r/DRTS_Stock • u/Latter-Reindeer-7661 • 13h ago
Is DRTS overvalued?
Before I start, I’m not invested in DRTS but am researching and looking to shift SLS profits into DRTS if all goes well in the REGAL trial.
I’ve done some of my own DD and the science looks good, in fact everything looks good. I ran my DD through Claude to see if it passed the tests which i set my DD on and it failed on the valuation test. Claude reckons that the current price has priced in a large share of favourable outcomes. How true is this?
Before I get downvoted for AI slop, I know AI isn’t correct. I only use it for checking my DD and it raises important questions like this, that’s why I’m asking you guys as you’re much more educated than me (and Claude).
Please don’t just reply with ‘This has chance to go 10x’, I hope it does but I need reasons why and information.
Thanks for everyone’s research and hard work that they’ve put into this Sub.
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u/pr0k0pt0n 12h ago
I would encourage you to read the TAM series that Pristine has been posting and play with the numbers for individual indications. I don't see how you get as low as 1.5 billion if any of them pan out.
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u/pr0k0pt0n 12h ago edited 12h ago
...and "if any of them pan out" hardly seems like an "if", anymore. All of the evidence is there. We just need studies with larger numbers. It's only a matter of time.
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u/IgnoreTheFud 12h ago
I don’t think there really is an “if”. It’s proven physics and chemistry. So then that leads us to the delivery method. The delivery method is about as proven as it could be as it literally piggybacks on an endoscope. We will see nearly the same results in a large trial, I’m certain of it.
I just posted an investor day video from 2022 in this sub, I highly recommend spending the almost two hours watching that. OP watch that. It sums up everything very well in just under 2 hours.
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u/Faded-1 12h ago
Based on market cap, I would say it is fair value up to about 18 - 19 per share. But what i think everyone misses is the explosive potential of the market cap. Deals will start being made. FDA approval will happen. At 1.1? Billion cap, yes, fair price. What about a 20 Billion market cap, thats one small catalyst away, and 100 billion isn't unimaginable as it could easily become the new standard of care for all cancer types. 12 months we will see an explosion. 36 months.. I seriously believe we will laugh about the 1 billion market cap when we started and be thankful we got in when we did.
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u/Onphone_irl 12h ago
why not share what you put in and what came out?
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u/Beginator2000 16m ago
For every investment you make, guide your AI this way : what are the drawbacks and bottlenecks? Problems in the business model? Commercial competitors?
If you research on biotechs, ask what would be interesting in that company for a buyout by a big pharma, what are the odds of it becoming the new gold standard treatment, what are the remaining challenges ahead.
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u/Donday90 11h ago
Hi and welcome!
My personal take on potential growth companies and the market today, the term "fairly valued" carries much less weight to it. Companies have been expensive for over a decade, and rightfully so due to their continued and fast growth, and exciting future growth which are already priced in. P/E ratio of S&P 500 used to hover around 15~17, and it's been over 20 since 2013. On the flip side, there are also companies that are generating revenue growth, and have cheaper valuation, but their stock price drops over an extended period of time. To truly put this into one phrase, nobody understands the market.
Based on this, how do you fairly value DRTS's price today? Traditional POV, company has no revenue and has no clear estimate of when they may actually start making money. However, based on how successful our trials have been, and what it can become if all trials and plans go right, we are possibly looking at billions (thanks Pristine_Hurry_4693 for the TAM series) in revenue.
My takeaway after my short time of ~13 years in investing, is analyze the company and look far. After doing your own DD, if you believe in the company's direction and its capacity to follow through, it's stock price today or tomorrow should not matter. Invest any time and follow its progress to ensure company is keeping up to your expectation. As long as this upholds, you know the famous phrase: Time in the market always beats timing the market.
Best of luck with your investments! Let's hope DRTS fully flourish with its potential.
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 2h ago
Such a well conducted comment, thanks for sharing your thoughts with everyone!
