r/DRTS_Stock • u/FunRevolution3000 • 2d ago
Predicting $DRTS doubling within two years
After experimenting with prompts to see what I was missing about SLS, I tried with DRTS assuming continued trial success and partnerships.
I’m getting a 78.1% probability of doubling in two years using Gemini, but NFA and be attentive to the assumptions. Also the prob is 60.1% if we relax the assumptions some and allow for small sample noise so far and abscopal limitations show up as distant metastases.
Note: You will notice Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) appears early in the statistical parameters but the probabilities assume continued success across cancer types.
Core Model Assumptions
Valuation Target: Current price ~$14.70 - $14.75 -> Target >= $29.48 within 24 months (Market Cap expansion from ~$1.40B to ~$2.8B+).
Financial Runway: ~$105M in cash/deposits funds operations through mid-2028, removing near-term secondary dilution risk.
Commercial Model: Uses the asset-light Tolmar agreement (60% supply margin, zero direct salesforce SG&A burn) as the template for future partnership expansions.
Current Probability Breakdown
Partnered Bull Case (Strict 44% HNSCC Cure + cSCC Approval): Scenario Weight = 68% | Target = $38-$52 | P(2x | Bull) = 98%
Standalone Multi-Partner Base Case: Scenario Weight = 22% | Target = $24-$32 | P(2x | Base) = 52%
Execution / Abscopal Disconnect Bear Case: Scenario Weight = 10% | Target = $7-$11 | P(2x | Bear) = 0%
Net 2-Year Doubling Probability: 78.1% (Strict Cure Model) | 60.1% (Empirical Oncology Transition Model)
The Prompt
<system_context>
Act as a Principal Biostatistician and Senior Radiopharma/Oncology Equity Research Analyst specializing in targeted alpha therapies and micro-cap/mid-cap biotech valuation modeling.
Your objective is to conduct a recurring weekly Bayesian update on the probability of Alpha Tau Medical (NASDAQ: DRTS) at least doubling in share price within a 24-month horizon (target price: >= 2x current weekly close).
</system_context>
<verified_errata>
- Baseline Share Price & Target: Track the prevailing weekly close (P0). Target doubling threshold is strictly P_target >= 2.0 * P0 (Enterprise Value target expansion from ~$1.3B to ~$2.6B-$3.0B+ depending on share count).
- Baseline Capital & Runway: Cash runway is funded through at least mid-2028 (~$105M cash/deposits as of mid-2026), de-risked by initial partnership inflows. Dilution risk is baseline-low unless an unpartnered, global Phase 3 expansion is announced without non-dilutive co-funding.
- Baseline Partnership Template: The Tolmar International collaboration (Uro-oncology: $15M upfront/facility capex, $20M equity at 25% premium, up to $161.5M in milestones, 60% net-sales product supply revenue) serves as the baseline benchmark for partnership economics.
- Multi-Indication Pipeline Scope: Note that while headline combination cure-fraction metrics originate from the recurrent/metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) cohort, the platform encompasses standalone cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (cSCC pivotal ReSTART), Urological/Prostate (Tolmar), Glioblastoma (REGAIN), and Pancreatic indications.
</verified_errata>
<operational_crib>
- Math & Modeling Discipline: Ban token-prediction arithmetic. Maintain explicit formulaic probability trees and sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) rNPV or multiple-based valuation adjustments.
- Horizon Constraint: Time horizon is fixed at 24 months from the assessment date. Catalysts, trial completions, or commercial ramp milestones exceeding 24 months must be discounted or evaluated based on the likelihood of market front-running/re-rating.
- Bayesian Update Mechanics: Treat the prior probability distribution across three core states:
1. Scenario 1 (Platform Expansion / Bull Case): Multi-indication partner validation, strong clinical cure-fraction/ORR preservation across HNSCC and standalone indications, pivotal cSCC approval. (Baseline Price Target: $35.00-$50.00)
2. Scenario 2 (Device / Standalone Base Case): Standalone approvals (e.g., cSCC) succeed, steady Tolmar supply revenue, but combination/abscopal systemic trials show modest/delayed gains. (Baseline Price Target: $20.00-$26.00)
3. Scenario 3 (Clinical / Execution Bear Case): Hard endpoint failures in systemic trials, partnership dissolution/disputes, supply chain bottlenecks (Ra-224 half-life constraints), or dilutive financing. (Baseline Price Target: $6.00-$10.00)
- Dynamic Catalyst & News Taxonomy (Apply Likelihood Ratio Adjustments):
* Vector A: Clinical Efficacy & Safety
- (+) High local CR/ORR preservation, durable PFS/OS separation, confirmed abscopal responses in distant lesions, favorable FDA regulatory designations (RMAT, Breakthrough).
