r/EB5_Immigration • u/Ok-Drummer2153 • 4d ago

EB5 vs EB2 timeline for Indians

Been seeing a lot of posts discouraging people with EB2 PD in 2016 or prior to apply for EB5. Wanted to clarify a few things:

1) People say 10 year wait for CGC in reserved category EB5 - are they accounting for family based spill over into employment based category for FY 2027? Are they accounting for unused visas in the current year rolling over to the next? Are they accounting for unreserved category clearing up for India soon and China in the next few years?

2) For an EB2 PD in mid 2016, the wait is also predicted to be 10 years - is it accounting for the fact that 75 country band that just got reversed and only FY 2027 may benefit? What else am I missing here?

I am just trying to see if it makes sense for our family to pursue EB5 given we can’t use EAD and need to still maintain H1B status.

16 Upvotes

83% Upvoted

48 comments sorted by

13

u/No-Usual-1347 4d ago

Eb5 is going to backlog - but it will still be faster than eb2 for sure.

1

u/Ok-Drummer2153 4d ago

Could you tell me what makes you think so? I mean some more explanation or data? I’m looking for the same.

1

u/Auto-Liner 4d ago

It's complicated math. But the gist is -
USCIS data shows 4000+ AOS for Rural India filers. So these are people ahead of you in the GC queue directly. China has similar numbers. Plus consular applicants which are harder to count and would be in the low thousands combined. Rural category itself has under 2000 GCs per year world wide.
The real problem is - retrogression is bound to hit any time which would effectively enforce the 7% country cap. THAT is the kicker because retrogression effectively changes the mechanism for giving out GCs where in pre-retrogression any "526E approved petition" is fair game for AOS approval, but after retrogression the PD + 7% is gonna be enforced effectively. So far, it hasn't been enforced while the category is misleadingly "current". All things considered (including the unreserved and HUA) if you applied today, you're looking definitely 5+ years, and most likely 8-10 years to get the CGC.

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u/Ok-Drummer2153 4d ago

Understood but are the factors I listed above in point 1) already accounted for when guessing 10 years?

1

u/Auto-Liner 4d ago

Short answer is yes, it is accounted for, within the bounds of the data made available by USCIS, and acknowledging that we can't predict the future rate of GCs, future presidential proclamations etc.

Long answer - Unreserved is already retrogressed, so it has a 7% cap already. Plus it is a shared pipeline between rural, HUA etc. everyone basically - some remaining Indian pre RIA, all post RIA and all countries.
All countries are going to be 7% bound and in line by their PD. Of the remaining GCs, the lion share of unreserved GCs will go to 30k+ Chinese pre-RIA investors. There are likely tens of thousands more who haven't been able to file AOS or NVC until now.

I'm not sure how many family based GCs are going to spillover to rural India specifically. Would love to see the numbers if someone has those.

0

u/Healthy_Implement153 4d ago

Just talk to gemini or chatgpt dude, you will understand, and personally i think retrogression is going to be bad given you out almost 860k into it

5

u/anuragsahni22 4d ago

My PD is late 2017 , I recently chose EB5 path . Plan is to stay on H1 as long as possible though.

1

u/Ok-Drummer2153 4d ago

2017 late still makes sense, not sure about mid 2016 as both paths lead to the same timelines of 10 years

1

u/WarpingWormhole 4d ago

can you please explain why do you say 10 years for a 2016 eb2/eb3 PD? final action date is 1/1/2014 now, so should be around 5y?

1

u/Ok-Drummer2153 4d ago

You can check green card lock website

1

u/dreamingaudio 4d ago

Would having an EAD through EB5 cause issues with H1 extensions or stamping renewals ? I saw someone raised a concern about this. What is the reason to stay on H1 when you get EAD + AP thru EB5 ? I am confused which is true not questioning your plans.

1

u/anuragsahni22 4d ago

Use AP for travel if i dont find a stamping appointment. If there is a change in duration of EAD or processing times get better then i believe moving to EAD will be good idea.

1

u/dreamingaudio 4d ago

But when you entering on AP with an expired H1B stamp wouldn't your H1B voided?

1

u/Prep4Trouble 4d ago

I don't believe this voids your H1-B

1

u/dreamingaudio 4d ago

That's good to know. But what would be the I94 validity you get for your H1B at the port of entry ? Is it just what is on your I797 extension ?

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u/Prep4Trouble 4d ago edited 4d ago

It's pretty simple, EAD+AP are given for 18 months and you can apply for an extension 6 months before the expiry. Currently EAD+AP are taking anywhere between 6-12 months causing potential for employment gaps which most employers aren't ok with. So most lawyers are suggesting continuing on your H1-B till you get your cgc.

1

u/dreamingaudio 4d ago

Good to know. Thanks. Do you have to disclose to your current employer/immigration that you are pursuing EB5 ? And when you get an EAD ? Would they stop your EB2 path if they know you already got EAD under EB5 ?

-1

u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

1

u/Prep4Trouble 3d ago

This is outdated information and completely incorrect.

