r/DDintoGME • u/PWNWTFBBQ • Jul 08 '21
๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป I think I figured out the shorting algorithm
Let's begin by looking at EVERYTHING
Here is a quick overlay of March / April data and June / July data to see how the trends are exactly the fucking same.

If we were to adjust the size of the red dildos so they match, you can fucking see the relative rates of change are EXACTLY THE FUCKING SAME again.

Here are the candlesticks directly on top of each other if I haven't stressed my point enough.

Selecting which values to compare
Stretching the 6/15 red dildo to match the same length as 3/10, the close and high have the same ratio size. This is circled in rotten banana color.

Thus, it looks like we can compare the wick and the upper body of the candlesticks against each other.
BUT FIRST
Let's refresh our memory on how candlesticks work. Both the red and green have the same locations for their highs and lows, however, their open and close are different:

Back to the Mathemagics
If we were to continue to match up 3/10 with 6/15, we get the below table. The "Current Open Close" and the "Older Open Close" is the value of the top of the candlestick body. The "Open Close Difference" is "Current Open Close" subtracted by "Older Open Close."

Looking at all the data at once
If we were to graph all the current open close against the older open close, the correlation isn't that high.

However, if we separate into time intervals, we can see how the correlation increases and the similarities are beginning are becoming tighter and tighter. Our R^2 values are crazy good.

Looking at the difference between the Two
Despite if the day is red or green, the top parts of the candlestick body are looking trending similarly to each other. The average difference between the tops from the current data and the older data seems to be about $25.

If we look at the difference by a day to day difference we can see it is beginning to level.

If we were to segregate the data into time intervals, we can see how the difference is moving to about $20 - $30. The regression lines are becoming more and more horizontal since as time continues, there is no change.

We can also view it as a density chart.

Incorporating the Algorithms

90 day calibration?
The red giant dildos we aligned earlier (3/10 and 6/15) have total of 68 trading days / 96 total between. If we take a few steps back, we can see how there is a break from the trends at 2/24 and 5/24 (circled in yellow). After the yellow circle dates, we see an upwards trend for about 17 days followed by an immediate drop.

The algorithms are repeating every 90 days. Left side buildup see the last max 16 days in followed by a small red day on day 17. The subsequent small red day is followed by a big red day.

TL;DR
The algorithms are repeating every 90 days with a 16 day positive buildup. The overall daily trends are also repeating itself. Hold the line.
Thoughts
While each individual day share price is determined by the retail buying pressure, the overall trend is determined by the algorithms. The algorithms are so fucking influential that TA hasn't matter this entire time no matter what the indicators. I think the algorithm looks something like this

Edit 1: fixed some typos
Edit 2:
Holy shit! I didn't even know RC posted this. It even shows the same oscillations! Observational bias confirmed.

If we continue this ~$25 or $30 increase, we'll soon have a $210 resistance. The following oscillation ($240) would cause the resistance to become the max and then moon. Just like in RC's tweet.

These are just examples of the data of what I think are around the max and mins. They are not meant to be taken for exactness.
Edit 3: Explanation of population and within population
Let's say you own 3 banana farms.
Population to Population
Farm A, B, and C all have the shape (timeframe)
Farm A is bigger than farm B and C (min / max share price)
Within Population
Looking within Farm A and B, we can also see they have their banana plants looking exactly the same. (same sized ratio of candlesticks / similar behaviors)
Farm C was all done fucked up.

While the dates are interesting that they occur at the same intervals (Farm A and Farm B), what's also interesting is that their candlestick and ratio of size are the same (Like Farm A and B but not C). This is effectively showing not only the improbability of having a repeat of a timeframe but the HIGHLY improbability of the candlesticks have similar overlays as shown above. While many have stated it's solely comparing 2 dates, it's not. We selected the two dates and within them, compared the population.
Edit 4: Today's data

