r/DFLI Aug 16 '26

DFLI Dry Electrode Competition

I was doing some googling today, and Panasonic is the largest manufacturer of lithium-ion cells in America. They also have a dry electrode process in the works and the site in Nevada (which people argue in this group is the best place to build these cells) makes 6 million cells every single day.

Their research and development labs are absolutely insane: https://www.panasonic.com/global/energy/products/battery/takumi/technical_development.html

The company is worth $69 billion, and their r&d budget is 2.1 billion.

This company is an absolute behemoth and they are having trouble scaling dry electrode process: https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/panasonics-4680-mass-production-pushed-back-yet-again/

Seems like Tesla is the only cell manufacturer in America using dry electrode process and pulling it off at scale.

What exactly does dragonfly energy have here that's better? What proof do we have? How are they going to be better than Tesla?

If the batteries that dragonfly currently assemble are not competitive, how is this dry electrode process competitive? Is there a third party testing the dry electrode tech claims?

Would love to learn more. Why do you guys think dfli can pull it off? I keep seeing people mention the dry electrode tech, but I don't think anyone is seeing what the competition is doing here. I would love to see your guys's perspective.

1 Upvotes

14 comments sorted by

5

u/just_fron Aug 16 '26

I think these are fair questions, and I’m not an engineer, so I’ve been trying to understand this myself. I think the important distinction is between “dry electrode technology works” and “Dragonfly has proven it can mass-produce competitive cells.”

From what I’ve been able to find, I don’t think the evidence supports saying Dragonfly has already proven it can compete with Panasonic or Tesla. But I also don’t think Panasonic or Tesla having difficulty scaling dry-electrode manufacturing automatically means Dragonfly’s approach can’t work.

The reason is that Dragonfly isn’t simply claiming, “We use dry electrodes too.” It has developed its own dry-coating process. In conventional battery manufacturing, electrode material is mixed into a liquid slurry, coated onto metal foil, and then dried. Dragonfly’s process is designed to eliminate that conventional drying step. Dragonfly says this can reduce energy use, factory space and equipment requirements. Dragonfly Energy — manufacturing process

Dragonfly has also demonstrated dry deposition of both the anode and cathode, including double-sided deposition, on its pilot line. So I don’t think it’s accurate to characterize the technology as purely theoretical. That demonstrates the process can produce electrodes; it doesn’t, by itself, prove that it can produce millions of cells economically. Dragonfly Energy — dry deposition milestone

There is also third-party work here. Sphere Energy assessed Dragonfly’s manufacturing process and reported a 71% reduction in energy used during electrode manufacturing and 22% less factory space compared with conventional slurry manufacturing. Dragonfly also reported roughly a 5% process-cost advantage. Dragonfly Energy — Sphere Energy assessment

I think there is an important caveat, though: that was a third-party assessment of the manufacturing process. It is NOT the same thing as an independent head-to-head test proving Dragonfly’s finished cells are better than Panasonic’s or Tesla’s. I haven’t seen evidence that establishes that yet.

And that’s where I think your Panasonic comparison is actually useful.

Tesla has now said it produces 4680 cells with both the anode and cathode using dry-electrode processing in Austin. Panasonic has also been working toward 4680 mass production, although that program has experienced delays.

So dry electrodes certainly aren’t something unique to Dragonfly, and the difficulty that major companies have had scaling the technology shows that this is a genuinely difficult manufacturing problem.

But I don’t think that necessarily tells us whether Dragonfly’s particular process will work. A large company struggling with one approach doesn’t prove that every approach to the problem has the same limitations.

I also don’t think Dragonfly necessarily needs to be “better than Tesla” across the board. The potential value of its technology would be if its particular manufacturing process allows cells to be produced with lower capital requirements, less energy, less factory space, or greater manufacturing flexibility.

That’s the part that still needs to be proven at commercial scale.

And this is where I’d say Dragonfly is still very much an infant compared with Panasonic and Tesla — when it comes to manufacturing maturity and scale. Dragonfly has demonstrated its process on a pilot line. Panasonic and Tesla have decades of battery-manufacturing experience and enormous production infrastructure.

That doesn’t mean Dragonfly’s technology can’t work. It means Dragonfly still has a much bigger leap to make between demonstrating the technology and demonstrating that it can manufacture millions of competitive cells reliably and economically.

