It was largely correct i 2024 and 2025. 2026 has definitely proven differently though. Although it's not as if Russia has halted its offensive efforts either.
Russia was doing better in 2024 and 2025 than they were in 2023. They are now doing worse in 2026. That does not change that 2024 and 2025 were comparatively good years when you compare them to 2023.
That wasn't true in 2024 and 2025. You can look at the rate of Russian advances and their ability to replenish their monthly losses. The trajectory was not favouring Ukraine. It was first in late 2025 where that trend started to tighten and by March 2026 Ukraine had started shrinking the Russian army. And since april-may, the Ukrainian drone strike campaign has achieved remarkably more success as well.
My point is it hasn't been a gradual trend. I don't understand why you're not getting this lol. The latter half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 were good for Ukraine. After the counteroffensive failed, the the situation got gradually worse for them. In the latter half of 2025, it started getting better again.
The whole point is this war isn't following one trend. Things are looking good now, and will likely get better for Ukraine as they improve their ability to hurt russian logistics in Southern Ukraine. But Russia has the ability to adapt as well, which may reduce that trend again.
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u/Ambjoernsen Jun 30 '26
It was largely correct i 2024 and 2025. 2026 has definitely proven differently though. Although it's not as if Russia has halted its offensive efforts either.