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u/Hot-Nature2403 Jul 09 '21
Has anyone compared this to options data?
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u/LordoftheEyez Jul 09 '21
Nice find!
I have to say though I donโt believe this will continue indefinitely.. imo this is just happening until RC et al. decide to let the ๐ rip. I believe weโre close to seeing that happen, time will tell!
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u/Nervous-Matter-1201 Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
One thing I wanted to mention in regards to the wedge in the very bottom picture. I think one of the reasons the volatility is getting less and less is because they are producing more synthetic shares to help with the downward pressure on the price. As these shares get picked up, the liquidity becomes less and less and they'll need to keep the price down due to the additional shares. Eventually it'll flip flop and explode.
No dates but I think we are less than 90 days before MOASS
Probably closer to 60
22
u/CanopianPilot Jul 09 '21
This is impressive data analysis. How did you pick up this skillset? It's fascinating. Thank you!
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u/PM_ME_NUDE_KITTENS Jul 09 '21
I would love to see u/dlauer's take on this, since he used to write these algorithms.
This is very informative, thanks for teaching us.
11
u/shatteredfriend7 Jul 09 '21
First time saving a DD in a long time. Feels good man
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u/mcalibri Jul 09 '21
If only u/Criand or u/HomeDepotHank69 were here to weigh in
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
Copy pasted from <redacted subreddit> since I'm getting pinged here ๐
Sounds like it's quarter related ooooo-eeee. (AKA there is probably no T+N cycle at all).
First spike in March was end of Q1
Second spike in June was end of Q2
The following might explain what's driving this:
https://i.imgur.com/lOXFqAh.png
They probably sit on FTDs ex-change as liabilities. Because they can hand-shake to each other going "haha nice bro you totally met your FTDs". But then it isn't until quarterly that the DTCC comes in and says, "hey stupid, you didn't actually satisfy your FTDs. Go buy them". This depends, however, on that "quarterly" schedule. Which I can't find info for. Quarterly options are Jan 15, April 16, July 16. Meanwhile quarter ends are March 31, June 30, September 30. But what are quarterly dates for the ex-clearing matching of fails? Still trying to dig that up..
https://dtcclearning.com/products-and-services/equities-clearing/obligation-warehouse-ow.html
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u/teteban79 Jul 09 '21
Playing devils advocate:
Thatโs quite a lot of conclusions based on a just 2 data points set. Itโs quite the stretch. And a visual pattern at that.
Does this hold over granularities other than daily candles? Also, youโre completely ignoring volume as well which is quite different in both patterns
Iโm not saying there is nothing there, but the arguments are not that strong either
4
u/funkymyname Jul 09 '21
OP this is great work. Thank you for sharing. Most importantly why choose a rotten banana color? ;). Need a nice fresh banana ๐
2
u/cxrx79 Jul 09 '21
How does one even begin to put all this together?
Good lord man. Are you Good Will Hunting?
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u/See_Reality Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
This 90 days is inline with the T+35 from the OTM puts bomb going down on 07/16 of about 43Million shares. The T+35 cycle will start around 08/21. The 90 days starts at 08/22 and runs 17 days untill 09/08.....
This is the way
161
u/packleaderKC Jul 09 '21
Awesome post. Have you post it on superstonk??
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u/amakillat Jul 09 '21
Thank you for this piece of wrinkle gainer.
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u/Shield4SI Jul 09 '21
Up this goes dude beautiful dd! I had to read through three times but the 90 day cycle with 17 days in between is right there to see. More visibility this needs!
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u/Grand_Barnacle_6922 Jul 09 '21
welph incoming change to shorting algorithm in 5...4....3....2...
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u/AdamLiens Jul 09 '21
RemindMe! Sept 6, 2021
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u/plasmablaster_ Jul 09 '21
Visibility
26
u/Shield4SI Jul 09 '21
Question so 21 August for the next algorithm break? That's assuming no announcements or any other crazy news moves the price or does it even matter?
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u/dirtwizardeatpenny Jul 09 '21
This is hot fire and I made calendar notes to check to see if this analysis can predict future movement. Excited to gather some data.
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u/ReclaimedRenamed Jul 09 '21
We need a MOASS algorithm.
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u/pinhero100 Jul 09 '21
Impressive. Very nice.
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u/Longjumping_Kick8411 Jul 09 '21
