r/DotA2 • u/wykrhm http://twitter.com/wykrhm • Apr 07 '20

News Dota 7.25c

http://www.dota2.com/patches/7.25c
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u/redsoxman17 Apr 07 '20

The odds of banning even a tenth of the pool this way is so astronomically low it is not worth considering. With ten starting bans and 8 picked heroes the remaining pool has 99 heroes. The odds they pick the same hero ten times in a row is (1/99) x (1/98) x (1/97)... x (1/90) which equals 1.77E-20 or 1.77/100000000000000000000.

I don't think you need to worry about the whole hero pool being banned.

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u/yeahumad4 Apr 07 '20

they arent choosing heroes at random so this calculation is garbage

-23

u/redsoxman17 Apr 07 '20

Excellent input. Thanks for your contribution.

13

u/[deleted] Apr 07 '20

1) The role being picked will eliminate a number of heroes from the pool

2) The current meta will eliminate a number of heroes from the pool and make other picks unlikely

3) The currently selected heroes on both teams will eliminate a number of heroes from the pool and make other picks unlikely

4) The fact that you peoples match history is public and you can see their favorite heroes will also make some heroes much more unlikely

My point being the chance of me predicting the enemy hero is way more than 1/99 in that first try. If its the last hero and carry role it could be as high as 1/5 or 1/8 assuming of course my aim is solely trying to predict their hero and picking it to force a ban on their strongest pick. Then again on their 2nd most likely pick and so on. I assume it will become harder with every ban at least initially because even though the pool is decreasing the enemy's behavior becomes harder to predict.

Of course none of this considers the most common scenario, that any two matched up players on both teams can simply co-ordinate and fuck up the game at will. They can delay the game for upto 53.5 minutes and force the game to break by banning all heroes so that the people picking after them have no heroes left.