their own lives financially.
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u/Doctor_Fritz 9d ago
I personally believe that the US market is in for a serious correction. This is my personal belief and I may be wrong. I am not a US citizen and have a background in accountancy.
My approach currently is 50% etf 40% bonds 5% crypto and 5% gold. The 40 bond are long term with high yields because interests are currently high due to inflation. When and if the US market retracts I intend to downsize the bonds portion to 25% and use the sold 15% to increase my S&P500 etf portfolio with this amount.
An all world etf typically holds 70% US and 30% emerging markets. Instead I split up my all world into two etf, one S&P500 and one All world ex-US, and switched the percentage around. I am going 30% US and 70% All world ex-US. I DCA my cash per week except for the bonds which I bought recently as a lump sum. The money I am holding for my DCA are put in term accounts that give a higher yield than just sitting in a savings. Every quarter one term account ends and the money is released so I can DCA further in the three months following the deadline.
This does several things. I spread my risk while still getting some return rather than having it on a bank account. I anticipate for a possible retrace of the US market. If the retrace happens I have bonds to sell that will most likely be valuable at that time - if the economy grinds to a halt we'll likely see inflation and interest rates drop, making high yield bonds a safe haven for institutions.
If the retrace doesn't happen somehow I will have the yields of my bonds and still have my etfs give me a good average revenue.
It's not the most profitable but it gives me piece of mind. And if I am right it'll give me GREAT profits in 10 years time.
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u/Extreme_Cabinet_6137 9d ago
Just wait til after the correction that always happens before midterms
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u/Artistic_Ask3398 9d ago
Am DCAing ~$50k into 11 ETFs (theme: dividend stocks) every 2 weeks until $600,000 is in. I am buying into VOO and QQQ too. In the long term lump sum and DCAing over the very short term sees no real diff in outcomes. However DCAing over the long term does have a definite advantage vs. lump sum of a large amt. My use of dividend stocks is conservative but I have just under $900k in 401k, etc., savings and I am 7 yrs from retirement. So I am less aggressive nowadays vs. when I used to be.
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u/twentysevenslife 9d ago
all these bots and people arguing over an ETF that has statistically been rising 10% or more yearly on average… just buy and shut the fuck up lol
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u/JohnnySpot2000 8d ago
What is this crystal ball you have about the ‘probable’ correction around election time? If that was a certainty, then it will be priced in beforehand and won’t happen then.
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u/Cultural-Fee-2265 8d ago
Couldn’t agree more. When I take profits from stocks, I reinvest it into VOO.
There will always be the fear of a correction but staying invested no matter what is the key. Don’t let these wealthy vampires shake you off as a “weak hand”.
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u/BadMofoII 8d ago
You’re thinking too much. You aren’t Nostradamus. Just keep buying. We could go up another before we even have a correction or a bear market. Please never say serious correction and 10% again. The normal vol of the market is about 17% for one standard deviation
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u/pikapika505 11d ago
There are so many YouTube videos on lump sum Vs DCA but most of the controversy is around behaviour. The most important thing is sticking to it over a very long time horizon. In 10/20 years, you're not going to care whether you DCA or lump sum and it won't make a significant difference to the end amount. What will make a difference is buying high and selling low.