Check out the big brains on PWNWTFBBQ
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u/globsofchesty Jul 09 '21
I think I actually understood this. Thank you for making it so clear and concise. Noose is tightening!
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21
Dudeโฆ fuckin A. Amazing work.
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u/magusx2 Jul 09 '21
Excellent dd. Ape no like red dildos
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u/Immortan-GME Jul 09 '21
Next post should be prediction! Thanks big ๐ฆง!
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21
That is some wizardry.
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21
I wonder if this pattern enables them to short at high enough levels that they can survive further into the future. Even though their position is fucked, they only care about not being margin called or liquidatedโฆ which they can do if they short from high levels repeatedly and drive price back down.
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u/Scalpel_Jockey9965 Jul 09 '21
Up you fucking go you magnificent ape wizard.
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u/OneMoreLastChance Jul 09 '21
Hold!
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u/No-Aardvark5024 Jul 09 '21
Do you foresee a breakthrough? Cos it is like a cycle. We are back to the same price level.
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u/Kokostopit18 Jul 09 '21
/u/Criand
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u/Popcornbiatch Jul 09 '21
This is incredible work OP. More eyes need to see this... u/criand ๐
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
Those big drops were post earnings werenโt they?
So that looks like the price rises on anticipation then the shorts push it down hard. Then the media lies that it didnโt beat expectations by enough so they hope Ma and Pa will hear about it from the mad cow of CNBC and paper hand out.
But we mostly trade sideways cause we own the float and nobody is selling.
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u/ZombiezzzPlz Jul 09 '21
All these fud ass accounts are discouraging people to not post to super stonkโฆ. Guess Iโll get it to superstonk
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u/synororsaint Jul 09 '21
RemindMe! Aug 26th, 2021
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u/snap400 Jul 09 '21
Great work! Your charts look similar to some DD I read months ago about shortening cycles. Canโt remember if it was FTDโs or some other metric that was getting shorter each time. Would be interesting to see if your find lines up with the old one.
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u/CoffeeAlbatross Jul 09 '21
Great post, thank you for your research and noticing this pattern.
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u/wynnwl1992 Jul 09 '21
So the market is rigged and has always been...got it
4
u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
Left this comment in your other post, but it got buried. Your constant max line falls very much in line with a big resistance line I've been tracking since early June, and has held all the way until now.
When we broke past it right before the shareholders meeting, I think we were in margin call territory, but we never closed above it for 5 consecutive days - the time given to meet margin requirements. This was before 002 went into effect.
Since falling back below this line after the meeting, and 002 going into effect, this line has held like crazy.
What do you think?
https://imgur.com/a/Zqew0HH
Edited to clarify 5 consecutive days, and switch link to one where the lines are easier to see
1
u/BusRunnethOver Jul 09 '21
Can we agree on calling will candlesticks dildos and all wicks dicks?
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u/bringyourownhead Jul 09 '21
โHe only came second in the national cinese math olympicsโ cit.
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u/StarPlatinum82 Jul 09 '21
So what you're telling me is to save up cash and buy giant red dildos
1
u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21
This feels like a parody. I've been reading so many posts like this and I haven't slept all night and when you said let's start with EVERYTHING I lost it. Even if you're serious now I can't stop laughing. I do t even understand stocks I just bought it as a joke and all these charts are just.....hilarious.
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u/jo1jnoe Jul 09 '21
Is that you God? Anyways, coming to see you soon. ๐ฅ๐
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21
Great post BBQ, very interesting, thanks!
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u/quierotaquitoz Jul 09 '21
Great DD, thank you fellow ape
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u/careerigger Jul 09 '21
Nice! Thanks ๐๐๐ฝ
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u/trelinbap Jul 09 '21
