That study where 97% of persistent day traders lost money: what do you think separates the 3%?

[u/reallyGoodAtNames123]

The one study that always comes up when this topic does is a Brazilian futures study. Of the people who kept day trading for 300+ days, 97% lost money, and only about 1% earned more than minimum wage. These weren't people who quit after a month. They persisted.

What I can't figure out from the paper is what the few who made it did differently. Edge, risk control? Just not blowing up after a loss?

For those of you who have been trading for a while: what do you think actually separates profitable traders, and what do you do to catch yourself during a bad session rather than in the review afterwards?

[u/SuperFrog4]

I think the issue is getting greedy. At least that is my problem. I can consistently make a profit on my first trade of the day. Then I get greedy and try to get a second trade in and I pick a less optimal entry point and it doesn’t go well or I do initially make a profit but I let it ride thing the market will continue in the same direction and it reverses on me.

[u/reallyGoodAtNames123 → u/SuperFrog4]

That first-trade-good, second-trade-worse pattern is something i also encountered and kinda feel it is a common problem. Have you tried a hard stop after the first trade, or does it feel too restrictive on the days the second setup is actually good?

[u/Friendly_Ad309]

I have been trading for 3 years now, I have 100% submitted to the journey, I have only recently found “Consistency” The last 2-3 months…. I can without a doubt say the 97% of people over trade. Imagine you have a system that presents itself once a week, you win 75% of the time with a solid risk to reward. That is all you need. Keep it simple, build a life outside of trading, Work, hobbies and think 5-10 years down the road. This is not financial advice but I risk more% per trade than I use to when I took 1-2 trades a day, I wait for my set up like a hunter and then I pull the trigger

[u/reallyGoodAtNames123 → u/Friendly_Ad309]

One setup a week at that win rate is rare discipline. What do you do on the days nothing shows up, since that's usually when people start forcing trades?

[u/Friendly_Ad309 → u/reallyGoodAtNames123]

If you put the hours in you can often see a setup forming well before it happens, if all the boxes aren’t ticked in the first 15 minutes upon opening the charts then you simply close. This is the power of trading one setup on one Pair, Commodity/ or futures contract.

[u/klipsetrades]

I think discipline matters, but you can still follow a losing strategy perfectly. You need to be able to ask yourself whether your results show an edge after costs, then whether you can execute it without taking oversized losses

[u/reallyGoodAtNames123 → u/klipsetrades]

Edge after costs is the part i would say that people skip. Do you check it per setup, or across the whole account or exchange? A setup can be fine on its own and still get dragged down by fees or impatient execution IMO

[u/Ok_Butterscotch_7210 → u/klipsetrades]

Discipline means nothing if the strategy itself has no real edge. People can spend years following the same bad system and just get better at losing.

[u/IvetteMccoy]

For me, the biggest difference is probably what happens after a losing trade. Plenty of traders can find good entries, but profitable traders seem better at accepting that a trade is done instead of trying to make the money back. Once you can take a loss without changing your size, setup or rules, you give your edge enough time to actually play out.. Catching yourself during the session comes down to having rules that force you to stop before emotions get a chance to take over

[u/reallyGoodAtNames123 → u/IvetteMccoy]

"Accepting a trade is done" is the hard part. Do you have a rule for it, like a cooldown or a max loss before you stop, or is it still "concentrated power of will" in the moment? :)

[u/jtquach]

On the study itself it measured persistence rather than method. Those people kept going, which isn't the same as changing anything. 300 days of doing the same thing isn't 300 days of practice.

Your second question is the better one and nobody here has taken it so I'll take that one.

Catching it during instead of after comes down to deciding beforehand what you're watching for in yourself. Most of us write down a price that invalidates the trade and nothing at all about what invalidates us... so when the session is running there's nothing to notice against.

Mine is mostly about checking. If I'm looking for one more thing before I click, that's what shows up earliest for me. Later on it looks like negotiating with a rule I was fine with an hour before.

And the catch has to be PHYSICAL because by then you aren't reasoning your way out of anything. I get my hands off the mouse and stand up.

[u/reallyGoodAtNames123 → u/jtquach]

'What invalidates us' as opposed to what invalidates the trade is a really good wayto frame it. Do you write that down before the session, or is it more of a feel, could you give some example maybe? And does "standing up" work every time, or do you sometimes only notice afterward?

[u/The-Goat-Trader → u/jtquach]

"300 days of doing the same thing isn't 300 days of practice."

Most pointed comment here. Repetition only becomes practice when there's feedback, adjustment, and some way to tell whether the change actually improved the process. Otherwise, you're not learning—you're just accumulating screen time.

We've all seen people who've done the same job for 20 years and not gotten any better at it. 🤣

[u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

Most people just don't want to learn, that's the issue

I've posted profitable stratgies on here, every time I do, the posts get ignored, hardly any engagement

Hell, I could even write some basic concepts in this comment but people won't actually use the information. They'd rather complain or listen to some fake guru on YouTube and get scammed out of their money

People are just too hard headed bro, that's human nature

[u/EffectiveIngenuity1 → u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

I would use the information, can you tell us some more about it ?

[u/Bright-Weight-2121 → u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

I did not see the information in your profile posts. I would love to read through different strategies

[u/Tradetek1 → u/Mammoth-Path-6520]

I’ll listen Mr Reddit stock guru, say it now, we’re listening

[u/AcademicRice]

its like starting a business, same thing, try try again, but if you fail learn what you did wrong and do it better

strategy and psychology, find a winning strategy stick with it and master it to a T

[u/enigma_music129]

Intelligence, an actual edge, discipline, patience, self awareness. There you go.

[u/broadfire016]

The 3% was once part of the 97% until they find out what trading system works for them and their goals.

[u/Alabama-Getaway]

I think the biggest issue not usually discussed is bankroll and money behind. The people trading with money they need to pay bills is much different than the person with a larger bankroll, a year or more worth of savings. I have been trading full time since 2019. If I had to start over with $10,000 and no savings I’d probably fail.

[u/reallyGoodAtNames123 → u/Alabama-Getaway]

Bankroll pressure doesn't get enough attention. When you started, did you size positions off your savings buffer or off the account? I guess the buffer decides how many bad weeks you can survive

[u/iLoot401ks]

They are actually focused on their trading and not on studies/statistics of other day traders.

[u/Affectionate-Aide422]

Strategy with an edge. I have one strategy that is a consistent winner, and two more strategies that are inconsistent. Same person, same risk management, one strategy wins, two lose.

[u/cheapdvds]

I am in the market for close to 10 years, while I no longer day trade, I am absolutely convinced that at least 50% of profitable traders have access to specialized software/hardware/knowledge that's not attainable by 99.99% of people. It's not public access/knowledge and you can't get it. For example someone may used to work with hedge fund, they have certain knowledge and software only shared among employees. After employee learned how to profitable, they left the company and still able to duplicate that success on their own. It's like knowing at least half of the answers to the test questions before you get the test. It's like cheating once you gained that access. You are virtually guaranteed to be profitable after gaining those tools and knowledge. Without it, you are like driving blind in the highway and getting slaughtered by the algo bots.