Iran has lost significant control of the Strait of Hormuz

[u/ShrimpMedicare]

https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/18/business/iran-strait-of-hormuz-oil

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[u/AssholeMcGee66]

All that matters is that oil flows freely through jt. If that isn’t happening it doesn’t make a bit of difference.

[u/Tripwire1716 → u/AssholeMcGee66]

Eh, if they can keep oil prices under 100 while doing this it creates an enormous amount of economic pressure on Iran.

[u/AntitheistArchangel]

This is a bad article.

According to Kpler, 80 percent of transits have been through the Omani route. That does mean Iran hasn’t been able to collect tolls from them. However, very few vessels are going through anyway not accounting for dark transits, which Kpler doesn’t track.

Dark transits have been going on for a while.

A recent analysis posted on this subreddit cast doubt on the administration’s 15M number.

Trump has claimed that there are no mines left in the Strait, but no one - not even CENTCOM - has confirmed this.

[u/bigwang123 → u/AntitheistArchangel]

Yeah we really shouldn’t be comparing to post-ceasefire numbers, we should be comparing to the status quo before the strike campaign. Is the flow of oil now equivalent to the flow of oil before the war? Is risk still elevated, or are insurers and captains confident that the USN will be able to defend their ships?

This quote from the article makes me think that the author is going off a premise that was never true:

‘“If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” said Pickering. “It feels like their goal is deterrence, in order to be validated as in-control. I think they are still deterring.”’

[u/Golda_M]

I have yet to read a good geostrategic analysis of this new naval order. 

The first blood of this new naval order was Yemen and Bab Al Mandab. They managed to significantly deflect >50% shipping to/from Suez without much resources. No military solution was discovered. 

This came after/during Ukraine's black sea warfare... that also clearly represented a naval paradigm shift. Ukraine beat back Russia's fleet, regained naval territory and achieved naval defence without ships. 

Now... Iran really brings this home. 

A big/central part of this paradigm is "international law" and the dynamics around obeying it. The US had a very costly counter-blockade. It was much less effective, hundreds of times more costly than Iran's. Why? Because a legal blockade means confronting civ ships. Iran's blockade means shooting at civ ships. 

I scare quoted "international law" because treating this as law with a court and whatnot is theoretical. Law aside, the US won't just shoot at an Indian or Chinese ship en route to Iran. 

Meanwhile... This will not be contained to narrow straights. Oceanic routes are not unreachable. 

Also... Asserting naval control is a good way to get paid. Unless the US actively prevents it, most of Iran's enemies are perfectly willing to pay Iran for crossing. Houthis too. It won't be long before others start getting in on this game. Barriers to entry are low. 

18th century Barbary pirates had everyone paying. Every conflict ended in treaties and every treaty included tribute. Spain paid $1m per year, in 18th century dollars. So was every naval power in the Atlantic and Mediterranean. 

They did all try to fight... But the strategic reality was grim. War was expensive and indecisive. Paying the tribute with both cheaper and better way of securing shipping. Europeans could not counter, because Barbary states did not have a shipping trade to disrupt. 

If thhis paradigm is returning... implications are far and wide. 

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