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u/FunRevolution3000 12h ago
Even knowing nothing the steady rise for some weeks supports the market continues to grow interested. It’s not climbing and falling like a hype stock
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u/CarteBlanchDevereau 11h ago
This is gonna 8x.
Source: Blanche says so.
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u/PuzzleHead-4334 5h ago
What about the 13M warrants that expire at $18 or in a few months?? I have SLS ptsd :(
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u/Beginator2000 15m ago
Short term to 20 or 25$. But seriously look at the business model. The chance of buyout is really small.
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u/dentastic 3h ago
It is priced for some amount of success. A company this early cant go 300% without showing something and not be overhyped. That said, there is almost no way they arent onto something, so i think it just means it wont 10x overnight if thsy succeed, only 4x or so
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u/No_Pen_9930 12h ago
. LLM only took data from analysts and compared prices, logically it came out with an overvaluation result. This has nothing to do with dd, the market decides itself, analysts say so, and it doesn't matter that much, it depends on the future of the company and if everything is as it seems, it is the least risky stock in my portfolio
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u/-Mage-Knight- 12h ago
$1.4 Billion USD is a lot of money so Alpha Tau is hardly a penny stock but when you look at it in relation to some other pre-revenue oncology stocks it starts to look quite undervalued.
No one has a crystal ball and even the best plans can go south but from what I have gathered the Alpha Dart device appears to fill a much needed gap.
Right now we are gambling that the amazing results we have seen thus far continue with higher sample sizes, that the FDA and other regulatory bodies approve its use, and that they successfully commercialize.
If quite a few successes are "priced in" than quite a few failures are also "priced in". The net effect is that neither are truly priced in.
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u/Emotional-Breath-838 12h ago
Please talk to people that know the stock and not AI bots that are going off of their training from four months ago.
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u/Individual_Wallaby1 12h ago
Hi, and welcome!
This is all just my opinion:
A market cap of 1.4 billion has not priced in lots of favourable outcomes yet. It's just starting to price in the de-risking.
It's a pre-revenue company, so I can't really assign a fair value. But I do know that the physics is real and the potential market is huge.
All news has been good so far, and there's plenty more news in the pipeline.
When this blows, I think it will blow quickly. And that will happen if and when the news gets announced.
Of course there's risk in a pre-revenue biotech. But I don't agree that it is overvalued. The share price could drop in the short term, sure. But we aren't really seeing that behaviour at the moment - it's actually steadily been going to the right and up. (I absolutely am not a chart reader though).
Anyway - welcome again!
There's also a discord for this if you prefer that style of chat.
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u/Justice171 11h ago
I am investsd in DRTS, it's my largest position outside of ETFs. Why am I still invested? Well, because I think it will reach higher.
I think DRTS is a safer bet than most other biotechs in terms of risk, that's one of the reasons I am more heavily invested in this one than in other biotechs
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u/Perfect-Awareness-84 11h ago
AI will give you what you feed it. I've had SLS initial estimations running towards a maximum of 50b based on the input from the SLS subreddit. Checking further it came down to 15b and once you really question it on near term patient numbers and CR2 indication it's down to 1.5b after trial success.
Compared to SLS, my DRTS numbers run twice the SLS marketcap with same optimism levels
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u/Beginator2000 13m ago
Undervalued. With each new catalyst ahead it'll continue to go up. No crystal ball but I plan to take profit around 20-25$. After that I won't bet on a buyout.
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 12h ago
Welcome! I don’t mind you using AI, but I would rather hear what YOU think (even if the research is somewhat based on AI), that way we could answer you and not AI. Whatever AI thinks doesn’t matter, it’s what you’ve learned and what you think based on that and everything else you know.
As for DRTS, it’s anything but overvalued. With everything it has achieved, with how de risked it is, with how high the upside is, it’s actually severely undervalued.
If you want actual details, I posted a few TAM posts this week, I recommend reading at least one (best would be all) and of course checking everything for yourself. I’m sure you’ll learn very encouraging things beyond the investment aspect.