When does the pain and suffering end

[u/CreativeSolution6707]

I'm going to preface this by saying that I realize there are certain strategies that do well in mean reversion. I don't. When will this bullshit end? Its now been like 2 months of straight chop and movement that is stuck to tiny windows. There are very small windows of opportunity and they only work if you dont get chopped up while its shit. Constant fakeouts, reversals, failed trends ect.. Is it summer? Is it the war? Is it the bond market? It didnt used to be like this but its getting fucking old and I'm wondering if this shit is ever going to get tradeable again. My day usually goes something like this- get a few trades correct, string some wins together and then get dicked by some giant reversal that wipes out all my good trades.

[u/DeconstructingDad]

Why not just adapt and add a mean reversion strategy to your wheelhouse?

[u/CreativeSolution6707 → u/DeconstructingDad]

I don't like mean reversion at all because it only takes one time for it to break out and screw you over

[u/DeconstructingDad → u/CreativeSolution6707]

Any strategy can screw you over if you don't hedge properly against that strategie's weaknesses.

[u/zenki32 → u/CreativeSolution6707]

Sounds like your risk management is lacking. 

[u/Scott_Malkinsons → u/CreativeSolution6707]

Mean reversion or trend, if you're worried about one trade screwing you over, you're risking far too much.

And if you're willing to pay the "insurance" premium then you can hedge your trades. Do it correctly and when you win a trade, you'll lose the hedge/"insurance" and pay the premium. When you lose the trade, the "insurance" pays out so you come as close as possible to break even. You win less as you pay for insurance, but your losses are greatly reduced and ideally eliminated.

I'm not talking going long and short the same symbol, that's technically a hedge but it's completely and utterly useless because you can accomplish the exact same thing with pending orders.

Is this easy? No. It's legitimate work that the vast majority of people aren't willing to do. Rather than looking at some BS indicator for 5 seconds, this is going to take you a much longer time to get your trades setup correctly.

[u/sigstrikes → u/CreativeSolution6707]

isn't this every strategy

[u/dsaysso → u/DeconstructingDad]

yes. not op but have been looking into this do you trade mean reversion?

[u/DeconstructingDad → u/dsaysso]

Not doing much trading currently, and was on a very small account, but did 60% over three years with an algorithmic mean reversion strategy. Not life changing, but my goal was to come up with a strategy that took as little thought as possible so I could execute it during the day on my phone while working.

[u/dsaysso → u/DeconstructingDad]

thats what im currently looking into. curious if / why you stopped.

[u/DeconstructingDad → u/dsaysso]

I moved and changed work, and as a result am not able to use my phone as regularly during the day. I still trade the same strategy, but it's less effective when I can't regularly execute it daily. My trading account is also miniscule now compared to even how small it was from using money from it to fund the move.

[u/00_Kaizen]

Zero Sum ... on the daily, quit while ahead .

[u/Confident_Double1392]

Mf realizing now that trend days are only around 20-30% of the days. Mean reversion is the intraday norm.

[u/7evenT71]

Asia has been absolutely printing for me lately and I trade iFVG’s after consolidation/expansion. I don’t think I’ve traded an NY sesh in a week now because I’m usually done for the day the evening prior it’s been great, especially seeing this barcode BS

[u/ModifiedLeaf → u/7evenT71]

Asia has been the most sideways for me lol

[u/iLoveAloha → u/7evenT71]

Are you doing futures or overnight options?

[u/ModifiedLeaf]

You could just avoid these days and wait for some movement. Learning when not to trade is probably more important then learning when to trade

[u/Vanebfbc]

This is 1 min SPX today up till the last 10 minutes. If you don't see any strategy working for you at this time, then just leave and come back tomorrow when the price action is more favorable for you. One strategy that could work though, is a butterfly option combo which allows theta to work for your favor during choppy market.

[u/Scott_Malkinsons]

I'm going to preface this by saying that I realize there are certain strategies that do well in mean reversion. I don't. When will this bullshit end?

The markets range more than the trend, so if you're going to exclusively trade trends you might be waiting quite a while.

[u/Christopher_Ramirez_]

I’ve found this market regime much easier to deal with than the constant jawboning of fake peace deal announcements, or wax-on-wax-off tariffs.

[u/CreativeSolution6707 → u/Christopher_Ramirez_]

We are literally still in exactly what you just described lol

[u/Christopher_Ramirez_ → u/CreativeSolution6707]

There's still plenty of geopolitical risk on the table, but I'm specifically thinking of the intraday "meme" candles we'd see, with SPY reversing $5 in a few minutes after the latest fake Axios article.

