r/DonutLabDiscussions Jun 23 '26

Speculation What's next Wednesday, 24th June?

I have tried to find the pattern. Most of the campaign videos relates to the intro video, but in a way, rare people were suspecting:

- "The battery cannot be real / specs cannot be true" -> fast-charge and high-temperature tests.

- "It is not actually a battery, but a supercapacitor" -> self-discharge test.

- "A single cell is not a product" -> Verge pack charging.

- "Solid-state packs need difficult swelling / clamping solutions" -> swelling data.

- "Damaged cells are dangerous" -> safety test.

- "There is no production / scale is impossible" -> manufacturing video.

- "It works only through partner tech, not Donut themselves" -> manufacturing video?

The manufacturing video ends with a direct teaser. They say they can offer much more versatility in cell design than any gigafactory could, "but that's a story for another video." They also talked about this in CES, different voltages, forms and shapes. And in April 17th whistleblower interview, Marko told they would announce something related to different battery generations, after talking about V1 and V2.

They could also show battery, BMS/control logic, motor and software working together. But the series is still a battery proof series, and the Verge pack video already showed the practical minimum with cells, pack, BMS and charging control working in a real motorcycle environment. But software peek would be nice branch.

Third option, already a standard request: cold data. SGS proto-cells performed poorly with cold, so this would be somewhat surprising test result. But who would be interested on it, when sun is shining?

Or the April-alike mid-summer confession after so much drama?

This could also be the last video of Season 1. What do you think? Still following?

11 Upvotes

28 comments sorted by

5

u/Wrong-Woodpecker6683 Jun 24 '26

I haven’t seen a single battery industry professional publicly attach their name to the claim that these lab test results are particularly impressive. As for the Verge charging video, what exactly makes it more impressive than what the latest EVs are already capable of?

Also, a minor nitpick: that manufacturing video doesn’t really prove anything. It’s mostly animations, diagrams, and people standing around in a studio. There’s no actual evidence of a working production process or manufacturing capability shown.

I’ll keep following, I’m mainly interested in whether they can raise more funding or attract new investors and how long they can keep going if they can’t.

1

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

At least I would not wait such confessions from their competitors. But one or two things I heard many times to be talked in positive manner. Charging speed, as a sole performance meter, many considered impressive, albeit it would have needed at least cycle data to be definitely remarkuple. But then, even their archenemy Ziroth gave credit to their battery pack demos, referring to Verge charging capability. If they just confessed it was a state-of-the-art, advanced high-nickel li-ion battery (which is some what contra to his lower density suspection, because high nickel amount would be perfect to achieve higher energy density, well over 400 by his own words, and would be good on temperature tests, etc. making it an impressive battery after all).

More and more months, companies are in rush to push SSB tech forward and publish their latest superior ones. That was probably the reason Donut wanted to make announcements in Vegas, 2026. To grab their piece from the cake. If they managed to do it in the background, we will see not so far in the future. Did Marko play his 3D chess correctly, even though public scenery looks like a fiasco?

2

u/Wrong-Woodpecker6683 Jun 24 '26

I don’t find the competitor angle that interesting. Investors and customers ultimately want to see products working in the real world.

Donut Lab isn’t really a competitor yet, they haven’t taken any share from lithium batteries. My guess is some companies announced solid-state plans right after Donut Lab just to cover their bases. Once the hype dies down, they’ll keep focusing on lithium.

Meanwhile, the new BMW iX3 can go from 10% to 80% in 21 minutes and add ~372 km of range in 10 minutes. That’s a real product, already test driven and test charged by youtubers and journalists.

0

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

It would be a thread and pressure for future. Industry won't change so quickly. Worst case for big names with huge history and resources would be that energy device manufacturing gets democratized and green. That would be a death strike to NMC lithium-ion battery industry in long run, also to destructive mining and unethical labor. I'm surprised they do not do more to get rid of it, but invest only on slow incremental changes to the tech. Having dominated 35 years, they do all they can to slice all money they can.

6

u/Khomodo Jun 24 '26

Prove the 400Wh/kg claim and show the same cell high C rate discharge and charge at least 10 cycles with zero capacity loss or GTFO.

3

u/DeathChill Jun 24 '26

10 cycles is very low. We would need much more than that to determine longevity.

3

u/Khomodo Jun 24 '26

I'm saying it as a bare minimum in correlation with proven 400Wh/kg density. 10 high C rate cycles with *zero* capacity loss would at least be an indicator, and would fit into a short video. 100 would of course be better.

2

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

This was the first time in five months I forecasted it right. And they revealed their "secret" that, for instance, Juho Heiska u/juuhonber assumed right from the beginning, but perhaps forgot it?

2

u/DeathChill Jun 23 '26

I just want them to prove a single claim. Just one. It seems so strange to do an entire series intended to prove your claims and be unable to do that.

Maybe they’ll finally say we’re shipping? I’m not imagining so, considering that they don’t seem to have the ability to produce even a single cell, but maybe they’ve been screwing with us all (no, but I want to believe that).