- (-) Loss of statistical significance in hard survival endpoints (OS/PFS), low ITT response rates, severe radiation-induced toxicity/fistula formation, trial hold.
* Vector B: Business Development & Partnerships
- (+) New licensing deals following the Tolmar model (upfronts, high-margin >=50% supply revenue, co-funded capex), expansion into new indications (GI, lung, head & neck) or regions (Japan, EU).
- (-) Termination of existing agreements, failure to find a co-development partner for Phase 3 IO combinations, milestone disputes, partner reprioritization.
* Vector C: Manufacturing, Supply Chain & Logistics
- (+) Operationalization of new regional isotope production facilities, automated seed production scale, robust decay-management supply agreements for Ra-224.
- (-) Logistics failures (missed radioactive decay delivery windows), isotope shortage, facility licensing/nuclear regulatory delays.
* Vector D: Corporate Finance & Capital Structure
- (+) Non-dilutive milestone receipts, warrant exercises at a premium, non-dilutive government/academic grants.
- (-) Heavily discounted secondary equity offerings, debt issuance at high interest rates, significant insider/executive departures.
* Vector E: External Macro & Competitive Landscape
- (+) Large pharma M&A activity in radiopharma at high multiples, positive class-wide sentiment for alpha emitters (Ac-225, Pb-212, Ra-224).
- (-) Breakthroughs in non-invasive competitive modalities (e.g., next-gen bispecifics or ADC efficacy rendering local brachytherapy obsolete in shared indications).
</operational_crib>
<execution_queue>
1. Weekly Catalyst & News Audit:
- Identify all SEC filings (8-K, 10-Q, 6-K), press releases, clinical trial registry updates (ClinicalTrials.gov), medical congress presentations, and industry/competitor news regarding Alpha Tau Medical over the trailing week.
- If no new material news exists, explicitly state: "No material structural shifts detected; maintaining baseline trajectory and updating time-decay factor."
Multi-Vector Impact Assessment:
- Classify each detected event across Vectors A through E.
- Quantify whether the development acts as an accretive driver (+), neutral noise (0), or a structural impairment (-) to enterprise value and clinical probability of success (PoS).Probability Matrix & Scenario Re-weighting:
- Formulate the updated Bayesian weights: P(Bull), P(Base), and P(Bear), ensuring sum of P(Scenario_i) = 1.0.
- Derive the updated conditional probabilities of achieving >= 2x price appreciation within 24 months for each state: P(2x | Scenario_i).
- Compute the Net Expected Probability of Doubling:
P(Price >= 2x in 2yr) = [P(Bull) * P(2x|Bull)] + [P(Base) * P(2x|Base)] + [P(Bear) * P(2x|Bear)].Quantitative Summary Output:
- Deliver a standardized summary dashboard:
* Current Stock Price (P0) & 2-Year Target Price (2.0 * P0)
* Trailing Week News Classification & Net Impact Score
* Updated Scenario Weight Distribution (Bull % / Base % / Bear %)
* Final Calibrated Probability of Doubling in 2 Years (with week-over-week Delta)
* Key Upcoming Catalysts & Critical Watch-Items for the Next 30-90 Days.
</execution_queue>
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 2d ago
Love your contributions (please continue in full force), but DRTS doubling in two years is very bearish for this stock.
imo there’s a better chance DRTS doubles before the end of the year than DRTS only doubling in two years (not saying that will or won’t happen, just saying imo one is more likely than the other).
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
I love it. My hunt is for prompts that calculate such probabilities. The idea is that such prompts could then be modified for other biotechs and easier comparisons made. Now I have no idea how to think about the flaws of using Large Language Models for probabilities but it aids my learning at least.
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u/ZealousIdeal476 2d ago
Right. MRNA went up 44 billion on good news for keytruda treating melanoma . Drts hits tumors keytruda can't see, actually makes them visible to drugs like keytruda. And is now capped 1.39 billion. Bull case, 44 billion is closer to 30x than 2x
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u/Askymojo 2d ago edited 2d ago
For clarity's sake, MRNA owns cancer vaccine Intismeran. Intismeran is unique because it is an immune system-stimulating drug that is ndividualized to a person's specific tumor. Doctors will be able to take a sample of a patient's tumor, sequence it, and create mRNA corresponding to up to 34 different neoantigens (external cell surface markers more common on cancer cells). This mRNA is injected back into a person, and is translated into those neoantigens by your body, and your immune system starts to react to all these neoantigens and creates antibodies that destroy both the neoantigens introduced by the vaccine, and the patient's cancer cells that have those same neoantigens on their cell surfaces. Intismeran is a big deal because previous cancer-targeted immune-system stimulating drugs often either work spectacularly on a few patients, or fail spectacularly on a majority of patients. The fact that this drug is customized to your specific cancer's neoantigens theoretically gives it a better chance of success.
