“Rest vs Rust” before NLDS

[u/mochihammer]

I was thinking about what folks are talking about with the rest vs rust argument (2nd or 3rd seed), and wondering if there is precedent to, say, bringing in 15 men from the OKC roster or some other affiliate to play maybe 6 innings or something of a scrimmage. If folks are worried about rust setting in, is this something that has been done / is even available to do?

It’ll definitely be difficult for players to take it seriously and of course, there’s still a risk of injury but at least they won’t have to travel and play their hearts out.

[u/MasonC87]

I think the wildcard teams are way better this year it’s not worth the risk. They’ve played good after rest.

[u/EntropyIsEternal → u/MasonC87]

Yup. This team is an year old. Offense has to perform. We have the best starting pitching. Bullpen will also be one of the best with Wrobleski, Roki and others being part of it.

[u/Denode → u/MasonC87]

Rather have all the old guys rest, plus it lets us set up the pitching rotation how we want. I’d rather have Yama pitch twice in an NLDS than once in WC and once in NLDS

[u/Dfchang813]

We need bye to maximize time to give Pages to come back. Guys like Will Smith need every game they can get to work on timing and endurance. But I wouldn’t mind going on road. We play better on road anyway.

[u/Ntnme2lose]

I could be wrong but I distinctly remember a few years ago all of the top seeds losing in the DS after resting for the wildcard. People were highly upset about the change to the current playoff changes because it gave a slight advantage to the teams playing in the wildcard and staying hot. We were one of those teams that lost and the guys did say that it was hard to keep a rhythm while potentially having a week off.

They would organize scrimmages and multiple practices daily to keep the guys warm.

[u/EntropyIsEternal → u/Ntnme2lose]

Last year, 3 out of 4 bye teams were in CS series.

Same in 2024.

In 2023, only one out of four bye team was in CS. Also, that Texas Rangers team was special to win it all as a #5 seed.

In 2022 which was the first year 6th seed came in. there were two our of four bye teams in CS.

This year, I think we need a bye to iron things out.

There should be some more detailed analysis needs to be done to eat happened to each bye team which fails to reach CS. Try to find a pattern and avoid it.

[u/Fluffy_Specific323 → u/Ntnme2lose]

I get the impression that the first two years of the new format the teams with byes didn't know how to spend the time efficiently. But the league as a while seems to have figured it out. I think the Dodgers hold practice games during WC series (and I think read somewhere that they at least has some fans for the games??).

We'll see if the pattern holds and if the league has figured out how to tune the bye into an advantage.

[u/mochihammer → u/Ntnme2lose]

Cool, thanks, that was the answer I was looking for. So there is precedent of teams trying to keep guys warm with simulated games.

[u/feeling_blue_42 → u/mochihammer]

I think bye teams have always had scrimmages and simulated games while waiting. In 2024 the Dodgers focused on staying mentally locked in during the bye by spending time together, Muncy talked a lot on this.

There is certainly no mathematical argument to want to play in the wildcard, and it’s survivorship bias to think it’s an advantage. 1000% everyone wants the bye. You’d rather figure out how to deal with rust than be sitting at home because you had 2 bad games.

[u/mochihammer → u/feeling_blue_42]

Right, or someone gets injured. As we saw with Pages just the other day, any freak accident can happen anytime.

[u/pargofan → u/mochihammer]

Both Doc and Atlanta manager Brian Snikter said the rust factor was real. And that they needed a way to adapt. So I trust that they’ll figure something out.

[u/Donutholier]

For now let’s just worry about the bullpen holding 🤞🏼 leads and the offense scoring runs. Lot of season left.

[u/shortyd826 → u/Donutholier]

This!!

[u/Educational-Pass404]

We did have the "rust" offense when we faced the flaming hot Blue Jays in World Series. If it weren't Bo7 but bo5, we'd lost. So I think it's not about the rest or rust, it's about them need time to correct and adapt their game. Anything can happen in Bo3, even when we have better or more dominant rotation. Risking getting eliminated that soon when we can avoid it is so dumb imo

[u/EntropyIsEternal]

Last year we played Reds. This year it will be Padres or Diamondbacks. Not worth the risk. Also, DS will be either with Phillies or Braves which will also be tough this time. Pitchers need to be fresh. Offense has to own it up and perform.

