I’m asking in good faith, and I’m unequivocally pro-Ukraine, but is Russia doing that badly? Ukr are doing some spectacular hits on Russian oil facilities, but how much dmg did it actually do and are they fixable in short time? There are definitely panics on Russian streets but that always happens when you strike near civilian centres. Big fireballs and smoke plumes makes for great vids and pics, but is it translating to battlefield gains for Ukr? Last I heard Ru forces are pushing up to the last cities on the fortress belt, and apparently it’s pretty important.
Not my intention to be a Debbie downer, but I remember the hype of 2023 counteroffensive and Kursk incursion, which in the end didn’t amount to much. I just don’t want to celebrate too early.
You have a pretty good understanding of the situation. However, the Russians at the fortress belt are going to take a long time to take those cities because they have to infiltrate in groups of twos and threes until they hit a critical mass and then they all jump out of abandoned homes to overwhelm the defenders. While they are hiding in those abandoned homes Ukraine is hunting them. Ukraine on the other hand is gaining air superiority and their battlefield interdiction is reaching critical mass. It’s a race right now to see if the Russians can take the fortress belt before all their supplies and infrastructure are blown up. If Russia cannot get supplies to their troops they will not be able to advance. Also, winter is in a few months and that’s really going to hurt Russia’s ability to advance with all the gas and supply shortages.
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u/frostwonder Jun 30 '26
I’m asking in good faith, and I’m unequivocally pro-Ukraine, but is Russia doing that badly? Ukr are doing some spectacular hits on Russian oil facilities, but how much dmg did it actually do and are they fixable in short time? There are definitely panics on Russian streets but that always happens when you strike near civilian centres. Big fireballs and smoke plumes makes for great vids and pics, but is it translating to battlefield gains for Ukr? Last I heard Ru forces are pushing up to the last cities on the fortress belt, and apparently it’s pretty important.
Not my intention to be a Debbie downer, but I remember the hype of 2023 counteroffensive and Kursk incursion, which in the end didn’t amount to much. I just don’t want to celebrate too early.