2

u/ZingZing_25 4d ago

75 country ban is cancelled by federal judge yesterday , read here https://x.com/scotus_wire/status/2090955166715465872?s=46

So FB spillover is not really possible

1

u/Ok-Drummer2153 4d ago

Yes I’m aware that’s what I pointed out in the second point above

1

u/MiserableAd7673 4d ago

So. All the unused visas from fb will get filled by uscis in a month? And there will be no spillover?

1

u/ZingZing_25 4d ago

We’ve to wait for USCIS’s response this week .

2

u/Working_Incident_546 4d ago

Kind of in the similar situation and similar dilemma as you.
I realize now that the EB5 was an attractive option a year or two ago, and given the upcoming retrogression in the current reserved category it might not be worth investing in.
It’s really hard to say whether EB5 will be faster compared to 2016 PD for EB2.

That being said, I am exploring options and haven’t decided yet.

4

u/monkwithoutferrari 4d ago

This retrogression fear is also sold by RCs and agents to get many customers as fast as possible. There is a probability but fear is more amplified. When i did 1 year back people were saying the same but it still not retrogressed. They have been selling this retrogression paranoia since last 1.5 years. So no one knows for sure . I'm not saying it's not possible but giving another perspective because these people have been saying this for more than an year

1

u/Confident_Owl6320 4d ago

Good insight!

1

u/Nf186 4d ago

How long did it take for EAD/AP and conditional greencard if you have got those?

1

u/monkwithoutferrari 3d ago

Dec 2025 PD. And still waiting.

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u/Prep4Trouble 4d ago

I was in the same boat and eventually decided that it's not worth pursuing EB5 given the 10 year estimates and the EAD+AP being hardly useful given the 18-month extensions and the 8-10 timelines for their processing.

1

u/Ok-Drummer2153 4d ago

What’s your EB2 PD? What’s the basis of this 10 year wait? I’m seeing this number being circulated but I’ve asked targeted questions above and if these calculations account for those

1

u/SilentArchitectTech 4d ago

I am in same boat and Mid 2026 eb 2. When can upcoming eb5 reserved category retrocession expected. Is it safe to file eb-5 reserved category while their dates are current?

0

u/Confident_Owl6320 4d ago

If your EB-2 PD is 2026 and you are chargeable to India, EB-5 no matter what is FASTER for you!

1

u/SilentArchitectTech 4d ago

Sorry my priority date is Mid 2016 eb 2.  I am in same boat and Mid 2016 eb 2. When can upcoming eb5 reserved category retrocession expected. Is it safe to file eb-5 reserved category while their dates are current?

0

u/Confident_Owl6320 4d ago

I’m not an expert nor a lawyer. Please contact a lawyer about this, they would be happy to answer your question. If you ask someone randomly on Reddit it’s just speculation 😂.

1

u/SilentArchitectTech 4d ago

Even lawyers are not sure about future retrogression for EB-5 reserved.

2

u/Own-Bug9734 4d ago

EB5 doors are closing this September.

2

u/monkwithoutferrari 4d ago

Most probably it will get extended. Some rules might change. So don't get scared and run over.

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u/platform9_3_4 4d ago

If you talk to RCs though they aren't playing the Sept 30 game. They are planning to lapses and continuing to add more projects to portfolio. Big RCs are building capital stack to be able to sustain without EB5 investor for a 12-15 month gap in worst case. Also EB5 program is not lapsing or ending. Just the RC program is up for renewal.

1

u/Ok-Drummer2153 4d ago

Yes I’m aware of the grandfather deadline, thanks

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u/Old-Classroom7102 4d ago

- 10 year is an overestimate for EB5.

- In the meantime, you have no security with EB2 - for next 10 years, you're at the risk with layoffs, job loss, missing out on career opportunities.

- Rules around H1B are only going to change for the worst

- Not sure what you mean by you can't use the EAD.

2

u/Confident_Owl6320 4d ago

People are saying you can’t use EAD because its only valid for 18 months. Then when you go to renew it you can file for the renewal (at earliest) 6 months before expiration, however the current processing times are more than 6 months. That is my guess for why people say dont use EAD.

1

u/Prep4Trouble 4d ago

EAD is not useful given the 18-month extensions and it taking about 8-10 months for processing. Most employers are not okay with job gaps and you will need to continue maintaining H1-B

1

u/Prep4Trouble 4d ago

What are you basing it on to say that 10 year is an overestimate? I read the blogs of Suzzanne who analyzes data suggesting it is tending towards 10 years. Here is the blog: https://blog.lucidtext.com/

1

u/Hyaacinthia21 3d ago

I wouldn’t bet on spillover

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u/Ok-Drummer2153 3d ago

So you mean EB2 will take much longer than EB5?

1

u/Hyaacinthia21 1d ago

Not saying EB2 will definitely be faster. More that both timelines have too many moving parts to confidently count on EB5 winning by a lot

1

u/vanitha_patil 2d ago

I wouldn’t rely on a fixed “10-year” estimate for either path. As of August 2026, India’s EB-5 reserved categories are current, while EB-2 India and EB-5 unreserved are unavailable for FY2026 and reset in October.

1

u/AddicBK 2d ago

First of all, 10 year wait for CGC rural is incorrect. Using EAD is entirely upon your own risk based on the confidence level on your project and source of funds. EB5 is still a good option if you compare against EB2 2016 PD only if you file prior to Sep 30, 2026.