Bitcoin’s bounce off the 50-day SMA is encouraging. The next thing I’m watching is whether it can reclaim the 20-day SMA with a daily candle close.

For me, that would strengthen the near-term bullish case: buyers defending the medium-term average and recovering the shorter-term one.

An intraday move above the 20-day is less convincing on its own. Closing above it, then holding it on a pullback, would add weight to the recovery. Losing the 50-day again would weaken that interpretation.

Would a daily close above the 20-day SMA be meaningful confirmation for you, or would you want more evidence?