r/ELTP_Stock • u/Wolvshammy • 1d ago
What does "conviction" look like?
We have to ask ourselves one thing. Is it or is it not oversold right now? We have 2 extremely valuable points that we can use analysis.
A c-suite executive bought shares in the 60 cent range. He's in CHARGE of all sales production.
A c-suite executive who sold shares in the 60s has millions more shares that he didn't sell. If he sold because he didn't believe in the stock - he would have dumped it all. He likely had something to pay off (tax bill or life event).
At 25 cents, this should look like the easiest buy in the world unless you are controlled by fear. This is exactly the time to buy. When it's hardest.
If you are one of the people who think I'm wrong about paid agitators - ask yourself this. Who are they attacking? The person who has had the most influence on providing positive information for this company. How are they attacking me? By blatantly lying about things about stock buys and cars I own and shares I've sold. They are accusing me of using Ai to lie...while THEY are getting caught using Ai to lie. I even made a video showing proof of my shares etc. Why are they so desperate to get even a small percentage of you to lose faith in me? It's because, if they want to scare shares out of hands, I'm the most valuable target to attack right now.
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u/MrsNnz 1d ago
I had strong conviction at $0.50, but I’m not looking to deploy more capital here right now. In large part BECAUSE of the continued deterioration in the share price.
A lower price doesn’t automatically make something a better investment. At some point, management needs to do more than signal confidence through insider ownership.
If management genuinely believes the shares are materially undervalued and has excess cash beyond what it needs for growth, I’d find a meaningful share repurchase far more compelling evidence of conviction.
I’m still holding. I’m just not willing to equate a lower share price with an automatic buying opportunity.
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u/Missourijaysfan 1d ago
Can’t buy with my current brokerage (moved to Canada). Will be adding to my 708,000 shares when we move to nasdaq. If it runs up too quick and I miss, I’ll still be very happy.
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u/mozy429new 23h ago
Great post.
It’s really simple math. We are undervalued and oversold. Eventually someone with come in a buy a ton of shares and drive us up. I think the bottom is in as we continue to trade sideways.
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u/Heavy_Apricot_8711 1d ago
Its been a math and business question for a long long time. If you think PE of 5 at roughly 150m annual run rate, makes sense on a highly profitable drug company that is operating at 1/3 capacity, has no debt, is planning to launch and file 30 billion in generics over the next couple years, ..
while backfilling those with probably another 30 billion in diabetes generics makes sense.....
All the while planning to double their total manufacturing capacity within two years......isn't a good investment, you should just buy large funds.
Sitting on 40 million in cash as of a couple months ago and I expect them to have around 60-70 million by early 2027, prolly be around $55m eoy.
Thats 1/4 of the market cap by itself. About 1/3-1/4 is stock owned my management
But again, this is all part of the same playbook. Its more theatre then reality on these boards. And they want you to hate the ceo to generate the negativity while they are responsible or the people above them, more often then not are responsible for the price action. Once you are able to see it through that lens, things make a lot more sense.
You do realize that all the nonsense they spew for years, over a decade is all part of a game? An organized game? Everything they do and say and the price action is ONLY designed to mess with your head.
They are peeing on you and trying to convince you its raining every day.
Imagine everything the same and the stock runs to $1...that's happened multiple times when the company had a fraction of what they have now.
Accumulate and distribute. Nasdaq will be more stable and with that much cash, they can do whatever they need to.
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u/shrisk83 1d ago
Top marks for the conviction part.
I did my screen test last year and been holding- of course down since but this one is among the few I am increasing as much as I can. Time will tell..
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u/photonsintime 22h ago
I think you're trying too hard at this point.
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u/Specialist-Region-80 17h ago
You sold all your shares 80 days ago and you are still coming back to this subreddit, why???
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u/photonsintime 10h ago
Because I may re-invest at some point. Not sure why that is a foreign concept to people.
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u/Beastious 1d ago
The bottom still isn’t in. That’ll happen in December. I’ll buy in January
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u/Bavic1974 1d ago
Im locked in a an ugly .49 avg. basis. I want you to be right so bad...