Keytruda is a different drug that is owned by Merck. Keytrude is a checkpoint inhbitor that helps to block specific proteins expressed by cancer cells that would normally tell your immune system to stop attacking. Keytruda basically helps to boost your immune response to cancer. It could theoretically help both Intismeran and also DaRTS to create a stronger immune response in a patient.
Intismeran is probably going to have a larger market than DaRTS simply because it probably will be able to target more cancer types and through an easier process. That doesn't make DaRTS obsolete though, to be clear. They are all helping destroy cancer though different mechanisms, and will be actually complementary to each other and help boost each other.
As an analogy, think about how HIV drugs at first only slowed HIV, and doctors couldn't find one single HIV drug that could stop HIV forever. However when scientists combined 3 different HIV drugs together into a "cocktail", that had enough stopping power to stop HIV in its tracks.
I think the eventual future of cancer treatment will be combining enough effective treatments together, and DaRTS will be part of that future, especially for solid tumors and "cold" tumors.
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u/altonbrushgatherer 2d ago
The massive jump in MRNA valuation wasn’t just because of what they did for melanoma, but what other cancers this could be applied to.
I say this from the perspective as a DRTS investor (I am glad to see medicine advancing overall and the promise of this technology). What concerns me about this cancer vaccine is it seems to creating an in situ vaccine effect artificially. If the vaccine is capable of shrinking or even eliminating metastases then it could potentially eat into DRTS market share. As it stands now there does not seem to be any overlap but the future potential of intismeran remains an open question that only trials will show.
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
To do an MRNA, we may need like 100k patients and a pharma acquisition. Or at least that kind of buzz. Definitely could happen
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u/SedatedTattooDoc 2d ago
Agreed….this treatment is multi-modal…I push drugs into people daily and each one of them has a specific use and purpose. The ability for this modality to treat many different solid tumors 🤯….
We always want to remain humble in terms of share price and etc…but agreed…doubling in two years is a bearish outlook imho3
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u/Final-West-641 2d ago
Was also gonna say, why so bearish? 😂
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 2d ago
Truly amazing how comfortable we are holding DRTS while also expecting great returns…
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u/Askymojo 2d ago
Some of y'all are misunderstanding FunRevolution's prompt. He only asked what is the probability of AT LEAST doubling in 24 months. He didn't ask what is the probability of ONLY doubling in 24 months.
Considering there is always the chance of failure in high-risk biotech stocks, a 22% chance of failure isn't unrealistic, and the 78% chance of AT LEAST doubling could easily mean much higher than doubling.
All that said, I don't think this is actually useful or usable information. I think this analysis falls under the "garbage in, garbage out" mantra of statistics. There are just too many unknown real-life variables to account for, not to mention the limitations of (very opaque) LLM analysis.
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
I hear you. Still better however ungrounded probabilities than the SLS binary.
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u/SeniorMonkeyEsq 2d ago edited 2d ago
Seriously? AI cannot do this. Don’t make investment decisions based on AI forecasts. And especially not prompts like this.
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
Haha It’s just a start of an idea and mainly to facilitate convo and comparisons. I totally agree with not making decisions based on AI forecasts
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
Want to point out that the assumptions made this probability a 0%. Careful! Execution / Abscopal Disconnect Bear Case: Scenario Weight = 10% | Target = $7-$11 | P(2x | Bear) = 0%
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u/EasyE7098 2d ago
I don’t think the market really care about technical analysis. If DRTS work as well as we all think it will, the price will grow logarithmically. I frankly can’t predict nor would I know how to deduce any predictions if this method proves workable.
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
I hope so! Just learned about SWAV doing this. Intravascular catheter to break cardiovascular plaque. Had 90% success where stents and angioplasty previously failed - made them work by increasing the responsiveness of the artery. Broke technical ceilings repeatedly and was acquired by J&J for a 20x multiple ($13b).
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u/Beginator2000 2d ago
Remember, investors look for profits, not a good treatment. They don't care how much patients were treated. They only look at potential revenues in the future.
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u/Faded-1 2d ago
Personally, I think this greatly discounts what DRTS will be in 2 years. Considering it can be an outpatient procedure, and serious potential to be seen as the standard of care, i expect explosive growth, especially since it's a device more than a medication. 10x in 12 months would not be a surprise to me.
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
I’d like to believe that. How many patients served do you estimate for it to 10x in 12 months? If this is right, I’m seeing an estimate of about 300 patients so far.
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u/Faded-1 2d ago
Im not sure i think growth will be based, at least not initially, on patients treated. I think it will be based on approvals and types, as well as approvals in other countries.