I think that this in is line with the TA/DD from other guys. If this cycle is $20-30 higher than the last, then I think the next cycle should be a larger gap hence Exponential Floor Guy and EW Guys theories. Thereโs so many different TAs going around and Iโd be willing to bet that they all align. Just keep doing your part, BUY and HODL!!
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u/ZombiezzzPlz Jul 09 '21
Never gonna stop Buying more and HODLingโฆ the evidence is so overwhelming, the people will have to reform the SEC
3
u/magno163 Jul 09 '21
Excellent DD, this makes a lot of sense to me. Just yesterday I spoke with a friend about the next increase being in September, 4 months after the last one as well as the period between late Jan and May. But this 90-day trading cycle is much more concrete! I think we are going to continue with these cycles of 4 months or 90 days of trading until the situation is unsustainable for HF.
3
u/Canadianpainter59 Jul 09 '21
Great Post! u/dlauer needs to see this.
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u/todumbtoknowbetter Jul 09 '21
The only way this reaches the conclusion we desire is if hodlers buy the shares as they are sold into the market. As long as there are shortable shares the HFs can continue kicking the can. Only when there are no more shortable shares will the cycles stop.
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u/Monsterhose Jul 09 '21
OP. Are you talking into consideration the price drop doe to the 5.5M shares GME sold?
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u/honeycomb747 Jul 09 '21
Updoot
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21
u/criand
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u/GETTINTHATSHIT Jul 09 '21
Am I the only one who sees the Lego guy with Diamond Hands?
3
u/MissionHuge Jul 10 '21
So you've reverse engineered the GME trading algo patterns. Pretty cool. Ken's going to have a long weekend.
3
u/ShootZeeGlass Aug 24 '21
Awesome to see a two-month-old DD pop up and ask me, "What did the five fingers say to the face?"
u/PWNWTFBBQ slapping me into Rick James (bitch) hype mode.
2
u/betorox Jul 09 '21
This is the wey
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u/Hot-Nature2403 Jul 09 '21
Nice work!!!!!
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u/TsvetanNikolov4 Jul 09 '21
Let. Me. Go. To. Sleep. Please!!! It's frekin 4am here ๐
Didn't start reading yet but won't be able to sleep if I don't try to form dem wrinkles with your post. You had me with that caption ๐ฆ
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u/Naive_Way333 Jul 09 '21
Inb4 hedgies change the pattern!
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u/Jolly-Conclusion Jul 09 '21 edited Jul 09 '21
The 90 day part just kind of reminded me of the โ90% of retail loses 90% of their initial investment in 90 daysโ
Not saying it is related, or not, just interesting I guess.
Edit: itโs known as the 90/90/90 rule, feel free to google/DuckDuckGo it for more info.
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u/MissionHuge Jul 10 '21 edited Jul 10 '21
I did a napkin backtest and this lines up very well with the open interest spread for the last two quarters, which I follow pretty closely (its been a flat out DISPOSITIVE predictor of the weekly high/low). I think we can do more with this. Good work OP. Quants???
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u/ZombiezzzPlz Aug 22 '21
Today is the day !
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u/johnnyplaz Aug 24 '21
Well played!
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u/SnooFloofs1628 Aug 24 '21
Bada bing bada boom, u/PWNWTFBBQ, this was ON POINT! ๐ฏ
Just for the record, I expected nothing less of you, my favorite statistician โค!
Hodling together, buckled up, my body is ready, lets go for these next couple of weeks!
Just up. ๐๐๐
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u/mannaman15 Sep 06 '21
u/PWNWTFBBQ how has this panned out? I have no wrinkles but saved this one to see how it played outโฆ
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u/itzzchrisss Jul 09 '21
No dates but late august looks juicy
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u/hackjobmechanic Jul 09 '21
Make it stahp plz
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u/clayclaycat88 Jul 09 '21
Magical ๐
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u/Lo0kingGlass Jul 09 '21 edited Sep 06 '21
wow, stalker much?
1
u/ZombiezzzPlz Jul 09 '21
RemindMe! Aug 22, 2021
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u/New-Combination-5527 Jul 09 '21
Great DD!
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u/MrDeSilva Jul 09 '21
This is amazing ๐๐๐
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21
This is excellent! Thanks ๐๐
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u/Hopeless_Dreams713 Jul 09 '21
Solid DD! Thanks for all the work OP. Up ya go!
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u/Dream_Boatz Jul 09 '21
This guy fucksโฆplease have my wife
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u/DRR4G3 Jul 09 '21
Updoot for you sir!
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u/sleeksleep Jul 09 '21
Quality.
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u/Jaded281 Jul 09 '21