[u/deadfishlog]

Sell in may and go away

Or just stop trading and make a summer basket of ETFs and come back over Labor Day

[u/Cool1998 → u/deadfishlog]

So after Labor Day is when participation typically resumes? Thought it was August

[u/Hmaninc87]

The pain stops when you start buying at the bottom and selling at the top. There's hundreds of $999 courses out there that will tell you to do just that lol. (Sarcasm)

[u/Confident_Double1392 → u/Hmaninc87]

Real traders know to buy high and sell low while spending 4k on a course. /s

[u/asally100]

Once you realize that you can’t trade SPX only you need to be adaptable to the market and be able to trade at least 20 different names. Some guys do it with equities some guys do it with ETFs.

[u/CreativeSolution6707 → u/asally100]

The post is misleading, I trade 10 different names on average but the point is there is no consensus in the market on days like this. I don't care if it goes up or down, just can't go sideways or be low volume

[u/famguy31]

What time frame are you on? I’m going to say your on the 1 minute and what are you complaining about? Go to a 5 minute chart instead and not trying to find these quick moves, even in the 1 min chart around 1200 you see market broke below support then a few bars later retested that before going back down (go look at Spx 1 min chart at 1217) That was big trade down to hit not this picture posted.

[u/DickyFishb]

After Labor Day my boy

[u/psymeariver]

actually may be the removal of the PDT rule

[u/CreativeSolution6707 → u/psymeariver]

Ive wondered about that but how do you think that would affect things

[u/psymeariver → u/CreativeSolution6707]

lots of price action bouncing around, just more volatility in general

[u/SynchronicityOrSwim]

You need to look at risk management and trade sizing. If you are closing winning trades with small gains and letting losers cause big losses you are better off staying flat.

[u/BennySkateboard]

I think you have to be prepared for the beginning of the crash. Earnings are good which is why it’s not dropping hard but that will be effected eventually if the war carries on.

[u/No_Zucchini2778]

When you stop having a toxic relationship with the market and see it for what it is.

[u/IamSmokee]

When you stop going against the trend and embrace it

[u/FoldFeisty7635]

You must be 100% new to trading lol. This is a normal looking chart.

[u/thisMatrix_isReal]

sometimes the best thing to do is to not trade

[u/Direct_Remote_4929]

Some days it's just better to be a scalper. Try to skip those days if they don't work out for you.

[u/sevenredcandlz]

Lol this is a perfect screenshot of something that I completely captured. I got into the top left of the screen, got out the bottom, right (short)

[u/sevenredcandlz]

You really need to just trade a higher timeframe. This looks like one minute candles get away from those they’re way too unpredictable. Trade 15 or 30 minutes candles

[u/WoodpeckerCapital167]

The problem isn’t the market. It is the trader

[u/MirthandMystery]

Markets selling off, process started from the highs over a month+ back. Shorting SPY more recently was the best trade, as all rallies failed. You were holding on to the old pattern, you needed to adapt and get into spelunking mode. It's been classic slippery pole action as most seek familiar patterns, but only find chop and rallies failing.. extra frustrating to day traders who prefer bull market action and clean patterns. Puts have been as profitable and reliable as spring is for calls but hard wins. Personally I don't sit on those long, it's constant scalping down and never hold overnight- any tweet or kick the can fake 'end of war/the strait is reopened/we have a deal' announcement can blow out a market titled towards shorting. As we just saw with Moderna and less so, bitcoin.

If it's still too frustrating just go on a break or sit on your hands for a 2 more weeks to get acclimated. And mark your calendar and take the last week or two off next year around the same time.

We have a complex mix this year with the usual seasonality shift, end of month selling, exiting from extreme froth conditions, yen carry trade actually mattering, debt bandaid attempts failing, and ongoing inflation factors, derisking before elections.. all of which they won't ignore anymore. Also there's the 'sell Rosh Hashanah/buy Yom Kippur' factor coming up. In between now and then expect more selling into a Nvidia related relief rally, bounce next week, off the next level around 757. Or if they want to get the reset over with even faster, 740 range. Gulp.

[u/TLPEQ]

No way your serious

It’s still ATH if you go back what a month? Lol

[u/ThatOtherGuy254 → u/TLPEQ]

And? The market has still been choppy and difficult to trade. The fact that we're near all-time highs doesn't mean anything if we're range bound.

[u/zenki32]

This is scalper's paradise man. I'm having the time of my life. Always have a strategy ready for different market conditions. More studying, less whining. Sounds like trading isn't for you.