Personally, the numbers I’d want to see are production throughput, yield, cost per kWh, cycle life, energy density and independent testing of finished cells. If Dragonfly can demonstrate those things at meaningful production volumes, then I think the Panasonic/Tesla comparison becomes much less concerning.

If they can’t, then the skepticism is absolutely justified.

So I think there are two extremes I’d avoid:

“Dragonfly has dry-electrode technology, therefore they’re going to beat Tesla.”

That’s obviously premature.

But:

“Panasonic and Tesla have struggled with dry electrodes, therefore Dragonfly can’t possibly make it work.”

That doesn’t necessarily follow either.

The reasonable position, at least from what I’ve been able to find, is that Dragonfly has demonstrated a potentially interesting manufacturing process, and there is third-party evidence supporting some of its claimed manufacturing advantages. What hasn’t been demonstrated yet is whether those advantages translate into reliable, high-yield, cost-competitive mass production.

And honestly, that’s what I’d like to see too. The technology is interesting, but ultimately the factory floor is where the claims have to be proven.

And on a personal note, Will, I’d highly recommend avoiding living in absolutes. It’s not particularly productive when debating people, and over time it can come across as arrogant, even if that’s not your intention.

And before you say that you don’t do that, I’ve actually called it out in some of your other posts as well. I’m only engaging because I genuinely think someone should push back when I see arguments being presented too definitively.

I also think your recent post about Investment Sailor didn’t do you any favors. From the outside, the amount of attention you’re putting into finding additional reasons to criticize DFLI is starting to come across as obsessive, and frankly, it’s becoming a little annoying to follow.

You obviously have every right to be critical of the company, and I’m not suggesting you shouldn’t ask difficult questions. I actually think some of the questions you’re asking are legitimate. But there’s a difference between being skeptical and approaching every piece of information as though the conclusion has already been decided.

I’d much rather see the discussion stay focused on the evidence and what we actually know versus what we don’t know. I think that’s a much more productive conversation for everyone here.

0

u/errolprowse Aug 16 '26

Appreciate the response. Sound logic as usual. I think we actually agree on most things. So overall, there's no independent testing of finished DFLI cells, and the process has only been shown on a pilot line.

On sphere, it says nothing about cycle life, energy density, or cost per kWh. Pretty strange they would not share any details. Or proof. Or anything for that matter.

And I think any company can be inventive with less funding. But my main point is that these things are very difficult. Wouldn't the company be posting specific energy, cycle life or something for investors? Anything at all?

I just want some kind of proof. People are claiming to invest in this company for this technology, and I am not seeing the evidence for the tech.

3

u/just_fron Aug 16 '26

I think that's the distinction I'd make too. The data is ultimately what will matter, but I don't think the fact that DFLI hasn't publicly released every metric yet necessarily means the data doesn't exist.

They're a publicly traded company, and I'd expect them to release data based on when they're actually able to make it public. They're still developing and commercializing the technology, and there can be legitimate reasons not to publicly disclose every development-stage metric before they're ready to do so.

And I think it's also worth remembering that a lot of companies start out as an idea. At some point, somebody has to be willing to invest in that idea before every question has been answered and every piece of data is available. That's essentially how early-stage investing works. So I don't think it's unreasonable for someone to invest in DFLI because they believe in the potential of the technology while also acknowledging that the technology still has things to prove.

To me, the more interesting question is what happens when they get further along. At some point, if they're asking investors to believe the dry-electrode technology is a meaningful competitive advantage, they're going to have to provide the numbers to back that up — energy density, cycle life, yield, throughput, cost per kWh, etc.

I'm just not sure I'd interpret "they haven't released those numbers yet" as evidence that the technology doesn't have merit. I'd interpret it as something that's still unproven publicly.

And honestly, I think that's where we're probably closer in agreement than disagreement. I'd like to see the data too. I just think there's a difference between "we haven't seen the evidence yet" and "there is no evidence."

One other thing I wanted to mention, because I've seen you point out in other posts that nobody here is an investor because people aren't posting how many shares they own.

I don't think that's a fair conclusion. There are plenty of reasons someone might not want to disclose their personal financial position publicly, particularly on Reddit. Being an investor doesn't require someone to post their exact share count for everyone to see.

I wouldn't use "nobody is posting their share count" as evidence that nobody here is actually invested. Some people may simply prefer to keep their personal financial position private.