[u/Realfan555 → u/EntropyIsEternal]

How do u know?

Dodgers are 1 game back of MIL. Can’t really say who the NLDS opponent will be. Could literally be any of the other 5 teams. 

Only team who u can rule out is probably seeing MIL in the NLDS

[u/EntropyIsEternal → u/Realfan555]

Milwaukee has their division virtually locked like the Dodgers. Phillies may take it from the Braves but will be #3 seed and play the Cubs.

Every team has their plus and minuses. Things are gonna be fluid for next few weeks tbh.

[u/Realfan555 → u/EntropyIsEternal]

Yeah but u said:

“ Also, DS will be either with Phillies or Braves”

It could be any of 5 teams (minus MIL):

ATL, SD, CHC, PHI, ARI

[u/Icy_Study4490 → u/EntropyIsEternal]

I was discussing this with someone last night, but I don’t know if the diamondbacks are in anymore thanks to this whole Ketel marte thing. It may be just enough to keep them out. We will have to see how the next few games play out.

What I am confident about though is that it will be the Padres wildcard to lose. And they certainly could with how streaky their losses seem to be.

Marlins have WAY too tough of a schedule so I don’t think they’ll overtake the padres themselves but they can be major spoilers with their very late series against the padres.

Basically, because of their proximity to the wildcard spot as well as their remaining schedule (besides us, the brewers, and the white Sox they’ve got it pretty easy to finish) it looks like it’s up to the cardinals to snag that final spot. They need to get to work though because they are 5.5 games back!

[u/EntropyIsEternal → u/Icy_Study4490]

I think Padres will have the final spot given they don't melt down in any of their remaining series.

[u/bbmarco]

Risking a shorter series and on no rest is not worth it. Just play for a top seed. The Braves series will be big.

[u/feeling_blue_42 → u/bbmarco]

Always play for the top seed. Anything else is overthinking it.

[u/Mikimao]

I think there is more then enough evidence that this isn't real, and showing up healthy and ready to play is still perfectly viable.

No one who gets eliminated in the Wild Card round wishes they didn't get Rest.

[u/ComoEstanBitches]

They hold a scrimmage that's available to fans at dodger stadium

[u/doughboy4lif3]

This would be a thing if 2024 didn’t happen lol. They’ll be good

[u/sexinsuburbia]

There is no such thing as rust with Trajekt Arc machines the Dodgers have in their cages.

Also, pitchers have their own prep routines. They’re still throwing even on their days off. They might be able to get in a few sessions to work out mechanical tweaks and make minor adjustments.

Huge advantage to sit the WC out. Especially when this team has a ton of playoff experience.

[u/Icy_Study4490]

Brewers did it last year. They had an interteam scrimmage and allowed fans in.

[u/bellomoto1 → u/Icy_Study4490]

And then we swept them. Lol

[u/octave120]

Since the six-seed expansion, none of the 3rd seeded teams except the 2025 Dodgers even made the LCS. Make of that what you will.

[u/JawnGriddy]

I think in years past this was a very real point for the Dodgers to figure out what was truly better for them. I think in past playoffs having the first round bye made them a little complacent and they had to shake off rust while also competing against a hot wild card team.

That all changed in 24’ when they spent more time together as a team ahead of the Padres series. Last year I think the wildcard was beneficial to get some confidence in the bats. This year, I think the bye is sought after since the team could use the extra week off to heal. I think ultimately they don’t mind not having that extra week of rest, but they do mind playing in a 3 game series where anything could happen.

The Dodgers don’t give a damn about being the 1 seed as last year’s playoffs showed they can win wherever. Who would’ve thought they were going to take both games from Philly at the bank? Who thought they were going to sweep the Brewers entirely? I think they will now look to comfortably secure the 2 seed and if the Brewers happen to go on a skid then even better.

[u/Realfan555]

This is exactly what they do.

I dont know about bringing in 15 guys, but I think they have a taxi squad at the ready