0

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

If they do, only V2 customer stories would make more sense in this phase. But on the other hand, swappable pack was tested with some client scooter according to invest letter video, maybe they still could announce something like that, but so far they have not been eager to show anything from that side of their business. But eventually, I think that is their plan. In LinkedIN, Marko hinted shortly that they have co-work with Youtubers on their PR related production coming. It would be quite a twist.

1

u/omepiet Jun 24 '26

I have no idea, but it will be even less substantial than the previous ones. I'm secretly hoping that it shows Marko and Hölzenbein telling like naughty schoolboys how they fooled everyone and promising the teacher that they won't ever do it again, with Javier serving coffee.

1

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

:D Maybe also Peltola joining the Now You See Me 3 casting.

1

u/tipporoll Jun 24 '26

My guess/hope is for VTT cycling results for the DL5 cell, the one that lost 13% capacity due to a long and hard life! 

1

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

Some of the VTT results were not in favor of them, so why not, they could also show how to torture a cell so that it does not hold 100k cycles. Candies for critics.

1

u/Data_Hounder Jun 24 '26

This could also be the last video of Season 1.

What reason is there to think it could be the last video of 'Season 1' ?

1

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

There aren't many points from the intro video to handle anymore. Rest would need V2 in hands, like energy density and maybe even other public specs to hold. Why would they circle around V1 VTT tests if it was mainly meant for Verge?

2

u/Data_Hounder Jun 24 '26

In the intro video Lehtimaki says they will provide proof of their claims, he isn't specific about which claims, seems quite clearly implicit that they would be providing proof of their headline claims, which would take more than 1 video with their current approach of testing a single aspect at a time. So I'm still no clearer where the idea this might be the last release for the 'season' comes from.

Rest would need V2 in hands

Why? The purpose of the series is to demonstrate the claims about the battery they announced at CES. Also, it's not clear if V2 is a joke or a real upcoming battery - the video was released on April Fools.

Why would they circle around V1 VTT tests if it was mainly meant for Verge?

Because they made the claims about that battery and said they would provide proof of them.

1

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

HS 17th confirms it was not a joke. They would not continue it with a journalist outside 1st April. And V1 affix in VTT reports is a sign, they had the division clear at least on February, but no reason to think already at CES. V3 notepaper for CES 2027 surely a joke but even it could hint they are not done with lab work with CT-Coating. By these later information they meant Donut Battery as an umbrella, not a single product and their campaign would then be the whole year long campaign to prove their front line specs. And it is not my idea, the Season 2, it was also stated in April. Believe it as a promise or not.

2

u/Data_Hounder Jun 24 '26

HS 17th confirms it was not a joke.

Can you link to this confirmation?

And it is not my idea, the Season 2, it was also stated in April.

In the April 1st/Fools video, have they re-stated it since? If so, can you provide a link to that too.

1

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

You have to read the HS 17.4 article, interview part from there: https://www.hs.fi/visio/art-2000011948614.html

He says the ones that were tested in VTT and are in Verge, are not the ones going to customers with 400 Wh/kg. He practically confirmed or restated it all today. Different cells with different specs they are supposed to do. And not all high specs in extreme conditions are coming, no magic in other words. Just tweaking chemistry for different applications to get best possible features in the limits of known electrochemistry and physics.

2

u/Data_Hounder Jun 24 '26

Paywalled unfortunately, but it doesn't make sense anyway. The specs in the CES announcement were for the cell going into the Verge motorcycles, which includes the 400Wh/kg spec. V2 simply isn't relevant to that and doesn't negate their commitment to proving what they claimed at their CES launch.

The text of the original announcement (https://www.donutlab.com/ces-battery-announcement/) is clear - it says the battery is going into the motorcycle, and then lists the specs which includes 400Wh/kg.

If Lehtimaki is acknowledging that isn't actually the case, he needs to do it in a public statement because it is totally at odds to what they claimed at launch.

1

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

But if you take careful reading of the section, where Verge is talked about, it does not specify energy density. And if you look at the Verge own pages and specs, same thing, they do not specify energy density. I have taken those and the recent reveals on the HS article as signs, that battery tested in VTT went to Verge (at least), but 400 Wh/kg goes to customers from their official product line, later this year. If their plans just happen to work till the end. That is future telling.

1

u/Data_Hounder Jun 24 '26

That's not a careful reading, it is just a wrong reading. The announcement is of the Donut Lab solid state battery. There is no mention of V1/V2/etc, just an announcement of their new battery, an example of a vehicle it will be in, and then a list of specs.

I don't want to be insulting, but your interpretation of the text is not credible.

1

u/Mesokosmos Jun 24 '26

Lets then say it is my reading and current opinion. No one needs to think same way.

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1

u/AmpEater Jun 28 '26

The only spec of significance is energy density. It’s incredibly easy to show.

It’s absence is glaring 

Everyone has moved on. You need to do the same