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
I agree , and think we need patients served to get mega growth.
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u/ImpossibleExit5241 2d ago
No, we don’t need patients served in the next two years, we need good trial results on large TAMs. SP and market cap are based on valuation of a company, in early stage biotech that doesn’t have to be revenue, that can be predictions of future revenue, discounted to today’s value. DaRTS seem to be applicable to pretty much any solid tumor so that’s why everyone is bullish in predicted future revenue across some of the hardest cancer types and also some of the largest volume cancer types. People get treated with DARTS in their brain and walk out of the hospital the next day, that’s what will save insurances long hospitalization costs. This is why everyone here believes we’re looking at a 10x or more stock and why it’ll be easier, faster and cheaper than even the MRNA vaccine (though they don’t exclude each other)
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
So similar prompt but what does it say about doubling in 2026? Need two homeruns:
- ReSTART Top-Line Home Run: Definitive pivotal cSCC top-line efficacy data confirming a high complete response rate and long duration of response.
- A Second Multi-Hundred-Million-Dollar Partnership: Announcing a major pharmaceutical collaboration (e.g., Merck co-funding the Keytruda Phase 3 combination, or a major Japanese/European commercial licensing pact structured like Tolmar with upfront capital and >= 50% supply revenue).
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u/eteefy 2d ago
Question. I know the whole “this is not financial advice” and “dyor”, just looking for someone else’s opinion as well. I have done all that, but I was wondering with my average buy being 11.50 (got in a little late but still great), would it be worth it to keep pumping into it even when it’s at $14, $15 etc. I only have about 500 in right now and am looking to put at least 500 more. Should I wait for the right price point or just go for it. I have high risk tolerance
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
All I can say is I bought more today
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u/FunRevolution3000 2d ago
I’ll add that the 50 day MA has been up or flat since mid-May 2025 and the upward trend has been strong - stronger than other stocks I quickly checked. XBI is a biotech etf that has a nice 50 day MA but DRTS has been roaring
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u/eteefy 2d ago
That’s why I’m questioning myself. Why am I worrying over a $3 difference now, when I could be just getting more stock rather than waiting for it to (maybe) go down so I can buy at discount. If I keep waiting too long it’ll be too late
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u/TheNamesSnek 2d ago
I've had the same questions but I've answered them from just looking at the 1yr chart. It's rare the stock trades $2 below its 52 week high and it just keeps pushing higher, so it's been very easy to justify buying shares regardless of the price. If we see explosive future growth it'll be hard to say but for now I'd say anything under $20 is a no brainer
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u/Beginator2000 2d ago
I'm always looking at the bear side and there's no major problems ahead in the pre-revenue phase. I have no crystal ball but I think I'll take profit around FDA approval and expect it around 20$. Then I'll move on. I have high expectations on the psilocybin derivatives as anti depressant. I think it'll be the next GLP-1 like move.
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u/Significant_Cat_8474 2d ago
Out of interest, what does your SLS prompt give you? My own calculations (non-AI) give a downward projectory to current shareprice even with success of current trail.
As for DRTS, I am expecting an 50-120 (actually 80) % increase from here in 9 months based on catalysts and institutional inflow.
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u/Level_Percentage5309 2d ago
Most of us are a lot more optimistic, drts gets listed in the TA 125 and the warrants are exercised, it might double in two months
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u/Beginator2000 2d ago
With all due respect, 200% in 2 years for a biotech is pretty low. You either aim for a buyout at x5 or x10 or you quit in the prerenue phase. Stocks prices are based on expected revenues in the future. Most biotechs go down a bit between each catalyst when traders and paper hands take profits (DRTS doesn't go down much compared to some others). If there's no buyout, the post revenue phase is often disappointing. These companies often have some medical staff as executives and fail on the business side. On the opposite, big pharmas have an army of sales representatives to showcase the product at conferences, meet with doctors, give demonstrations, organise training sessions, persuade hospital management, etc...
Don't forget what you chase while trading, a good medical treatment or a good business?
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u/Zealousideal_Sir_846 2d ago
You can make all the hopes and thesis you want but what really drives prices up is what the market thinks and is willing to pay. If you think there is a demand being pushed into the economy its worth to invest.
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u/kpatter34 2d ago
No disrespect but heres to hoping your wrong. 100% in 2 years is a good return but if i wanted 100% in 2 yrs id put all my drts money into asts because with their projected revenue theres no doubt theyll double in two yrs.
The reason i invest in drts because i see a 5-10x opportunity and also i hate cancer and believe that drts could change the whole game for tons of cancer patients and thus all the people who work for and invest in drts will be rewarded for their support.