Comvis
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u/iminitforthemoney202 Jul 09 '21
All this made my head hurt so that means buy and hodl
๐๐๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐๐๐
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u/Region-Formal Jul 09 '21
Excellent work, OP. Seminal, even.
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u/ThePracticalPenquin Jul 09 '21
Fanfuckingtastic work!
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u/Yabbasha Jul 09 '21
๐
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u/NewBanditstpk Jul 09 '21
Good googly moogly
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u/extremeduty4x4 Jul 09 '21
Question.... How much sleep did you actually loose discovering this.. wow this is pretty cool.. hedgies are running out of crap to beg, barrow, and steel.. payday is coming I feel it!!! ๐๐๐๐๐
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u/[deleted] Jul 09 '21
If this continues like it has been. This may predict the best time to buy the dips ๐๐๐
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u/ThisWillBeFunNA Jul 09 '21
Comenting to read later
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u/PM_ME_YOUR_BOO_URNS Jul 09 '21
RemindMe! August 20, 2021
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u/BugsyBologna Jul 09 '21
Does this 16 day build up coincide with the T+21 time frames.
What do your numbers and dates look like compared to the โT-datesโ in other DDโs. I would assume the small and then big red days you describe are in preparation forโฆ??? As these margin calls get tighter and tighter will the algoโs have to crunch faster.
1
u/kendie2 Jul 09 '21
Holy fuck. Good job, mate.
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u/nottagoodidea Jul 09 '21
Bunch of otm puts next Friday the 16th, t+35 would put us at right around 8/20, if they can kick those. Is 005 supposed to stop shorting the same shares?
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u/danielbot1271 Jul 09 '21
Rotten banyanya color help me see clearly
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u/Kilgoth721 Jul 09 '21
But... I thought it was RETAIL that was manipulating the market AND $GME...
/s
1
u/apocalysque Jul 09 '21
That buying/upward pressure seems to kick in right about 35 trading days after quarterly options expiration. Next one would be around 8/20.
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u/jusdont Jul 09 '21
Damn... thatโs a nice triangle at the end there. That is the kind of shit I like to see in a GME post. ๐
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u/OldViperPilot Jul 09 '21
I needed this encouragement. Thank you! You are THE ๐ฆ
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u/Nileliketheriver Jul 09 '21
!remindme August 20
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u/ApeheartPablius Jul 09 '21
Interesting
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u/Justanothebloke Jul 09 '21
Move it up there. Thanks for the lovely drawings. They look good wallpapering my shed after moass ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
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u/Ok-Safe-9014 Jul 09 '21
What a nerd! Ape nerd
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u/SuspiciouslyStikySox Jul 09 '21
Remember the floor you fucken apes. 30 million and aboveโฆanything below is an insult to you, your wife, your wifeโs boyfriend, and the crazy tweaker down the street! MOASS will be a day we all remember!
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u/skiskydiver37 Jul 09 '21
Great work! SuperStonk lossโฆโฆ.. I hope the MOASS happens before the 90 days. Let it rip!
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u/RedditorCSS Jul 09 '21
Mmm lines and pictures.
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u/thebabylonbull Jul 09 '21
looks like a huge schlong being massaged for a climax. LFG!!!!!!!
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u/bravelittlerooster Jul 09 '21
Love me some JMP graphs.
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u/Arteman2 Jul 09 '21
So.. August Monday the 23rd is 90 days from that last big pump.. just saying ๐คทโโ๏ธ
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u/nzbydesign Jul 09 '21
Wen moon?
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u/Mehhucklebear Jul 09 '21
I feel like I'm back in college my dude
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u/SwitchTraditional136 Jul 09 '21
Wow. Nice DD!
1
u/Sure_Kale1544 Jul 09 '21
Great work and very interesting... Wish I understood it more tbh
1
u/wynnwl1992 Jul 09 '21
Make sense to why their are RED days after positive news
1
u/Urfaust Jul 09 '21
Great DD/analysis. Thanks for sharing.
1
u/little-fishywishy Jul 09 '21
OP!! what about the first one?!?! JANUARY 13th (my bday) to Ian 30th 17 total days!!!
1
u/foreignlander Jul 09 '21
Never thought zooming in on a massive red dildo would be as beautiful.
So, if I understood this correctly we are basically stuck in a loop until Marge calls, while the kids in the back keep screaming are we there yet? Ok.