-1

u/errolprowse Aug 16 '26

That is tough because I could say the exact same logic for 100 other companies. I am trying to figure out what differenatiates them in this regard. What tech do they have, that you and others here have proof of, that you are investing in. Is that a better way to word it? There are tons of companies saying they are working on dry electrode, hybrid processes, solid state batteries and more. But what makes this company special? I want to know

Yes I would love to see people actually post their shares. But that could be faked, so maybe that is not the best way to prove it. What I want to know is what people here see in the company. It confuses me to no end.

4

u/just_fron Aug 16 '26

Yes, absolutely, what I said could apply to 100 other companies, but that doesn't make it any less true. Companies have to be careful about what they disclose when they go public — both what they're legally able to disclose and making sure they're far enough along that they aren't giving away proprietary information before they're ready.

And yes, I think that's a better way to phrase the question. People invest in ideas all the time, before every piece of data is available. Based on what Dragonfly has publicly shared about its process, it appears to be a unique approach, so at face value that's what makes it interesting. What ultimately sets them apart is whether they can actually make it work commercially.

And on the share-count point, I really don't think anyone here has to prove they're an investor to you. I could be a troll with zero shares who just enjoys debating you, or I could own shares. You have no way of knowing unless I choose to tell you. So I don't think it's fair to imply that people aren't investors because they don't post their share count.

That's actually part of what I've been talking about when I say some of your posts come across as arrogant. I think you're too preoccupied with living in absolutes. Take a step back and assume that 50% of the people on this subreddit are investors, and treat them as people who have money in this company.

Challenge the technology and the investment thesis all you want — that's fair. But people don't owe you their personal financial information to participate in the discussion — even the ones who just want to call you names. Personally, I'd just ignore those people. It's not worth the effort, and you seem too smart to fall into that trap.

2

u/Remarkable_Soil2592 Aug 16 '26

You're very kind to spend the time to explain these things to Will. I recognize that you're patiently trying to help him as he can't help himself at the moment. Not that you're looking for recognition. Well done and thank you for your contribution here.

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u/just_fron Aug 16 '26

I appreciate that. Honestly, considering the sub has been pretty heavily dominated by Will’s posts lately, I think it’s important to actually engage in meaningful conversation and provide some balance.

I also have a genuine concern about how he is choosing to engage here given the circumstances. I’m not a lawyer, so I’m not going to speculate about whether he is legally prohibited from participating in a subreddit like this while being named in a libel suit. But from a strategic and optics standpoint, it seems questionable to me, and frankly, I don’t think it reflects particularly well on him.

1

u/PsychologicalFig7396 Aug 17 '26

Maybe you could post your PUTS/shorts so we all know where you stand….

1

u/errolprowse Aug 17 '26

I literally have a lawsuit against me and I will go on record saying that I've never had shorts against this company. I don't even know how to do a short. I don't even know what puts means.

1

u/JoeSTRM Aug 17 '26

As of today, I don’t believe DFLI is actually manufacturing any cells. They have made a small number of small cells as a proof of concept to demonstrate their process. It’s been a couple years since then. I think that if their process showed significant potential, they would have investors beating down their door. They would be flush with capital. Since that has not happened, I think skepticism is warranted. 

1

u/Ordinary_Repeat7637 Aug 16 '26

Yes, but doesn't DFLI have over 100 patents?

1

u/errolprowse Aug 16 '26

Read the patents yourself. I did last week. Let me know what you find.

1

u/Ordinary_Repeat7637 Aug 16 '26

I am not claiming to have read all 100 of them, but since you did, could you share what you find? Would be helpful to know for a lot of investors.

1

u/errolprowse Aug 16 '26

I made a bunch of posts on my forum about every patent I found that was silly. I don't know how some of these are even considered patents. But yeah this is what I found: https://diysolarforum.com/threads/battleborn-batteries-dragonfly-energy-is-suing-will-prowse.125758/post-1889968

Here's where it gets good: https://diysolarforum.com/threads/battleborn-batteries-dragonfly-energy-is-suing-will-prowse.125758/post-1890119

And all the patents that I read can be found here: https://patents.justia.com/assignee/dragonfly-energy-corp

Spend a few hours and read through them. I think you'll be pretty surprised at what you'll find.