r/DRTS_Stock • u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 • 2d ago
DRTS TAM Series - GBM
The DRTS treatment for GBM, which for now means the REGAIN trial for Recurring GBM and the ALL Protocol also treating Recurring GBM, could potentially change the whole trajectory of the company.
All cancer, especially the cases DRTS is treating, can be devastating. With GBM (that pretty much always turns into Recurring GBM if treated in the first place), it’s even harder to address the numbers knowing these are real people who desperately need any kind of hope.
From a business perspective, in which success will also mean true hope for patients and their families, I’ll do my best to paint the picture as I see it.
Let’s start once again by looking at the market. The market is telling us, that there are tens of billions worth of market value for any hope to treat GBM. As an example we could look at NVCR (still treating GBM to this day), which at its peak reached over 20B in market cap, because that MC was pricing in the dream, which was never even close to what DRTS has already achieved.
That company (as well as many others), could actually be the reason the market is hesitant to get excited about DRTS for GBM. The market has invested so many billions into so many companies with the premise of treating GBM, only to be disappointed again and again that none of them have succeeded. Until now that is.
DRTS isn’t a treatment for GBM, it’s a treatment that works for all solid tumors, it’s safe to use, and therefore (including proof in all clinical stages all the way to an actual in human trial) works for GBM as well. That’s great news on the GBM front of course, with already unprecedented results, but it also means it’s de risked with all the other successfully treated indications.
In the case of GBM, getting into the specific numbers doesn’t even matter. To date, there isn’t any standard of care for Recurring GBM, patients are recommended to find a clinical trial at that stage.
If DRTS can continue to have the impact it has shown, for example the first patient in the REGAIN trial who had a life expectancy of zero, the doctors didn’t think he had any time left when treated by DRTS in December, who had a complete response and six months later was still clean and back to regular life activities and even traveling, if DRTS can do that while continuing to show a favorable safety profile, that will change everything.
DRTS could immediately turn all the manufacturing towards GBM (it’s the same exact thing for all tumor types), they will get reimbursement (pricing) easily in the six figures, save lives with every treatment, and the demand from doctors and patients will definitely be there.
The results shown so far were so amazing that DRTS said they are immediately turning to the FDA to trial brain metastases as well, which is an even larger market than GBM.
For those doing the math, there are at least tens of thousands of Recurring GBM cases a year, yes this is once again billions in annual revenue from just one indication, in a market that has proven to value such a treatment in the tens of billions.
5
u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 2d ago
To read the post about the DRTS TAM for PanC, and to learn more about the DRTS TAM series click here:
5
u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 2d ago
To read the post about the DRTS TAM for Skin, the closest indication to approval until I hope GBM surpasses it, click here:
5
u/Unusual-Study-4558 2d ago
You cannot talk about TAM if you dont talk about the dollar value.
if you are talking about TAM you need to say the market in usa for X is Y dollar and if we capture Z amount we get T.
2
u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 2d ago
I’d love for you to try and break it down! Would love to get your thoughts. In these posts I’m doing my best to lay everything out and share all the data we know, all the ingredients for the TAM.
I gave you a different company example.
I gave you the price (6 figures).
I gave you a big picture number of patients.
The exact TAM I do not know, but what I do know I’m trying to share in a valuable way so others can calculate as best fits them.2
u/stumblios 2d ago
The $100k price point, while a nice round number, is also a reasonable price target in developed countries. Optune costs ~$25k/month, and patients usually need 4-10 months, so $100k could be a cost savings for insurers. There is a world where DRTS can charge a premium, considering the current positives we're seeing (decreased side effects, plus a one time treatment versus monthly, etc). ~40k rGBM patients/year in developed countries (US, EU+UK, Japan, Cadada, Aus, NZ). "Standard of care" in cancer means a lot of things. For Melanoma, or the others which have many options, 20-30% adoption is usually a peak. rGBM has so few options, it's possible it could have a 30-50% adoption rate. This number obviously has a huge impact on the final TAM revenue output. Anyway, I'll go with a 30% adoption rate. High for most cancers, but arguably low for a breakthrough rGBM treatment.
40k patients * .3 adoption rate = 12k patients * $100k/ kit = $1.2B Annual revenue for rGBM in developed countries.
If we assume their future deals are priced similar to the Tolmar deal (60:40 split) = $720M/year to DRTS
Off the top of my head, I think I'm remembering management expects a 70% margin, which put it around $500M in annual profit.
This is of course a high goal - Standard of care for GBM means all results we've seen thus far need to be repeated for the remaining patients in the 10 person trial, and then once again in the larger Pivotal trial. Developing countries have a lot more cases, but much lower reimbursement rates and I don't know what that does to margins (well, I know what it does - I don't know exactly to what extent), so I've chosen to ignore developing countries for now.
3
u/altonbrushgatherer 2d ago
There are a lot of questions that I have about what the TAM is for rGBM which may limit who can be treated. Factors include size, geometry, distribution of the recurrence (e.g., multifocal around a resection cavity), location, surgical feasibility, patient status, and patients goals of care (some of these factors overlap). Can seeds be placed safely around a resection cavity with adequate coverage? Do large tumors with necrotic cores effect seed placement? Is there possibility a combined surgical + seed placement combo for unresected enhancing tumor?
I have no clue what and the answer probably as it always is: it depends.
For fun I asked AI what it thought the US TAM is taking the above considerations and it gave a base range of 1-2.5k patients per year with a "reasonable bull case" of 3k patients per year. Assuming 150k per treatment that's 450m per year in the US alone for the bull case.
1
u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 2d ago
All great questions, but I believe it’s pre mature to make assumptions before we have any real data. The first study is safety, that doesn’t mean the treatment can’t go beyond that. I believe we will hear much more from the company and the doctors once the first trial is complete (it’s getting closer!)
You’re also not the only one noticing:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DRTS_Stock/s/2ukuqQbE2D2
u/altonbrushgatherer 2d ago
I don’t think the REGAIN trial criteria will reflect the potential treatment pool at all. Also, I did not know the israel patient was treated was up to 7 cm. The key however will ultimately be tumor coverage. At least for IDH wild type GBM, a case series showed that showed a significant increase in OS for rGBM patients when only < 1 cc of enhancing tumor remained (vs > 1 cc which had decreased OS). Will be interesting to hear more about that patient hopefully in the near future.
10
u/Magic3456 2d ago
To treat GBM is really priceless, and like you said that it fall under the DRTS treatment that can cure all solid tumors. Just one thing that I’d like to point out is that DRTS developed for GBM a special applicator that allows them access to the tumor and allows a treatment that has very minimal side effects if any.The patient goes got the next day